Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method

Abstract

In Handong on Jeju Island, South Korea, an investigation was carried out which looked at risk factors in wind farm development. Wind measurement data was collected over a one-year period in Handong, and reference wind data for a fifteen-year period for the same area was collected from a meteorological observatory at Gujwa. The measure-correlate-predict (MCP) method was applied to obtain long-term artificial wind data for Handong, in order to estimate variations in the annual energy production (AEP) and the net present value (NPV) which in turn helped determine the risk factors. The AEP and the NPV were calculated under the assumption of having installed a Vestas 2 MW wind turbine at the measurement site. Various Probabilities of Exceedance (PoEs) were predicted for both the AEP and the NPV in order to clarify the range of possible risk factors. Other economic analyses were also conducted and studied for comparison. The deviation in mean wind speed, the AEP, and the NPV were estimated assuming that the annual average wind speed varies in a cycle of fifteen years. The results showed an NPV deviation of USD 2,612,738 at a probability of exceedance of 50% (P50) within the estimated NPV range, a finding which could not be ignored. The NPV variation (-17% to +24% over fifteen years) was found to be greater than the corresponding variations for either wind speed or the AEP.

Keywords

• Wind Energy; Wind data; Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP); Risk factor; Probability of Exceedance (PoE)

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