Enerji ve Ulaşım Vergileri Ekonomik Gelişmenin Belirleyicisi mi Yoksa Sonucu mu? Avrupa Birliği’nden Panel Fourier Nedensellik Bulguları

Abstract

Artan çevresel sorunlar ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri doğrultusunda, çevre vergilerinin ekonomik gelişme üzerindeki etkisi son yıllarda akademik ve politik tartışmaların merkezinde yer almaktadır. Özellikle enerji ve ulaşım vergileri, çevresel dışsal maliyetlerin içselleştirilmesi ve kamu gelirlerinin artırılması açısından önemli politika araçları olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, enerji ve ulaşım vergilerinin reel kişi başı gelir üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin literatürde kesin bir görüş birliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma, 1995–2024 döneminde Avrupa Birliği’ne üye 26 ülkede kişi başına reel GSYH ile enerji ve ulaşım vergisi gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmektedir. Ekonometrik analizler yapısal kırılmaların zamanı, sayısı ve biçimine ilişkin önsel varsayımlara ihtiyaç duymadan yumuşak geçişli yapısal değişimleri modelleyen panel Fourier KPSS durağanlık ve panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik yöntemleri ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular enerji vergilerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedenselliğin yalnızca Lüksemburg’da, kişi başına gelirden enerji vergisi gelirlerine doğru nedenselliğin ise İrlanda, Fransa, Avusturya, Slovenya, Estonya, İspanya ve Hollanda’da geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ulaşım vergilerine ilişkin bulgularda ise ulaşım vergilerinden kişi başına gelire doğru nedensellik Danimarka, Letonya ve Finlandiya’da gözlenirken; kişi başına gelirden ulaşım vergilerine doğru nedensellik Belçika, Finlandiya ve Letonya’da tespit edilmiştir. Özellikle Letonya ve Finlandiya için elde edilen çift yönlü nedensellik bulgusu, ulaştırma sektörü ile kişi başına gelir arasında karşılıklı bir etkileşim olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Çevre Vergisi
• Enerji ve Ulaşım Vergisi
• Panel Fourier KPSS Durağanlık Testi
• Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamato Nedensellik Testi
• Avrupa Birliği

Are Energy and Transport Taxes Drivers or Outcomes of Economic Development? Panel Fourier Causality Evidence from the EU

Abstract

The impact of environmental taxes on economic development has become a central issue in academic and policy debates in recent years, driven by increasing environmental challenges and sustainability concerns. In particular, energy and transport taxes have emerged as key policy instruments for reducing environmental externalities and increasing public revenues. However, there is no clear consensus in the literature regarding the effects of energy and transport taxes on real GDP per capita. This study examines the causal relationship between real GDP per capita and energy and transport tax revenues in 26 European Union member states over the period 1995–2024. The econometric analysis is conducted using panel Fourier KPSS stationary and panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality methods, which allow for modeling smooth structural changes without requiring prior assumptions about the timing, number, or form of structural breaks. The empirical findings reveal that causality from energy taxes to GDP per capita is valid only for Luxembourg, whereas causality from GDP per capita to energy tax revenues is identified for Austria, Estonia, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain. Regarding transport taxes, causality from transport taxes to GDP per capita is observed in Denmark, Finland, and Latvia, while causality from GDP per capita to transport taxes is detected in Belgium, Finland, and Latvia. Notably, the bidirectional causality identified for Latvia and Finland indicates a mutual interaction between the transport sector and real GDP per capita in these two countries.

Keywords

• Environmental Taxes
• Energy and Transport Taxes
• Panel Fourier KPSS Stationary Test
• Panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Causality Test
• European Union

Supporting Institution

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Ethical Statement

It is declared that scientific and ethical principles have been followed while carrying out and writing this study and that all the sources used have been properly cited.

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