Tourism and Food Prices: Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the tourism sector on food price inflation. To measure the impact of the tourism sector on food prices, a time series analysis was made with the monthly data of the Türkiye’s economy covering the period January 2014 – June 2024. According to the findings, total tourism revenues (TEX) and tourism revenues per tourist (PEX) in the Türkiye’s economy affect the food inflation to total consumer inflation ratio (FPI) with a two-month lag. A billion USD increase in TEX increases FPI by approximately 7.98 points after two months. A 100 USD increase in PEX decreases FPI by 2.8 points. A second model identified a parabolic relationship between PEX and FPI with a five-month lag. These findings suggest that strategic planning of the tourism sector is essential for ensuring food security in Türkiye. This parabolic relationship, an original finding of the study, has important implications for policymakers, particularly when formulating inflation, tourism, and agricultural policies. Necessary policy recommendations are presented in the conclusion section.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Food Inflation
• Food Security
• Price Index
• Tourism Revenues

Turizm ve Gıda Fiyatları: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada turizm sektörünün gıda fiyat enflasyonu üzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. Turizm sektörünün gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini ölçmek amacıyla Türkiye ekonomisinin Ocak 2014 - Haziran 2024 dönemini kapsayan aylık verileri kullanılarak zaman serisi analizi yapılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, Türkiye ekonomisindeki toplam turizm gelirleri (TEX) ve turist başına turizm gelirleri (PEX), gıda enflasyonunun toplam tüketici enflasyon oranına (FPI) iki aylık gecikmeyle etkilemektedir. TEX'te bir milyar ABD doları tutarındaki artış, FPI'yi iki ay sonra yaklaşık 7,98 puan artırmaktadır. PEX'te 100 ABD doları tutarındaki artış, FPI'yi 2,8 puan düşürmektedir. İkinci bir model, PEX ile FPI arasında beş aylık gecikmeyle parabolik bir ilişki tespit etmiştir. Bu bulgular, Türkiye'de gıda güvenliğinin sağlanması için turizm sektörünün stratejik planlamasının elzem olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın özgün bir bulgusu olan bu parabolik ilişki, özellikle enflasyon, turizm ve tarım politikalarının oluşturulmasında politika yapıcılar için önemli çıkarımlara sahiptir. Sonuç bölümünde gerekli politika önerileri sunulmaktadır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Gıda Enflasyonu
• Gıda Güvenliği
• Fiyat Endeksi
• Turizm Gelirleri

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