AB15 Ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Gelir Vergilerinden Tüketim ve Servet Vergilerine Kaydırılmasının Ekonomik Büyüme Oranına Etkileri

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Avrupa Komisyonu’nun AB15 ülkeleri için toplam vergi gelirleri değişmeden vergilerin dolaysız vergilerden dolaylı vergilere kaydırılmasının ekonomik büyümeyi uzun dönemde olumlu etkilediği önerisini genişleme sürecini temsilen Türkiye’yi de dâhil ederek test etmektir. Bu çerçevede 16 ülkenin 1970-2017 dönemi verileri kullanılarak havuzlanmış ortalama grup yöntemi ile elde edilen tahmin sonuçlarına göre gelir-nötr yaklaşım altında vergi gelirlerinin gelir vergilerinden tüketim vergilerine kaydırılması uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Ayrıca bu çalışmada vergilerin ilgili literatürde değinilmeyen kısa dönem etkileri de test edilmiştir. Vergilerin kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi teorik beklentinin aksi yönünde etkileyebildiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonucun arkasında yatan muhtemel nedenler kişisel gelir vergisi ile tüketim vergilerinde ülkelere göre uygulama farklılıkları ve kurumlar vergisinde küçük işletme sayısıdır.

Keywords

• Vergi Yapısı
• İçsel Büyüme
• Gelir-Nötr Yaklaşım

Effects of Shifting Tax Revenues from Income Taxes to Consumption and Property Taxes on Economic Growth Rate in EU15 Countries and Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to test European Commission’s suggestion for EU15 countries that in the long run shifting taxes from direct taxes to indirect taxes without changing total tax revenues affects economic growth positively by including Turkey representing the enlargement process. In this context, according to estimation results obtained by pooled mean group method using 1970-2017 period data of 16 countries, shifting tax revenues from income taxes to consumption taxes under revenue-neutral approach affects economic growth positively in the long run. Moreover, in this study, the short run effects of taxes, which are not mentioned in the relevant literature, are also tested. It has been concluded that taxes can affect economic growth in the short run in the opposite direction of theoretical expectations. The possible reasons behind this result are the differences in the application of personal income tax and consumption taxes in the countries, and the number of small enterprises in corporate income tax.

Keywords

• Tax Structure
• Endogenous Growth
• Revenue-Neutral Approach

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