Analysis of The Asymmetric Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkish Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of inflation shocks on Turkey's economic development using the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) as control variables. Distributed Lag (NARDL) model together with nonlinear cointegration and causality tests, the study covers the period 2005Q1 through 2023Q3. Research supports the presence of asymmetric cointegration between the real exchange rate, inflation, economic growth, and foreign direct investment. In the near run, GDP is negatively impacted by rising inflation while it is positively impacted by dropping inflation. On the contrary, inflationary spikes have a more detrimental influence on economic growth over the long term than inflationary declines. Additionally, a unidirectional causal relationship exists between inflation and the real exchange rate, but a bidirectional causal relationship is shown between economic growth and foreign direct investment. These results highlight the necessity of considering the asymmetric nature of inflation shocks in macroeconomic policy design, especially in developing economies such as Turkey. In addition, the importance of ensuring price stability to support sustainable economic growth can be emphasized by taking into account external factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflows.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Inflation
• Non-Linear Time Series

Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma, enflasyon şoklarının Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkilerini, kontrol değişkenleri olarak reel döviz kuru ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım (FDI) kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) Modeli, doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testlerinin kullanıldığı çalışma 2005:Q1 ile 2023:Q3 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Araştırma, reel döviz kuru, enflasyon, ekonomik büyüme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında asimetrik eşbütünleşmenin varlığını desteklemektedir. Kısa vadede, ekonomik büyüme artan enflasyondan olumsuz etkilenirken, düşen enflasyondan olumlu etkilenmektedir. Aksine, enflasyonist artışlar, uzun vadede ekonomik büyüme üzerinde enflasyonist düşüşlerden daha zararlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Ek olarak, enflasyon ve reel döviz kuru arasında tek yönlü bir nedensel ilişki vardır, ancak ekonomik büyüme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında çift yönlü bir nedensel ilişki gösterilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, özellikle Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde, makroekonomik politika tasarımında enflasyon şoklarının asimetrik doğasının dikkate alınmasının gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca döviz kuru dalgalanmaları ve yabancı sermaye girişleri gibi dışsal faktörler de dikkate alınarak sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin desteklenmesi açısından fiyat istikrarının sağlanmasının önemi vurgulanabilir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enflasyon
• Doğrusal Olmayan Zaman Serileri

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