AB15 Ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Gelir Vergilerinden Tüketim ve Servet Vergilerine Kaydırılmasının Ekonomik Büyüme Oranına Etkileri

Year 2023, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 107 - 130, 30.06.2023

Orhan Elçi , Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu

https://doi.org/10.30927/ijpf.1162160

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Avrupa Komisyonu’nun AB15 ülkeleri için toplam vergi gelirleri değişmeden vergilerin dolaysız vergilerden dolaylı vergilere kaydırılmasının ekonomik büyümeyi uzun dönemde olumlu etkilediği önerisini genişleme sürecini temsilen Türkiye’yi de dâhil ederek test etmektir. Bu çerçevede 16 ülkenin 1970-2017 dönemi verileri kullanılarak havuzlanmış ortalama grup yöntemi ile elde edilen tahmin sonuçlarına göre gelir-nötr yaklaşım altında vergi gelirlerinin gelir vergilerinden tüketim vergilerine kaydırılması uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Ayrıca bu çalışmada vergilerin ilgili literatürde değinilmeyen kısa dönem etkileri de test edilmiştir. Vergilerin kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi teorik beklentinin aksi yönünde etkileyebildiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonucun arkasında yatan muhtemel nedenler kişisel gelir vergisi ile tüketim vergilerinde ülkelere göre uygulama farklılıkları ve kurumlar vergisinde küçük işletme sayısıdır.

Keywords

Vergi Yapısı, İçsel Büyüme, Gelir-Nötr Yaklaşım

Effects of Shifting Tax Revenues from Income Taxes to Consumption and Property Taxes on Economic Growth Rate in EU15 Countries and Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to test European Commission’s suggestion for EU15 countries that in the long run shifting taxes from direct taxes to indirect taxes without changing total tax revenues affects economic growth positively by including Turkey representing the enlargement process. In this context, according to estimation results obtained by pooled mean group method using 1970-2017 period data of 16 countries, shifting tax revenues from income taxes to consumption taxes under revenue-neutral approach affects economic growth positively in the long run. Moreover, in this study, the short run effects of taxes, which are not mentioned in the relevant literature, are also tested. It has been concluded that taxes can affect economic growth in the short run in the opposite direction of theoretical expectations. The possible reasons behind this result are the differences in the application of personal income tax and consumption taxes in the countries, and the number of small enterprises in corporate income tax.

Keywords

Tax Structure, Endogenous Growth, Revenue-Neutral Approach

References

• Acosta-Ormaechea, S., & Yoo, J. (2012). Tax Composition and Growth: A Broad Cross-Country Perspective, Working Paper WP/12/257, International Monetary Fund.
• Acosta-Ormaechea, S., Sola, S., & Yoo, J. (2019). “Tax Composition and Growth: A Broad Cross-country Perspective”, German Economic Review, 20(4), e70-e106.
• Arnold, J. (2008). Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries, Working Papers No. 643, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economics Department.
• Arnold, J. M., Brys, B., Heady, C., Johansson, Å., Schwellnus, C., & Vartia, L. (2011, February). “Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth”, The Economic Journal, (121), F59-F80.
• Baiardi, D., Profeta, P., Puglisi, R., & Scarbrosetti, S. (2017). Tax Policy and Economic Growth: Does It Really Matter?, Working Paper No: 718, Università di Pavia, Società italiana di economia pubblica.
• Blanchard, O. (2017). Macroeconomics, Pearson Education Inc., Boston.
• Blanchard, O. J., & Fischer, S. (1993). Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MIT Press, Massachusets.
• Commission of the European Communities. (2001). Tax policy in the European Union - priorities for the years ahead, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52001DC0260&from=EN, (15.10.2018).
• Çevik, S., & Oh, C.-G. (2013, June). “Tax Structure and Economic Growth: A Panel Data from OECD Countries”, Regional Industry Review, 36(1), 31-54.
• Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1994). Macro Economics, Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
• Elçi, O. (2021). “Vergi Yapısının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Avrupa Birliği ile Türkiye Arasında Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz”, Doktora Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
• Elshani, A., & Ahmeti, S. (2017). “The Effect of Progressive Tax on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from European OECD Countries”, International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4), 18-25.
• Euorpean Commission. (2006). “Macroeconomic Effects of a Shift From Direct to Indirect Taxation: A Simulation for 15 EU Member States”, Note presented by the European Commission services (DG TAXUD) at the 72nd meeting of the OECD Working Party No. 2 on Tax Policy Analysis and Tax Statistics, Paris, 14-16 November 2006, https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/39494151.pdf, (03.12.2018).
• European Commission. (2021a). The EU's 2021-2027 long-term Budget and NextGenerationEU Facts and Figures, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
• European Commission. (2021b). “The Lisbon Treaty and tax legislation in the EU”, https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/lisbon-treaty-and-tax-legislation-eu_en, (26.12.2021).
• European Council. (2000). Presidency Conclusions Lisbon European Council 23 and 24 March 2000, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/00100-r1.en0.htm, (06.02.2021).
• European Union. (2018). “Founding agreements”, https://europa.eu/european-union/law/treaties_en, (15.10.2018).
• European Union. (2021). “EUR-Lex Access to European Uniom Law – Taxation”, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/chapter/21.html, (25.12.2021). Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. P. (2015). “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182.
• Garner, C. A. (2005). Consumption Taxes: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
• Gerber, C., Klemm, A., Liu, L., & Mylonas, V. (2018). Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications, IMF Workin Paper WP/18/246, International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department.
• Hausman, J. A. (1978, November). “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
• Hubbard, R. G., & O'Brien, A. P. (2017). Macroeconomics, Pearson Education, Boston.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). “Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels”, Journal of Econometrics, (115), 53-74.
• Kappler, M. (2004). Determination of Potential Growth Using Panel Techniques, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-69, Mannheim.
• Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N. (1999). “Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 74, 171-190.
• Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. H. (2005). “Tax Structure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Public Economics, 89, 1027-1043.
• McNabb, K. (2016). Tax Structures and Economic Growth New Evidence from the Government Revenue Dataset, WIDER Working Paper 2016/148, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
• McNabb, K. (2018). “Tax Structures and Economic Growth: New Evidence from The Government Revenue Dataset”, Journal of International Development, 30, 173-205.
• Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Roubini, N. (1998, November). “Growth Effects of Income and Consumption Taxes”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 30(4), 721-744.
• Mutluer, M. K., Öner, E., & Kesik, A. (2010). Teoride ve Uygulamada Kamu Maliyesi, İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.
• OECD. (2016). “Irish GDP up by 26.3% in 2015?” http://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/Irish-GDP-up-in-2015-OECD.pdf, (29.06.2020).
• OECD. (2019). “OECD.Stat - Public Sector, Taxation and Market Regulation”, https://stats.oecd.org/, (08.06.2019).
• OECD. (2020). “Enterprises by business size”, https://data.oecd.org/entrepreneur/enterprises-by-business-size.htm, (27.07.2020).
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999, June). “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
• Poulson, B. W., & Kaplan, J. G. (2008). “State Income Taxes and Economic growth”, Cato Journal, 28(1), 53-71.
• Rhee, T.-h. (2013). “Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation”, American Economics Association Annual Meeting, 2013, San Diego, CA.
• Schwellnus, C., & Arnold, J. (2008). Do Corporate Taxes Produce Productivity and Investment at the Firm Level? Cross-Country Evidence from the Amadeus Dataset, Working Papers No. 641, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economics Department.
• Türk, İ. (1999). Maliye Politikası, Turhan Kitabevi Yayınları, Ankara.
• Widmalm, F. (2001). “Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?” Public Choice, 107(3/4), 199-219.
• Wołowiec, T., Skica, T., & Gercheva, G. (2014). “Income Taxes, Public Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth”, e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly, 10(3), 52-54.
• Xing, J. (2011). Does Tax Structure Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries, WP11/20, Oxfor University, Centre for Business Taxation.