Application of Hubbert Peak Theory to Stimulate Biogas Production

Abstract

Assessing the amount of fossil fuels remained in the subsurface, specifically oil and gas has been debated extensively since the introduction of Hubbert Peak Theory in 1956. The economic model of Pakistan relies greatly on natural gas. Thus, estimating the volume of natural gas recoverable in the future becomes critical for the development of the country. The main objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of Hubbert Peak Theory in order to determine the ultimate gas recovery under a pessimistic scenario assuming that no further reserves will be discovered in the future. This is useful information because reaching the peak will have implications for Pakistan. Data analysis suggests that Pakistan will most probably peak in natural gas production in 2016 and decline afterwards. Year 2055 is perhaps the point around which the production will approach zero. The results are so alarming that if no major initiative is taken by the government to address the issue then Pakistan’s economy will have to face dire consequences. Biogas can serve as a viable alternative to meet the hiking demand of gas, utilizing its own widely available resources. Livestock, bagasse and waste landfills are capable of producing 415.3 million Bcf of biogas annually which if produced today, can substitute 22.5% of the total energy originated from natural gas supplied in the fiscal year 2012-13. The outcomes of this paper might also be applicable to other developing countries having similar resources.

Keywords

• Hubbert Peak Theory, Ultimate Recovery, Natural Gas, Biogas, Pakistan.

References

1. D. Abbott, “Keeping the Energy Debate Clean: How Do We Supply the World’s Energy Needs?”, Proc IEEE, 98, 2010, pp. 42–66. (Article)
2. I. Ganesh, “Conversion of carbon dioxide into methanol – a potential liquid fuel: Fundamental challenges and opportunities (a review)”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 31, 2014, pp. 221–57. (Article)
3. R.W. Bentley, “Global oil & gas depletion: an overview”, Energy Policy, 30, 2002, pp. 189–205. (Article)
4. K.S. Deffeyes, “Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (New Edition)”, Princeton University Press; 2008. (Book)
5. G. Maggio, and G. Cacciola, “A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts ”, Energy Policy, 37, 2009, pp. 4761–70. (Article)
6. Z. Tao, and M. Li, “What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies—A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak”, Energy Policy, 35, 2007, pp. 3145–54. (Article)
7. D.S. Djotaroeno, “Application of Hubbert Peak Oil Theory to Model Life Cycle Cost of Oil Assets in Suriname”, 2010. (Thesis)
8. Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-2013 - Energy. Minist Finance Gov Pak. (Report)

9. M. Al-Husseini, “The debate over Hubbert’s Peak: a review”, GeoArabia, 11 No. 2, 2006. (Article)
10. A. Valero, and A. Valero, “Physical geonomics: Combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion”, Resour Conserv Recycl, 54, 2010, pp. 1074–83. (Article)
11. E. Hemmingsen, “At the base of Hubbert’s Peak: Grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity”, Geoforum 41, 2010, pp. 531–40. (Article)
12. A. Verbruggen, and M. Al Marchohi, “Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy ”, Energy Policy, 38, 2010, pp. 5572–81. (Article)
13. F. Demirmen, “Reliability and Uncertainty in Reserves: How and Why the Industry Fails, and a Vision for Improvement”, Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2005. (Article)
14. J. Wells, “Crude Oil: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes it Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production”, DIANE Publishing, 2007. (Article)
15. S. Zielinksi, “Timing of peak oil uncertain”, Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 88, 2007, pp. 171–3. (Article)
16. U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves. US EIA 2012. (Report) [17]M. Manhas,
17. “Natural Gas: High Stakes, High and Uncertainty
18. PowerGroup powered by ZEMA Suite – Enterprise Data
19. Management Software, 2013. (Article) ZE
20. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). US EIA 2013. (Report)
21. IEA - Gas. Int Energy Agency IEA. (Report)
22. CGES study forecasting global natural gas supply and demand and trade to 2035. Nat Gas Eur 2012. (Report)
23. Information of Pakistan. Minist Inf Broadcast Natl Herit Gov Pak. (Website)
24. Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-2013 - Population, Labor Force and Employment. Minist Finance Gov Pak. (Report)
25. Pakistan GDP Annual Growth Rate. Trading Econ 2013. (News)
26. I. Gomes, “Natural Gas in Pakistan and Bangladesh: current issues and trends”, University of Oxford: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2013. (Article)
27. International Energy Statistics. US EIA. (Website)
28. The World Factbook - Pakistan. CIA 2013. (Website)
29. Pak-Iran gas pipeline to be completed by 2014. The Nation. (News)
30. TAPI pipeline gaining momentum. UPI 2013. (News)
31. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-2012 - Energy. Minist Finance Gov Pak. (Report)
32. S.S. Amjid, M.Q. Bilal, M.S. Nazir, and A. Hussain, “Biogas, renewable energy resource for Pakistan”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 15, 2011, pp. 2833–2837. (Article)
33. Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-2013 - Agriculture. Minist Finance Gov Pak. (Report)
34. M.A. Sheikh, “Renewable energy resource potential in Pakistan”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 13, 2009, pp. 2696–702. (Report)
35. M.J.S. Zuberi, S.Z. Hasany, M.A. Tariq, and M. Fahrioglu, “Assessment of biomass energy resources potential in Pakistan for power generation”, 2013 Fourth Int. POWERENG, 2013, pp. 1301–1306. (Conference Paper) Energy Electr. Drives
36. Brief on Solid Waste Management in Pakistan, 2005. (Report)
37. Pak-EPA. Guideline for Solid Waste Management, 2005. (Report)
38. OECD Environmental Data Compendium 2006–2008, Paris, 2007. (Report)
39. M.J.S. Zuberi, and S.F. Ali, "Greenhouse effect reduction by recovering energy from waste landfills in Pakistan", Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 44, 2015, pp. 117-131. (Article)
40. S.Z. Ilyas. “Biogas Support Program Is a Reason for its Success in Pakistan”, Am-Eurasian J Sci Res 1 1, 2006, pp. 42–45. (Article)
41. Milestones - Pakistan Dairy Development Company (PDDC). Dairy Pak. (Website)
42. M.H. Sahir, and A.H. Qureshi, “Assessment of new and renewable energy resources potential and identification of barriers to their significant utilization in Pakistan”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 12, 2008, pp. 290–298. (Article)
43. M.A. Sheikh, “Energy and renewable energy scenario of Pakistan”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 14, 2010, pp. 354–63. (Article)
44. M. Gustavsson, “Biogas Technology-solution in Search of Its Problem: A Study of Small-scale Rural Technology Introduction and Integration ”, Univ., Section Human Ecology, 2000. (Article)
45. S.C. Bhattacharya, R.A. Attalage, M. Augustus Leon, G.Q. Amur, P.A. Salam, and C. Thanawat, “Potential of biomass fuel conservation in selected Asian countries ”, Energy Convers Manag, 40, 1999, pp. 1141–1162. (Article)
46. W. van Nes, J. Lam, F. ter Heegde, and F. Marree, “Building Viable Domestic Biogas Programmes: Success Netherlands Development Organisation, 2009. (Report)
47. Sector Development”, SNV
48. Pakistan Energy Outlook 2010-11 to 2025-26 - Executive Summary (Petroleum Institute of Pakistan, 2012. (Report)
49. M. Yazdanie, “Renewable Energy in Pakistan: Policy Strengths, Challenges & the Path Forward”, ETH Zurich, 2010. (Article)
50. T.A. Seadi, D. Rutz, H. Prassl, M. Köttner, T. Finsterwalder, and S. Volk, “Biogas Handbook”, University of Southern Denmark Esbjerg, 2008. (Book)