Governance, dependency, and performance in nuclear megaprojects: A strategic analysis of the Akkuyu NPP

Abstract

This study examines the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) as a strategic governance system within Türkiye’s long-term energy transition. While existing research has primarily focused on the technical, environmental, and economic aspects of nuclear energy, limited attention has been given to the governance mechanisms that shape high-risk megaprojects. To address this gap, the study develops an integrated analytical framework combining SWOT and PESTEL approaches to capture multidimensional strategic dynamics.

Methodologically, the research employs systematic qualitative content analysis based on more than 100 academic, institutional, and policy documents. The dual-framework coding structure enables the identification of interactions across political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal dimensions.

The findings indicate that policy continuity, advanced Generation III+ reactor technologies, and technology transfer function as key enablers of long-term performance. However, significant structural vulnerabilities emerge, including exchange-rate volatility, foreign dependency, and persistent challenges in achieving social acceptance. The Build–Own–Operate (BOO) model has a dual effect: it alleviates financing constraints but increases geopolitical and institutional dependency risks.

The qualitative findings suggest a governance–dependency–performance mechanism in which structural dependency may mediate the relationship between governance quality and project outcomes, while social legitimacy may moderate this effect. By moving beyond descriptive strategic analysis, this study provides a mechanism-based explanation of governance-performance linkages in nuclear megaprojects.

The study contributes by conceptualizing nuclear megaprojects as governance-intensive systems and by introducing an integrated SWOT–PESTEL framework linking macro-environmental conditions, internal capabilities, and governance mechanisms. The findings offer policy-relevant insights for strengthening regulatory autonomy, stakeholder engagement, and performance-based governance in large-scale energy investments.

Keywords

• Nuclear energy
• Strategic management
• Sustainability
• Energy policy

Ethical Statement

The author declares that this study is based exclusively on publicly available academic publications, institutional reports, and policy documents. As the research does not involve human participants, personal data, surveys, interviews, or experimental procedures, ethical committee approval and special legal permission were not required.

References

1. [1] Hansen JE. Storms of my grandchildren: The truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity. Bloomsbury USA, New York, 2010.
2. [2] MIT Energy Initiative. The future of nuclear energy in a carbon-constrained world. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 2018.
3. [3] Sovacool BK. Contesting the future of nuclear power: A critical global assessment of atomic energy. World Scientific, Singapore, 2011.
4. [4] International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2021. 2021. [Online] Available from: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021 (Accessed: 28/07/2026).
5. [5] Flyvbjerg B. What you should know about megaprojects and why: An overview. Project Management Journal 2014; 45(2): 6-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409
6. [6] de Renzio P. The limits of institutional reform in development. International Public Management Journal 2013; 16(3): 461-463. https://doi.org/10.1080/10967494.2013.825511
7. [7] Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye National Energy Plan 2022. 2022. [Online] Available from: https://enerji.gov.tr/Media/Dizin/EIGM/tr/Raporlar/TUEP/T%C3%BCrkiye_National_Energy_Plan.pdf (Accessed: 28/07/2026).
8. [8] International Energy Agency. Energy policies of IEA countries: Turkey 2013 review. 2013. [Online] Available from: https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-policies-of-iea-countries-turkey-2013-review (Accessed: 28/07/2026).

9. [9] World Nuclear Association. Nuclear power in Turkey. World Nuclear Association, 2023. [Online] Available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/turkey.aspx (Accessed: 28/07/2026).
10. [10] Pekar Ç. Nuclear power program in Turkey as a nuclear newcomer country. İzmir Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 2023; 5(1): 58-66. https://doi.org/10.47899/ijss.1311365
11. [11] Scott WR. Institutions and organizations: Ideas, interests, and identities. 4th ed. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2014.
12. [12] Fukuyama F. What is governance? Governance 2013; 26(3): 347-368. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12035
13. [13] Agyekum EB, Ansah MNS, Afornu KB. Nuclear energy for sustainable development: SWOT analysis on Ghana’s nuclear agenda. Energy Reports 2020; 6: 107-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.11.163
14. [14] Kessides IN. The future of the nuclear industry reconsidered. Energy Policy 2012; 48: 185-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.008
15. [15] Fahim F, Al Farabi A, Hasan MS, Sayam SMNR. Nuclear energy in Bangladesh: A SWOT analysis. Heliyon 2024; 10(11): e31933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31933
16. [16] El Hafdaoui H, Khallaayoun A, Al-Majeed S. Renewable energies in Morocco. Energy Conversion and Management: X 2025; 26: 100967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100967
17. [17] Prno J. Social licence to operate in mining. Resources Policy 2013; 38(4): 577-590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.09.010
18. [18] Moffat K, Zhang A. Social licence to operate. Resources Policy 2014; 39: 61-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.11.003
19. [19] Bayraktar M, Yüksel O. Analysis of the nuclear energy systems as an alternative propulsion system option on commercial marine vessels by utilizing the SWOT-AHP method. Nuclear Engineering and Design 2023; 407: 112265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2023.112265
20. [20] El-Emam RS, Constantin A, Bhattacharyya R, Ishaq H, Ricotti ME. Nuclear and renewables in multipurpose integrated energy systems: A critical review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2024; 192: 114157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.114157
21. [21] Geels FW. Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy 2002; 31(8-9): 1257-1274. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8
22. [22] Markard J, Raven R, Truffer B. Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects. Research Policy 2012; 41(6): 955-967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2012.02.013
23. [23] Housni H, Amrous N, Daoudi N, Malzi MJ. Strategic analysis for advancing Morocco’s nuclear infrastructure using the PESTELE framework. Nuclear Analysis 2024; 3(2): 100110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucana.2024.100110
24. [24] World Nuclear Association. World nuclear performance report 2021. 2021. [Online] Available from: https://world-nuclear.org/our-association/publications/world-nuclear-performance-report (Accessed: 28/07/2026).
25. [25] International Atomic Energy Agency. Status and trends in spent fuel and radioactive waste management. 2022. [Online] Available from: https://www.iaea.org/publications/14739/status-and-trends-in-spent-fuel-and-radioactive-waste-management (Accessed: 28/07/2026).
26. [26] Mercan MC, Aygün Aİ. Turkey’s nuclear energy ambitions: Past efforts, present strategies, and future directions. Düzce University Journal of Technical Sciences 2025; 3(1): 14-29. https://doi.org/10.70081/duted.1641366
27. [27] Saylan E, Aygün C. Thermoeconomic analysis and environmental impact assessment of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. Journal of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry 2024; 149: 6531-6550. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10973-024-13237-x
28. [28] Saygın M. Stakeholder perceptions and strategic governance of large-scale energy projects: A case study of Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant in Türkiye. Sustainability 2025; 17(17): 7821. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177821
29. [29] Kilic H. Ethical perspective on Turkish environmental impact assessment for nuclear energy. Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering 2016; 5(6): 314-322. https://doi.org/10.17265/2162-5263/2016.06.006
30. [30] Mayring P. Qualitative content analysis: Theoretical foundation, basic procedures and software solution. Klagenfurt, Austria, 2014.
31. [31] Krippendorff K. Content analysis: An introduction to its methodology. 4th ed. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2018.
32. [32] Neuendorf KA. The content analysis guidebook. 2nd ed. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2017.
33. [33] Creswell JW, Poth CN. Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches. 4th ed. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2018.
34. [34] Grant RM. Contemporary strategy analysis. 9th ed. Wiley, Chichester, 2016.
35. [35] Oğul H, Karaağaç MO. Public attitudes toward nuclear power plants in Turkey. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 2019; 25(4): 423-429. https://doi.org/10.5505/pajes.2018.97415
36. [36] Özmen SF. Ecological assesment of Akkuyu nuclear power plant site marine sediments in terms of radionuclide and metal accumulation. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry 2020; 325(1): 133-145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-020-07201-w
37. [37] Eleftheriou G, Tsabaris C, Tsiaras K, Triantafyllou G. Assessment of marine radiological impact after a hypothetical nuclear accident in Eastern Mediterranean Sea. HNPS Advances in Nuclear Physics 2023; 29: 149-155. https://doi.org/10.12681/hnpsanp.5097
38. [38] Kyriakides KA. The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant in Turkey: Some causes for concern. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 2023; 25(3): 340-377. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2022.2143855
39. [39] Yergin D. The quest: Energy, security, and the remaking of the modern world. Penguin Press, New York, 2011.
40. [40] Temocin P. Framing opposition to nuclear power: The case of Akkuyu in Southeast Turkey. Asian Journal of Peacebuilding 2018; 6(2): 243-265. https://doi.org/10.18588/201811.00a047
41. [41] Oxford Analytica. Turkey’s first nuclear plant will face further delays. Expert Briefings 2024. [Online] Available from: https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-ES289607 (Accessed: 28/07/2026).