ORTADOĞU’DA SİLAHLANMAYI ETKİLEYEN DİNAMİKLER: ARAP BAHARINDA ALICILAR VE TEDARİKÇİLER

Year 2018, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 287 - 309, 26.12.2018

Ferhat Pirinççi

Abstract

Ortadoğu politikasının analizinde önemli bir yeri bulunan silahlanma faaliyetleri, bir dizi faktörün etkisiyle şekillenmektedir. Bu faktörlerin başında ise zaman içinde değişkenlik gösteren tehdit algıları gelmektedir. Bu Tehdit algıları, bölge ülkelerinin çoğunun, gelişmiş silah üretimi kapasitesine sahip olmadığı gerçeğiyle birleştiğinde silahlanma ve tedarikçi ilişkisi daha fazla önem kazanmıştır. Bu çalışma, son dönemde Ortadoğu’da silahlanmayı etkileyen faktörleri analiz ederek silahlanma faaliyetleri ile tedarikçilerin bu faktörlerden etkilenip etkilenmediğini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Sonuç olarak Arap Baharı ile beraber Ortadoğu ülkelerinde önceden mevcut olan tehdit algıları çeşitlendiği bu tehditlerin dengelenmesi veya tehditlerle mücadelenin giderek daha karmaşık hale geldiği görülmektedir. Arap Baharıyla beraber ortaya çıkan veya belirginleşen meydan okumalar, halk hareketleri, artan mezhepsel ve etnik kutuplaşma, radikalleşme, silahlı ve/veya sınır aşan devlet dışı aktörler, bu aktörlerin sahip olduğu silahlar, bölgesel güçler ve özellikle bölge dışı güçlerin krizlere dahli ve petrol fiyatlarının değişmesi olarak ifade edilebilir. Bir yandan konvansiyonel tehditlerle mücadele ederken diğer yandan yeni ortaya çıkan meydan okumaları dengeleme çalışmalarında bölge ülkeleri için silahların niceliği kadar niteliği ve özellikle de silah kaynağı önem kazanmaktadır.

 

Keywords

Ortadoğu’da Silahlanma, Ortadoğu’da Güvenlik, Silah Transferleri, Silah Anlaşmaları, Silah Tedarikçileri

DYNAMICS AFFECTING ARMS PROCUREMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST: RECIPIENTS AND SUPPLIERS IN THE ARAB SPRING

Abstract

Arms procurement that has an important role in the analysis of the Middle East politics is influenced by a number of factors. Threat perceptions that vary over the time are the foremost among these factors. When these threat perceptions are considered together with the fact that many countries in the region do not have sophisticated domestic procurement capabilities, relationship between the arms procurement and supplier become even more important. This study aims to analyze the factors affecting the arms procurement efforts in the Middle East in the recent period in order to investigate whether the armament activities and the suppliers are affected by these factors or not. As a result, the pre-existing threat perceptions in the Middle Eastern countries have been diversified by the Arab Spring process and thus, balancing or struggling with these threats have increasingly become more complex. The challenges that have emerged or become evident with the Arab Spring can be explained as the rise of popular movements, the increasing sectarian and ethnic polarization, the radicalization, the armed and/or transnational non-state actors, weapons possessed by these actors, involvement of the regional and especially the non-regional forces in the crises and the increase in oil prices. For the regional countries, the quality as much as the quantity of the weapons and especially the source of them are gaining importance in struggling with the conventional threats on the one hand, while in balancing the newly-emerging challenges on the other.

Keywords

Arms Procurement in the Middle East, Security in the Middle East, Arms Transfers, Arms Deals, Arms Suppliers

References

• Ben Solomon, Ariel (2014). “Egypt Seeks Russian Arms that Could Undermine Treaty with Israel”, Jerusalem Post, 6 Mart 2014, https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Egypt-seeks-Russian-arms-that-could-undermine-treat-with-Israel-344465, (Erişim Tarihi 10.10.2017).
• Conflict Armament Research Center, (2014). Islamic State Weapons in Iraq and Syria: Analysis of Weapons and Ammunition Captured from Islamic State Forces in Iraq and Syria, September 2014, http://conflictarm.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Dispatch_IS_Iraq_Syria_Weapons.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi 10.10.2017).
• Cordesman, Anthony H.; Sullivan, George; Sullivan, William (2007). Lessons of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War. Center for Strategic & International Studies. http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=10y, (Erişim Tarihi 08.03.2018)
• International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Miltary Balance, 2016. Kemp, Geoffrey (1971). “The International Arms Trade: Supplier, Recipient and Arms Control Perspectives”. Political Quarterly, 42, October-December, 376-389.
• Levine, Paul; Smith, Ron (1997). “The Arms Trade: Winners and Losers”. Economic Policy, 12(25), 335-370.
• Mehta, Aaron “Revealed: Trump's $110 Billion Weapons List for the Saudis”, Defense News, 8 Haziran 2017, https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2017/06/08/revealed-trump-s-110-billion-weapons-list-for-the-saudis/, (Erişim Tarihi 10.10.2017).
• Nan Tian vd. (2017). Trends in Military Expenditure, 2016. SIPRI Fact Sheet. Oweis, Khaled Yacoub; Bakr, Amena (2013). “Saudi Offers Russia Deal to Scale Back Assad Support”, Reuters, 7 Ağustos 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-saudi-russia/exclusive-saudi-offers-russia-deal-to-scale-back-assad-support-sources-idUSBRE9760OQ20130807 (Erişim Tarihi 10.10.2017).
• Perli-Freeman, Sam vd., (2016). Trends in World Military Expenditure. 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet.
• Perlo-Freeman, Sam (2009). Arms Transfers to the Middle East. SIPRI Background Paper.
• Pirinççi, Ferhat (2011). "ABD-Suudi Arabistan Silah Anlaşması". Akademik Orta Doğu Dergisi, 5(2), 61-84.
• Reuters, “3.2 Billion Euros of Egypt-French Arms Deal Financed by Loan from Paris: Sisi”, 1 Mart 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-france-loan/3-2-billion-euros-of-egypt-french-arms-deal-financed-by-loan-from-paris-sisi-idUSKBN0LW0ZN20150228, (Erişim Tarihi 10.10.2017).
• Schenker, David; Trager, Eric (2014). Egypt's Arms Deal with Russia: Potential Strategic Costs, The Washington Institute, Policywatch 2218, 4 Mart 2014, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypts-arms-deal-with-russia-potential-strategic-costs (Erişim Tarihi 10.10.2017).
• SIPRI, (2017), Military Expenditure by Region in Constant US Dollars, 1998-2016.
• SIPRI, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2017/state-major-arms-transfers-8-graphics, Erişim Tarihi 05.03.2018).
• SIPRI, Military Expenditure per Capita, Military Expenditure Database, 2017 Smith, Ron; Humm, Anthony; Fontanel, Jacques (1985). “The Economics of Exporting Arms”. Journal of Peace Research, 22(3), 239-247.
• Wezeman, Pieter D. vd, (2018). Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2017. SIPRI Fact Sheet.
• Yeşiltaş, Murat; Kardaş, Tuncay (Eds.), (2018). Non-State Armed Actors in the Middle East: Geopolitics, Ideology, and Strategy. Palgrave MacMillan.