The Effect Of The Pandemic on Exchange Rates: An Application on Turkey

Abstract

While the global powers are dealing with the social problems created by the COVID-19 pandemic, they should not neglect the economic changes created by this pandemic. The most important of these economic changes in developing countries with high fragility is exchange rates because exchange rates can directly affect many of the macroeconomic variables, from inflation to foreign trade, from the balance of payments to interest rates. In countries with high fragility due to the effect of the pandemic, economic uncertainty causes fluctuations in the exchange rate. In this study, the impact of the number of new cases and the number of new deaths for the process of the COVID-19 pandemic on the exchange rate in Turkey is examined. The daily data consider the number of new cases, the number of new deaths and the exchange rate for the period of 16.03 -06.05.2020. The results of the co-integration test show that there is a long-term relationship between the number of new cases and the number of new deaths and the exchange rate. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have a significant effect on the exchange rate causing uncertainty in the economy. We can say that the uncertainty created by the pandemic in the economy and the long-term consequences of the policies implemented affect the exchange rate.

Keywords

• Pandemic
• COVID-19
• exchange rate

The Effect of the Pandemic on Exchange Rates: An Application on Turkey

Abstract

While the global powers are dealing with the social problems created by the COVID-19 pandemic, they should not neglect the economic changes created by this pandemic. The most important of these economic changes in developing countries with high fragility is exchange rates because exchange rates can directly affect many of the macroeconomic variables, from inflation to foreign trade, from the balance of payments to interest rates. In countries with high fragility due to the effect of the pandemic, economic uncertainty causes fluctuations in the exchange rate. In this study, the impact of the number of new cases and the number of new deaths for the process of the COVID-19 pandemic on the exchange rate in Turkey is examined. The daily data consider the number of new cases, the number of new deaths and the exchange rate for the period of 16.03 -06.05.2020. The results of the co-integration test show that there is a long-term relationship between the number of new cases and the number of new deaths and the exchange rate. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have a significant effect on the exchange rate causing uncertainty in the economy. We can say that the uncertainty created by the pandemic in the economy and the long-term consequences of the policies implemented affect the exchange rate.

Keywords

• Pandemic
• COVID-19
• exchange rate

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