Potential effects of the carbon border adjustment mechanism on trade between Germany and Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 3, 827 - 883, 25.09.2025

Pauline Sophie Seyfert , Yunus Ozcan

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1717921

Abstract

Turkish-German economic relations have been continuously improving. Germany is one of Türkiye’s leading export destinations and partners in trade. Recently implemented environmental trade policies, such as the CBAM, can affect their trade development mutually. The CBAM is a great example of green trade policy and serves as a carbon taxation instrument linking the emission footprint of goods imported to the European Union to an emission cost, potentially putting strain on trade ties. The CBAM encompasses the aluminum, cement, electricity, fertilizers, hydrogen as well as iron and steel sectors. This study focuses on the CBAM’s potential economic effects on trade relations between both countries, in particular cost effects on Turkish exports to Germany in the iron and steel and aluminum sectors since these two sectors represent a significant economic value in bilateral trade among the CBAM-relevant sectors. The total additional cost on a four-digit Combined Nomenclature (CN) code basis is calculated for the iron and steel and aluminum sectors annually between 2019 and 2024. Furthermore, the relative shares of additional cost in relation to Turkish export trade volumes to Germany on a sectoral basis is examined. According to the findings, the sector to be most affected by the CBAM is the iron and steel sector. On the basis of two individual scenarios each regarding the CN code-based emission intensity data and the carbon pricing levels as well as export trade flows, the potential costs are calculated The cost effects can cause a loss of price competitiveness and a decline in trade volume from the perspective of Turkish exporters. German importers may face increased product prices as well as supply chain risks due to lower availability of competitive products and suppliers from Türkiye. These risks demand policy measures to protect and facilitate trade relations between the two countries.

Keywords

International trade , CBAM , Green trade , Carbon taxation , Emissions trading system

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