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TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 11 - 26, 30.06.2023

Abstract

Discussing the various aspects of the growing unemployment rate, the debate of protectionism vs free trade, the rising call for "trade is bad", and "trade is eating jobs", we tried to finally establish a bivariate model linking trade balance and un-employment rate in the Euro Area by taking the quartile time-series data from 2008: Q1 – 2021: Q3. The paper studies the impact of the trade balance on the un-employment rate in the short as well as long-run using the VEC model. The estima-tion of Johansen's cointegration test resulted that the model is cointegrated in the long and with a 1 percent rise in the trade balance, the unemployment is reduced by 2.52 percent with the statistical significance of 1 percent. However, the Wald test rejected the presence of any short-run causality between the considered variables.

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There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Sociology (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Osama Shaikh This is me

Zubair Arif Shah This is me

Publication Date June 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Shaikh, O., & Shah, Z. A. (2023). TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH. International Journal of Social And Humanities Sciences, 7(1), 11-26.
AMA Shaikh O, Shah ZA. TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH. IJSHS. June 2023;7(1):11-26.
Chicago Shaikh, Osama, and Zubair Arif Shah. “TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH”. International Journal of Social And Humanities Sciences 7, no. 1 (June 2023): 11-26.
EndNote Shaikh O, Shah ZA (June 1, 2023) TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH. International Journal of Social And Humanities Sciences 7 1 11–26.
IEEE O. Shaikh and Z. A. Shah, “TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH”, IJSHS, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 11–26, 2023.
ISNAD Shaikh, Osama - Shah, Zubair Arif. “TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH”. International Journal of Social And Humanities Sciences 7/1 (June 2023), 11-26.
JAMA Shaikh O, Shah ZA. TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH. IJSHS. 2023;7:11–26.
MLA Shaikh, Osama and Zubair Arif Shah. “TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH”. International Journal of Social And Humanities Sciences, vol. 7, no. 1, 2023, pp. 11-26.
Vancouver Shaikh O, Shah ZA. TRADE BALANCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EURO REGION: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH. IJSHS. 2023;7(1):11-26.