Syria in Transition: Political Promises, Economic Challenges, and the Protection Gap in

Year 2025, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 147 - 158, 24.04.2025

Umutcan Yüksel

Abstract

This policy commentary analyzes Syria’s political transition following the Assad regime’s fall in December
2024, critically examining the implications for refugee protection frameworks, economic reconstruction
policies, and transitional justice mechanisms. Drawing on developments through April 2025, it evaluates the
interim government’s governance approach under Ahmed al-Sharaa, assesses international donor engagement
strategies, and scrutinizes the United Nations High Commissioners for Refugees (UNHCR)’s policy shift toward
facilitating refugee returns. The analysis identifies a significant policy contradiction between the UNHCR’s
established protection thresholds and its operational pivot despite unmet safety conditions. While refugee
return intentions have increased substantially, the commentary argues that current policies prioritize political
expediency over protection principles, potentially undermining sustainable reintegration. It recommends that
international stakeholders maintain principled engagement in Syria’s reconstruction, ensuring return policies
align with genuine improvements in conditions rather than political timetables. This commentary concludes that
effective policy interventions during this critical transition period require balancing immediate humanitarian
needs with long-term stability considerations.

Keywords

Refugee Returns

Syria in Transition: Political Promises, Economic Challenges, and the Protection Gap in Refugee Returns

Abstract

This policy commentary analyzes Syria’s political transition following the Assad regime’s fall in December
2024, critically examining the implications for refugee protection frameworks, economic reconstruction
policies, and transitional justice mechanisms. Drawing on developments through April 2025, it evaluates the
interim government’s governance approach under Ahmed al-Sharaa, assesses international donor engagement
strategies, and scrutinizes the United Nations High Commissioners for Refugees (UNHCR)’s policy shift toward
facilitating refugee returns. The analysis identifies a significant policy contradiction between the UNHCR’s
established protection thresholds and its operational pivot despite unmet safety conditions. While refugee
return intentions have increased substantially, the commentary argues that current policies prioritize political
expediency over protection principles, potentially undermining sustainable reintegration. It recommends that
international stakeholders maintain principled engagement in Syria’s reconstruction, ensuring return policies
align with genuine improvements in conditions rather than political timetables. This commentary concludes that
effective policy interventions during this critical transition period require balancing immediate humanitarian
needs with long-term stability considerations.

Keywords

Refugee Returns, Economic Challenges, Syria

References

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