Application of Soft Computing Models to Daily Average Temperature Analysis

Abstract

Providing critical information about daily life, weather forecasting has important role for human being. Especially, temperature forecasting is rather important because it affects not only people but also other atmospheric parameters. Various techniques have been used for analysis of the dynamic behaviour of weather. This ranges from simple observation of weather to using computer technology. In this study, ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) have been applied for weather forecasting. To judge the forecasting capability of the proposed models, the graphical analysis and the indicators of the accuracy of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root-Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Determination Coefficient (R²), Index of Agreement (IA), Fractional Variance (FV), Coefficient of Variation (CV, %) are given to  describe  models’ forecasting  performance  and  the  error. The results show that ANFIS exhibited best forecasting performance on weather forecasting compared to ANN and MRA.

Keywords

• Weather forecasting, ANFIS, ANN, MRA

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