Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Simineh River Discharge in Lake Urmia Basin

Year 2023, , 15 - 25, 21.09.2023

Hirad Abghari , Mahdi Erfanian

https://doi.org/10.61150/ijonfest.2023010102

Abstract

The Simineh River is heavily reliant on water resources for agricultural aims in the Lake Urmia. However, the hydrological system of the Simineh basin is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change scenarios, primarily due to the presence of diverse topographical features, limited availability of data, and the complex nature of the local climate. This study aimed to simulate the monthly discharge of the Simineh River using the SWAT and assess the effects of climate change on the monthly discharge. Future climate scenarios for the years 2011-2030 were generated using the HadCM3 weather models under the A2, B1, and A1B scenarios. After evaluating the performance of the LARS-WG model in producing precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for the Simineh River watershed, the output of the HadCM3 under the A1B, B1, and A2 scenarios reduced, and the desired meteorological parameters predicted. These predicted values used as inputs for the SWAT model. In this study, assuming no change in land use, the focus was solely on the impact of climate change scenarios. However, appropriate measures can be taken to save the Simineh River's water consumption by optimizing irrigation efficiency through innovative methods. This is crucial because the results indicate that a total reduction of up to 25% in discharge in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change leads to a significant decrease in the annual average inflow to the lake from 570 million cubic meters to 394, 398, and 440 million cubic meters under the A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, respectively. The Simineh River supplies 11% of the water in Lake Urmia, and taking necessary measures to conserve its water resources is essential.

Keywords

Discharge, Downscaling, Had CM3, LARS-WG, Simineh river, SWAT

References

• [1] Abbaspour, K., Vaghefi, S., Srinivasan, R., 2017. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers From the 2016 International SWAT Conference. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute.
• [2] Abou Rafee, S.A., Uvo, C.B., Martins, J.A., Domingues, L.M., Rudke, A.P., Fujita, T., Freitas, E.D., 2019. Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling of the Upper Parana River Basin. Water 11 (5).
• [3] Aggarwal, P.K., Kumar, N.S., Pathak, D.S., 2010. Impacts of climate change on growth and yield of rice and wheat in Upper Ganga Basin. WWF Report 1–44.
• [4] Ahmadalipour, A., Moradkhani, H., Rana, A., 2018. Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin. Climate dynamics, 50, 717-733.
• [5] Amin, A., Nuru, N., 2020. Evaluation of the performance of SWAT model to simulate stream flow of Mojo river watershed: in the upper Awash River basin, in Ethiopia.
• [6] Arunrat, N., Pumijumnong, N., Hatano, R., 2018. Predicting local-scale impact of climate change on rice yield and soil organic carbon sequestration: A case study in Roi Et Province, Northeast Thailand. Agricultural systems, 164, 58-70.
• [7] Bajracharya, A. R., Bajracharya, S. R., Shrestha, A. B., Maharjan, S. B., 2018. Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal. Science of the Total Environment, 625, 837-848.
• [8] Bhatta, B., Shrestha, S., Shrestha, P. K., Talchabhadel, R., 2019. Evaluation and application of a SWAT model to assess the climate change impact on the hydrology of the Himalayan River Basin. Catena, 181, 104082.
• [9] Doulabian, Shahab., Golian, S., Shadmehri Toosi, A.H., Murphy, C., 2021. Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12,1: 166-184.
• [10] Fan, M., Shibata, H., 2015. Simulation of watershed hydrology and stream water quality under land use and climate change scenarios in Teshio River watershed, northern Japan. Ecological Indicators, 50, 79-89.
• [11] Farokhzadeh, B., Choobeh, S., Nouri, H., 20118. Impacts of climate and land-use change on runoff (case study: Balighloo Chai Basin, Iran). International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 9, 3: 86-89.
• [12] Feyereisen, G. W., Strickland, T. C., Bosch, D. D., Sullivan, D. G., 2007. Evaluation of SWAT manual calibration and input parameter sensitivity in the Little River watershed. Transactions of the ASABE, 50(3), 843-855.
• [13] Frei, C., Christensen, J.H., Deque, M., Jacob, D., Jones, R.G., Vidale, P.L., 2003. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 108(D3): 4124.
• [14] Golmohammadi, G., Rudra, R., Dickinson, T., Goel, P., Veliz, M., 2017. Predicting the temporal variation of flow contributing areas using SWAT. Journal of Hydrology, 547, 375-386.
• [15] Horton, P., Schaefli, B., Mezghani, A., Hingray, B., Musy, A., 2006. Assessment of climate‐change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertainty, Hydrological Processes, 20(10), 2091-2109.
• [16] IPCC, 2013. In Clim ate Change 2013: the physical science basis contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA.
• [17] Jenkins, G., Lowe, J., 2003. Handling uncertainties in the UKCIP02 scenarios of climate change. Technical note 44, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
• [18] Jung, C.G., Kim, S.J., 2018. Assessment of the water cycle impact by the Budyko curve on watershed hydrology using SWAT and CO2 concentrations derived from Terra MODIS GPP, Ecological Engineering, 118, 179–190.
• [19] Konapala, G., Mishra, A.K., 2016. Three-parameter based streamflow elasticity model: Application to MOPEX basins the USA at annual and seasonal scales. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20, 6: 2545-2556.
• [20] Lehner, F., Coats, S., Stocker, T. F., Pendergrass, A. G., Sanderson, B. M., Raible, C. C., Smerdon, J. E., 2017. Projected drought risk in 1.5 C and 2 C warmer climates. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(14), 7419-7428
• [21] Lehner, F., Wood, A. W., Vano, J. A., Lawrence, D. M., Clark, M. P., Mankin, J. S., 2019. The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models. Nature Climate Change, 9(12), 926-933.
• [22] Li, C., Fang, H., 2021. Assessment of climate change impacts on the streamflow for the Mun River in the Mekong Basin, Southeast Asia: using SWAT model, Catena, 201, 105199.
• [23] Liu, T., Merrill, N.H., Gold, A.J., Kellogg, D.Q., Uchida, E., 2013. Modeling the Production of Multiple Ecosystem Services from Agricultural and Forest Landscapes in Rhode Island. Agricultural Resource Economic, 42 (1), 251–274.
• [24] Liu, Y., Xu, Y., Zhao, Y., Long, Y., 2022. Using SWAT model to assess the impacts of land use and climate changes on flood in the upper Weihe river, China. Water, 14(13), 2098.
• [25] Luo, M., Liu, T., Frankl, A., Duan, Y., Meng, F., Bao, A., ... De Maeyer, P., 2018. Defining spatiotemporal characteristics of climate change trends from downscaled GCMs ensembles: how climate change reacts in Xinjiang, China. International Journal of Climatology, 38(5), 2538-2553.
• [26] López-Ballesteros, A., Senent-Aparicio, J., Martínez, C., Pérez-Sánchez, J., 2020. Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece). Science. Total. Environmental, 733, 139299.
• [27] Lucas-Borja, M. E., Carrà, B. G., Nunes, J. P., Bernard-Jannin, L., Zema, D. A., Zimbone, S. M., 2020. Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(11), 1956-1973.
• [28] Mansouri Daneshvar, M. R., Ebrahimi, M., Nejadsoleymani, H., 2019. An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and statistics. Environmental Systems Research, 8(1), 1-10.
• [29] Marahatta, S., Aryal, D., Devkota, L. P., Bhattarai, U., Shrestha, D., 2021. Application of SWAT in hydrological simulation of complex mountainous river basin (Part II: climate change impact assessment). Water, 13(11), 1548.
• [30] Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., ... Zhou, B., 2021. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2.
• [31] Milly, P. C., Dunne, K. A., Vecchia, A. V., 2005. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438(7066), 347-350.
• [32] Minville, M., Brissette, F., Leconte, R., 2008. Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed. Journal of hydrology, 358(1-2), 70-83.
• [33] Nijssen, B., O’Donnell, G.M., Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 2001. Hydrologic Sensitivity of Global Rivers to Climate Change. Clim. Change. 50 (1–2), 143–175.
• [34] Nilawar, A.P., Waikar, M.L., 2019. Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India. Sci. Total Environ. 650, 2685–2696.
• [35] Osei, M. A., Amekudzi, L. K., Wemegah, D. D., Preko, K., Gyawu, E. S., Obiri-Danso, K., 2019. The impact of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological processes of Owabi catchment from SWAT analysis. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 25, 100620.
• [36] Ouyang, F., Zhu, Y., Fu, G., Lü, H., Zhang, A., Yu, Z., Chen, X., 2015. Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Huangnizhuang catchment. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 29, 1781-1795.
• [37] Paparrizos, S., Maris, F., Matzarakis, A., 2016. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions. Atmospheric Research, 169, 199-208.
• [38] Pongpetch, N., Suwanwaree, P., Yossapol, C., Dasananda, S., Kongjun, T., 2015. Using SWAT to Assess the Critical Areas and Nonpoint Source Pollution Reduction Best Management Practices in Lam Takong River Basin, Environmental, 8, 41–52.
• [39] Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina, M. F., Rahaman, M. H., & Zhai, J., 2021. Assessment of the future impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Mangoky River, Madagascar using ANN and SWAT. Water, 13(9), 1239.
• [40] R¨ais¨anen, J., Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., D¨oscher, R., Graham, L.P., Jones, C., Meier, H.E.M., Samuelsson, P., Will´en, U., 2004. European climate in the late 21st century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynamics 22(1): 13–31.
• [41] Sharafati, A., Pezeshki, E., Shahid, S. et al., 2020. Quantification and uncertainty of the impact of climate change on river discharge and sediment yield in the Dehbar river basin in Iran. Journal of Soils Sediments, 20, 2977–2996.
• [42] Steinschneider, S., Wi, S., Brown, C., 2015. The integrated effects of climate and hydrologic uncertainty on future flood risk assessments. Hydrological Processes, 29(12), 2823-2839.
• [43] Shrestha, S., Bhatta, B., Shrestha, M., Shrestha, P. K., 2018. Integrated assessment of the climate and landuse change impact on hydrology and water quality in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. Science of the Total Environment, 643, 1610-1622.
• [44] Tan, X., Gan, T. Y., 2015. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada. Scientific reports, 5(1), 17767.
• [45] Tan, M. L., Gassman, P. W., Cracknell, A. P., 2017. Assessment of three long-term gridded climate products for hydro-climatic simulations in tropical river basins. Water, 9(3), 229.
• [46] UNFCCC.AddendumPart Two: Action Taken by theConference of the Parties at Its Twenty-First Session (FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.1) and (FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.3). In Proceedings of the Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Twenty-First Session; Paris, France, 30 November–13 December 2015, United Nations: New York, NY, USA; p. 01192.
• [47] Wang, G. Q., Zhang, J. Y., Xuan, Y. Q., Liu, J. F., Jin, J. L., Bao, Z. X., ... Yan, X. L., 2013. Simulating the impact of climate change on runoff in a typical river catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14(5), 1553-1561.
• [48] Wang, Y., Bian, J., Zhao, Y., Tang, J., Jia, Z., 2018. Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 2402.
• [49] Wang, Y., Xu, H. M., Li, Y. H., Liu, L. L., Hu, Z. H., Xiao, C., Yang, T. T., 2022. Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Fujiang River Basin Based on CMIP6 and SWAT Model, Water, 14(22), 3614.
• [50] Xu, X., Wang, Y. C., Kalcic, M., Muenich, R. L., Yang, Y. E., Scavia, D., 2019. Evaluating the impact of climate change on fluvial flood risk in a mixed-use watershed. Environmental Modelling & Software, 122, 104031.
• [51] Zhang, Y., You, Q., Chen, C., Ge, J., 2016. Impacts of climate change on stream flows under RCP scenarios: A case study in Xin River Basin, China. Atmospheric Research, 178, 521-534.
• [52] Zhang, W., Villarini, G., 2017. Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming. Climatic Change, 145(1-2), 249-257.