An Analysis of Social Protection Expenditure Performance in Upper-Middle-Income Countries

Abstract

Social protection expenditures are a fundamental component of welfare policies and economic stability. This study evaluates the performance of social protection expenditures across twenty-six upper-middle-income countries classified according to the World Bank’s Atlas method. Using 2023 data, five key indicators—social protection expenditure, tax revenues, unemployment rate, institutional quality, and the share of the elderly population—were analyzed through the MAIRCA method. The results indicate that Bulgaria, Serbia, and Belarus achieved the highest performance, while Paraguay, Azerbaijan, and South Africa recorded the lowest. Turkey ranked nineteenth, sharing similar structural characteristics with low-performing countries. The findings highlight that fiscal capacity, institutional quality, and demographic structure are the main determinants of social protection performance. The study suggests that countries with low performance should focus on broadening the tax base, improving institutional efficiency, and enhancing the inclusiveness of social protection systems.

Keywords

• social protection expenditures
• institutional quality
• fiscal capacity
• MAIRCA
• upper-middle-income countries

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