Research Article
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Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality

Year 2024, , 43 - 67, 22.03.2024

Çağla Oduncular , Fatma Dahın , Eylül Kabakçı Günay , Meltem Ince Yenilmez

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1409068

Abstract

Climate change increases its severity day by day and poses a great threat to our world. Climate change problems almost cause the global economic system to be questioned. This issue is also very important for China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, which are expressed as E7 (developing) countries. Climate change forecasts for many countries predict that temperatures will rise as precipitation increases or decreases. Technological improvements are predicted to play an important role in mitigating and adapting to the negative consequences of climate change. This study aims to determine the effect of climate change on the economic growth of E7 countries between the years 2004-2021 using panel data methods. Analysis was done with the Stata 15 program. In the study, firstly, the literature on climate change and economic growth is included. Afterwards, the economic consequences of climate change are discussed. In the following section, solutions that will be effective in combating climate change are explained. Then, the empirical analysis and the obtained findings were included and the study was concluded with the conclusion and evaluation. All variables are statistically significant. Accordingly, while temperature and precipitation negatively affect GDP; Urbanization, population growth and HDI positively affect GDP. According to the consequences of the analysis, it was concluded that climate change negatively affected economic growth.

Keywords

Economic Growth Climate Change E7 Panel Data Methods.

References

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  • [26] Fankhauser S, Sehlleier F, Stern N. Climate Change, Innovation and Jobs. Climate Policy, 2008; 8(4): 421-429.
  • [27] Alagidede P, Adu G, Frimpong P. The Effect of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Environ Econ Policy Stud, 2016; 18: 417-436.
  • [28] Knight KW, Schor Juliet B. Economic Growth and Climate Change: A Cross-National Analysis of Territorial and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in High-Income Countries. Sustainability, 2014; 6(6): 3722-3731.
  • [29] Akram N, Gulzar A. Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 2013; 23(1): 31-54.
  • [30] Ceesay E, Ndiaye MB. Climate Change, food Security and Economic growth Nexus in the Gambia: Evidence from an Econometrics Analysis. Research in Globalization, 2022; 5: 1-11.
  • [31] Nawaz A, Siddique H, Majeed M. The Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis. Bulletin of Energy Economics, 2016; 4(4): 359-365.
  • [32] Dell M, Jones B, Olken B. Climate Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2008, 4(3), 66-95.
  • [33] Bernauer T, Koubi V, Kalbhenn A, Ruoff G. Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Conflict. Berlin Conference on Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change 2010, Berlin, 2010.
  • [34] Belford C, Delin H, Ceesay E, Ahmed Y, Jonga R. Climate Change Effect on Economic Growth: Mixed Empirical Evidence. International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management, 2020; 5(2): 99-110.
  • [35] Kara E, Diken A. Climatic Change: The Effect of Rainfall on Economic Growth. Süleyman Demirel University Visionary Journal, 2020; 11(28): 665-679.
  • [36] Belford C, Delin H, Ceesay E, Ahmed Y, Sanyang L, Jonga R. The impact on climate change on economic growth based on time series evidence, 1960-2016. Internatioal Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management, 2020; 5(4): 305-318.
  • [37] Dumrul Y, Kılıçaslan Z. Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 2017; 6(4): 336-347.
  • [38] Gülbahar O. (2008). Küresel Isınma, Turizme Olası Etkileri ve Türkiye. KMU İİBF Dergisi, 2008; 10(15): 161-162.
  • [39] Başoğlu A. Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Ekonomik Etkileri. KTÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2014; (7): 175-196.
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  • [44] Leenders M, Chandra Y. Antecedents and consequences of green innovation in the wine industry: The Role of channel structure. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2013; 25(2): 203-218.
  • [45] Chen YS. LBT. The influence of green innovation performance on corporate advantage in Taiwan. Journal of Business Ethics, 2006; 67(4): 331-339.
  • [46] Kemp R, Pearson P. Final report MEI project about measuring eco-innovation. UM Merit, Maastricht, 2007; 10(2): 1-120.
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  • [55] OECD. Energy and Climate Policy: Bending the Technological Trajectory, OECD Studies on Environmental Innovation, OECD Publishing, 2012. (Accessed April, 2023). https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/energy-and-climate-policy_9789264174573-en
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  • [63] Yerdelen Tatoğlu F. Panel veri ekonometrisi stata uygulamalı, Beta Publishing, 6. Press, İstanbul, 2021.
  • [64] Yerdelen Tatoğlu F. İleri panel veri analizi stata uygulamalı. Beta Publishing, 2. Press, İstanbul, 2013.
  • [65] Brown CH, Clement CR, Epps PL, Wichmann S. The paleobiolinguistics of domesticated chili pepper (Capsicum spp.). Ethnobiology Letters, 2013; 4: 1-11.
  • [66] Ali SN. Climate change and economic growth in a rain-fed economy: How much does rainfall variability cost Ethiopia? EEA Working Paper Series, 2012; 1-37.
  • [67] Akram N. Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies? Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 2012; 19(2):1-18.
  • [68] Kotz M, Levermann A, Wenz L. The effect of rainfall changes on economic production. Natureresearch, 2022; 601(7892): 223-227.

Year 2024, , 43 - 67, 22.03.2024

Çağla Oduncular , Fatma Dahın , Eylül Kabakçı Günay , Meltem Ince Yenilmez

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1409068

Abstract

References

  • [1] Odusola A, Abidoye B. Climate change and economic growth in africa: An econometric analysis. Journal of African Economies, 2015; 24(2): 1-25.
  • [2] Köse İ. İklim değişikliği müzakereleri: Türkiye'nin Paris Anlaşması'nı imza süreci. Ege Staratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2018; 9(1): 55-81.
  • [3] Bodansky D. International Law and the Design of a Climate Change. U. Luterbacher, & D. F. Sprinz (in) International Relations and Global Climate Change. The MITI Press, London, 2001; 201-219.
  • [4] Keskin MH, Kökyay F. Paris Anlaşmasına giden süreçte AB İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre Politikaları. Kafkas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2020; 0(25): 289-314.
  • [5] UNDP. The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2022. United Nations, 2022. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2022.pdf (14.04.2023)
  • [6] McGuinan C, Reynolds R, Wiedmer D. Poverty and climate change: Assessing impacts in developing countries and the initiatives of the international community, 2002.
  • [7] Kadıoğlu M. Türkiye’de iklim değişikliği risk yönetimi. Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği II. Ulusal Bildiriminin Hazırlanması Projesi Yayını, 2012.
  • [8] Artan S, Hayaloğlu P, Seyhan B. Türkiye’de çevre kirliliği, dışa Açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 2015; 13(1): 308-325.
  • [9] Çetin M, Doğan İ, Işık H. Enerji tüketiminin çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkisi: Bir panel veri analizi. International Anatolia Academic Online Journal Social Sciences Journal, 2014; 2(1): 15-29.
  • [10] Mutlu A. Küresel kamusal mallar bağlamında sağlık hizmetleri ve çevre kirlenmesi: Üretim, finansman ve yönetim sorunları. Maliye Dergisi, 2006; 150: 53-78.
  • [11] Auffhammer M. The (Economic) impact of climate change: Some implications for Asian economies. ADBI Working Paper, 2019; 1051: 1-27.
  • [12] Kahn ME, Mohaddes K, Ng R, Peseran M, Raissi M, Yang JC. Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis. IMF Working Paper19/215, 2019; 1-58.
  • [13] Başoğlu A, Telatar OM. İklim değişikliğinin etkileri: Tarım sektörü üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama. KTÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2013; 6: 8-25.
  • [14] Akalın M. İklim değişikliğinin tarım üzerindeki etkileri: Bu etkileri gidermeye yönelik uyum ve azaltım stratejileri. Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2014; 7(2): 351-378.
  • [15] Hayaloğlu P. İklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2018; 9(25): 51-62.
  • [16] Ladrera R, Cagasan U. A review on the impact of climate change on agriculture sector: Its implication to crop production and management. Eurasian Journal of Agricultural Research, 2022; 6(1): 52-61.
  • [17] Dumrul Y, Kılıçaslan Z. Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 2017; 6(4): 336-347.
  • [18] Xiang T, Malik T, Hou J, Ma J. The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: A Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis, 1961-2013. Agriculture, 2022; 12: 1-20.
  • [19] Jatuporn C, Takeuchi K. Assesing the Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Economy in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Panel Data Analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022; 30(3): 8123-8132.
  • [20] Hamilton JM, Tol R. The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism and Recreation. Working Papers FNU-52, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, 2004.
  • [21] Mishev P, Mochurova M. Climate Change Impacts on Tourism. International Conference Global Environmental Change: Challenges to Science and Society in Southeastern Europe. Sofia, Bulgaria, 2008.
  • [22] Ramasamy R, Swamy A. Global Warming, Climate Change and Tourism: A Review of Litarature. Cultur Revista de Cultura e Turismo, 2012; 6(3): 72-98.
  • [23] Agnew MD,Viner D. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on International Tourism. Tourism and Hospitality Research. 2001; 3(1): 37-60.
  • [24] Dereli M, Boyacıoğlu E, Terzioğlu M. İklim Değiişinamik Panel Veri Analizi ile İncelenmesi. Türk Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2019; 3(4): 1228-1243.
  • [25] Goods C. Climate Change and Employment Relations. Journal of Industrial Relations, 2017; 59(5): 670-679.
  • [26] Fankhauser S, Sehlleier F, Stern N. Climate Change, Innovation and Jobs. Climate Policy, 2008; 8(4): 421-429.
  • [27] Alagidede P, Adu G, Frimpong P. The Effect of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Environ Econ Policy Stud, 2016; 18: 417-436.
  • [28] Knight KW, Schor Juliet B. Economic Growth and Climate Change: A Cross-National Analysis of Territorial and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in High-Income Countries. Sustainability, 2014; 6(6): 3722-3731.
  • [29] Akram N, Gulzar A. Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 2013; 23(1): 31-54.
  • [30] Ceesay E, Ndiaye MB. Climate Change, food Security and Economic growth Nexus in the Gambia: Evidence from an Econometrics Analysis. Research in Globalization, 2022; 5: 1-11.
  • [31] Nawaz A, Siddique H, Majeed M. The Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis. Bulletin of Energy Economics, 2016; 4(4): 359-365.
  • [32] Dell M, Jones B, Olken B. Climate Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2008, 4(3), 66-95.
  • [33] Bernauer T, Koubi V, Kalbhenn A, Ruoff G. Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Conflict. Berlin Conference on Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change 2010, Berlin, 2010.
  • [34] Belford C, Delin H, Ceesay E, Ahmed Y, Jonga R. Climate Change Effect on Economic Growth: Mixed Empirical Evidence. International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management, 2020; 5(2): 99-110.
  • [35] Kara E, Diken A. Climatic Change: The Effect of Rainfall on Economic Growth. Süleyman Demirel University Visionary Journal, 2020; 11(28): 665-679.
  • [36] Belford C, Delin H, Ceesay E, Ahmed Y, Sanyang L, Jonga R. The impact on climate change on economic growth based on time series evidence, 1960-2016. Internatioal Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management, 2020; 5(4): 305-318.
  • [37] Dumrul Y, Kılıçaslan Z. Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 2017; 6(4): 336-347.
  • [38] Gülbahar O. (2008). Küresel Isınma, Turizme Olası Etkileri ve Türkiye. KMU İİBF Dergisi, 2008; 10(15): 161-162.
  • [39] Başoğlu A. Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Ekonomik Etkileri. KTÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2014; (7): 175-196.
  • [40] EDGAR. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, 2022. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ (11.04.2023).
  • [41] Işık S. Ekonomi-Doğa Çatışmasına Bir Çözüm Olarak Yeşil Yeni Düzen. PhD Thesis, Bursa Uludag University, 2022.
  • [42] Barbier EB. Global Governance: The G20 and a Global Green New Deal 2010. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2010; 4(2010-2).
  • [43] Tekin Z. Sosyal bilimlerde güncel konular ve multi-disipliner yaklaşımlar, İklim Değişikliği ile Mücadelede Yeşil İnovasyon Yönetimi, Gökhan Ofluoğlu, İKSAD Uluslararası Yayınevi, Ankara, 2020.
  • [44] Leenders M, Chandra Y. Antecedents and consequences of green innovation in the wine industry: The Role of channel structure. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2013; 25(2): 203-218.
  • [45] Chen YS. LBT. The influence of green innovation performance on corporate advantage in Taiwan. Journal of Business Ethics, 2006; 67(4): 331-339.
  • [46] Kemp R, Pearson P. Final report MEI project about measuring eco-innovation. UM Merit, Maastricht, 2007; 10(2): 1-120.
  • [47) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK and New York, 2022.
  • [48] OECD. Aligning Policies for a Low-carbon Economy, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264233294-en
  • [49] CBDDO (Presidential Digital Transformation Office), Yeşil Teknolojiler. 2023. https://cbddo.gov.tr/SharedFolderServer/Genel/2..%20Aras%CC%A7t%C4%B1rmaRaporu-Yes%CC%A7ilTeknolojiler.pdf (Accessed April, 2023).
  • [50] Howes S, Dobes L. Climate change and fiscal policy : A report for APEC. Washington DC: World Bank, East Asia and Specific Region: Office of the Chief Economist, 2011.
  • [51] WEF R, Brende B, Botwright K. Accelerating cecarbonization through trade in climate goods and services. World Economic Forum, 2022. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Accelerating_Decarbonization_through_Trade_2022.pdf
  • [52] UEF. Universal Ecological Fund. The Truth Behind the Climate Changes, 2019. https://feu-us.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/The-Truth-Behind-the-Climate-Pledges.pdf (Accessed April, 2023).
  • [53] World Energy Council. World Energy Trilemma Index 2021. United Kingdom, 2021.
  • [54] Scholten DC. An energy transition amidst great power rivalry. Journal of International Affairs, 2019-2020; 73(1): 195-204.
  • [55] OECD. Energy and Climate Policy: Bending the Technological Trajectory, OECD Studies on Environmental Innovation, OECD Publishing, 2012. (Accessed April, 2023). https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/energy-and-climate-policy_9789264174573-en
  • [56] MIT Technology Review Insights. The Green Future Index. MIT Technology Review, 2022. https://mittrinsights.s3.amazonaws.com/GFI22report.pdf (Accessed March, 2023).
  • [57] WB. World Bank. 2022. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG (Accessed April, 2023).
  • [58] FAOSTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2023.
  • [59] WB. World Bank. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2023. (Accessed April, 2023).
  • [60] UNDP. UNDP Human Development Reports, 2022.
  • [61] Hsiao C. Analysis of panel data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003.
  • [62] Frees EW. Longitudinal and panel data analysis and applications in the social sciences. Cambridge University Press, New york, 2004.
  • [63] Yerdelen Tatoğlu F. Panel veri ekonometrisi stata uygulamalı, Beta Publishing, 6. Press, İstanbul, 2021.
  • [64] Yerdelen Tatoğlu F. İleri panel veri analizi stata uygulamalı. Beta Publishing, 2. Press, İstanbul, 2013.
  • [65] Brown CH, Clement CR, Epps PL, Wichmann S. The paleobiolinguistics of domesticated chili pepper (Capsicum spp.). Ethnobiology Letters, 2013; 4: 1-11.
  • [66] Ali SN. Climate change and economic growth in a rain-fed economy: How much does rainfall variability cost Ethiopia? EEA Working Paper Series, 2012; 1-37.
  • [67] Akram N. Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies? Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 2012; 19(2):1-18.
  • [68] Kotz M, Levermann A, Wenz L. The effect of rainfall changes on economic production. Natureresearch, 2022; 601(7892): 223-227.
There are 68 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Political Science (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Çağla Oduncular 0000-0002-0445-3686

Fatma Dahın 0000-0002-8890-1836

Eylül Kabakçı Günay 0000-0001-5547-4316

Meltem Ince Yenilmez 0000-0002-4689-3196

Publication Date March 22, 2024
Submission Date December 24, 2023
Acceptance Date February 13, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Oduncular, Ç., Dahın, F., Kabakçı Günay, E., Ince Yenilmez, M. (2024). Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality. International Journal of Energy Studies, 9(1), 43-67. https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1409068
AMA Oduncular Ç, Dahın F, Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M. Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality. Int J Energy Studies. March 2024;9(1):43-67. doi:10.58559/ijes.1409068
Chicago Oduncular, Çağla, Fatma Dahın, Eylül Kabakçı Günay, and Meltem Ince Yenilmez. “Mind the Gap Between the Economic Effect of Climate Change and the Reality”. International Journal of Energy Studies 9, no. 1 (March 2024): 43-67. https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1409068.
EndNote Oduncular Ç, Dahın F, Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M (March 1, 2024) Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality. International Journal of Energy Studies 9 1 43–67.
IEEE Ç. Oduncular, F. Dahın, E. Kabakçı Günay, and M. Ince Yenilmez, “Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality”, Int J Energy Studies, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 43–67, 2024, doi: 10.58559/ijes.1409068.
ISNAD Oduncular, Çağla et al. “Mind the Gap Between the Economic Effect of Climate Change and the Reality”. International Journal of Energy Studies 9/1 (March 2024), 43-67. https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1409068.
JAMA Oduncular Ç, Dahın F, Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M. Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality. Int J Energy Studies. 2024;9:43–67.
MLA Oduncular, Çağla et al. “Mind the Gap Between the Economic Effect of Climate Change and the Reality”. International Journal of Energy Studies, vol. 9, no. 1, 2024, pp. 43-67, doi:10.58559/ijes.1409068.
Vancouver Oduncular Ç, Dahın F, Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M. Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality. Int J Energy Studies. 2024;9(1):43-67.