MUTLAK SATINALMA GÜCÜ PARİTESİ HİPOTEZİ’NİN TEST EDİLMESİ: TÜRKİYE VE DIŞ TİCARET ORTAKLARI UYGULAMASI

Year 2018, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 259 - 285, 26.12.2018

İsmail Küçükaksoy , İsmail Çifçi

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin de aralarında bulunduğu 42 dış ticaret ortağı ülke için 1994:M1-2016:M9 aylık verilerini kullanarak “Mutlak Satınalma Gücü Paritesi-Mutlak SGP Hipotezi” nin geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. SGP hipotezi, belli bir mal ve hizmet sepetinin, aynı para birimi cinsinden fiyatının tüm ülkelerde eşit olması gerektiğini iddia etmektedir. Çalışmada, Türkiye ve Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ortakları için SGP hipotezi, birinci nesil panel birim kök testleri, ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök testiyle araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgu, incelenen ülkelerden 41 ülke için SGP hipotezinin geçerli olduğudur.

Keywords

Satınalma Gücü Paritesi, Reel Döviz Kuru, Panel Birim Kök Testleri, Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı, Yapısal Kırılma

TESTING THE ABSOLUTE PURCHASING POWER PARITY HYPOTHESIS: TURKEY AND FOREIGN TRADE PARTNERS APPLICATION

Abstract

This study aims to investigate validity of “Absolute Purchasing Power

Parity-Absolute PPP” for 42 foreign trade partner countries including

Turkey using monthly data 1994:M1-2016:M9. The PPP state that the price

of a fixed basket o f goods a nd services must be equal in all countries in the

same currency. In this paper the PPP hypothesis has been investigated by

first generation panel unit root tests, second generation panel unit root tests

and panel unit root test with structural breaks for Turkish and Turkish

foreign trade partners. The finding is that the PPP hypothesis is valid for the

41 countries.

Keywords

Purchasing Power Parity, Real Exchange Rate, Panel Unit Root Tests, Cross Section Dependence, Structural Shift

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