Year 2020, Volume 6 , Issue 4, Pages 62 - 68 2021-03-07

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Mustafa Nuri BALOV [1]


The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation. 
Climate Change, Trend Analysis, Extreme Precipitation, Trend analyses, GCM, Bursa, Turkey
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Primary Language en
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-6390-5681
Author: Mustafa Nuri BALOV (Primary Author)
Institution: İSTANBUL GELİŞİM ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : March 7, 2021

Bibtex @research article { ijet809818, journal = {International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET}, issn = {2149-0104}, eissn = {2149-5262}, address = {}, publisher = {İstanbul Gelisim University}, year = {2021}, volume = {6}, pages = {62 - 68}, doi = {10.19072/ijet.809818}, title = {Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey}, key = {cite}, author = {Balov, Mustafa Nuri} }
APA Balov, M . (2021). Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey . International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET , 6 (4) , 62-68 . DOI: 10.19072/ijet.809818
MLA Balov, M . "Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey" . International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET 6 (2021 ): 62-68 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijet/issue/60143/809818>
Chicago Balov, M . "Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey". International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET 6 (2021 ): 62-68
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey AU - Mustafa Nuri Balov Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - doi: 10.19072/ijet.809818 DO - 10.19072/ijet.809818 T2 - International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 62 EP - 68 VL - 6 IS - 4 SN - 2149-0104-2149-5262 M3 - doi: 10.19072/ijet.809818 UR - https://doi.org/10.19072/ijet.809818 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 International Journal of Engineering Technologies Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey %A Mustafa Nuri Balov %T Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey %D 2021 %J International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET %P 2149-0104-2149-5262 %V 6 %N 4 %R doi: 10.19072/ijet.809818 %U 10.19072/ijet.809818
ISNAD Balov, Mustafa Nuri . "Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey". International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET 6 / 4 (March 2021): 62-68 . https://doi.org/10.19072/ijet.809818
AMA Balov M . Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey. IJET. 2021; 6(4): 62-68.
Vancouver Balov M . Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey. International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET. 2021; 6(4): 62-68.
IEEE M. Balov , "Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey", International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 62-68, Mar. 2021, doi:10.19072/ijet.809818