Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey

Hakan Bozdağ; Hidayet Ünlü

doi:10.24289/ijsser.279088

Research Article

Yapısal kırılma durumunda imalat sanayi ihracatı ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama

Year 2016, , 92 - 102, 03.01.2016

Hakan Bozdağ , Hidayet Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.24289/ijsser.279088

Abstract

Çalışmada, ekonomik büyümenin unsurlarından biri olan imalat sanayi ihracatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Türkiye’de imalat sanayi ihracatı ve GSYİH arasındaki ilişki 2001:Q1-2015:Q2 dönemleri için incelenmiştir. Analiz edilen dönem itibariyle 2008 Dünya Ekonomik Krizinin olası etkileri göz önüne alınarak, seride tek yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Lee ve Strazicich (2013) birim kök testi ve tek kırılmalı Gregory ve Hansen (1996) eş bütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, tek yapısal kırılma durumunda imalat sanayi ihracatı ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Uygulanan nedensellik testlerinin sonucunda Türkiye’de İmalat Sanayi İhracatı ve Ekonomik Büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. Buna göre Türkiye’de ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin desteklendiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

İmalat Sanayi İhracatı, Ekonomik Büyüme, Lee-Strazicich Birim Kök Testi (2013), Gregory-HansenEşbütünleşme Testi, Yapısal Kırılma

References

Abual-Foul, B. (2004); Testing The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence From Jordan, Applied Economics Letters, 11:6, 393-396.
Afxentiou P. ve Serletis A. (2000); Output Growth and Variability of Export and Import Growth: International Evidencefrom Granger Causality Tests, The De-veloping Economies, XXXVIII-2, 141–63.
Awokuse T. O. (2003); Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?, Ca-nadian Journal of Economics, 36(1), 126-136.
Balassa B. (1978); Exports And Economic Growth: Further Evidence, Journal Of Development Economics, 5, 181-189.
Balassa B. (1985); Exports, Policychoices, And Economicg Rowth In Developing Countries After The 1973 Oil Shock, Journal of Development Economics 4(1), 23- 35.
Bhagwati J. (1978); Anatomy And Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes: Liberalization Attemps and Consequences, MA: Ballinger.
Bhagwati J. (1978); Anatomy And Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, The National Bureau Of Economic Research.
Bilgin C. ve Şahbaz A. (2009); Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensel-lik İlişkileri, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2009 8(1): 177-198.
Chaudhary M. A., Shirazi N. S. ve Choudhary M.A.S. (2007); Trade Policy And Eco-nomic Growth In Bangladesh: A Revisit, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 45(1), 1-26.
Chow P.C.Y. (1987); Causality Between Export Growth And Industrial Develop-ment: Empirical Evidence From Newly Industrialized Countries, Journal of Development Economics, 28, 265–76.
Dawson, P. J. (2006); The Export–Income Relationship And Tradeliberalisation In Bangladesh, Journal of PolicyModeling, 28, 889–896.
Demi̇rhan E. (2005); Büyüme Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 60 (4), 75-88.
Enders, W. (2015) Applied Econometrics Time Series (Fourth Edi.), New Jersey USA, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Feder G. (1983); On Exports And Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 12(1- 2), 59- 73.
Halıcıoğlu F. (2007); A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey, EERI Research Paper Series, No 5/2007.
Henriques, I. ve Sadorsky P. (1996); Export-Led Growth Or Growth Driven Ex-ports? The Canadian Case, Canadian Journal of Economics, 3,541–555.
İspi̇r, M. S., Açıkgöz E. B. ve Yılmazer M. (2009); Türkiye’nin Büyüme Dinamiğinde İhracat Mı İthalat Mı Daha Etkin?, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1), 59-72.
Jin J.C. (2000); Openness And Growth: An Interpretation Of Empirical Evidence From East Asian Countries, The Journal Of International Trade & Economic Development: An International And Comparative Review, 9(1), 5-17.
Karagöl E. Ve Serel A. (2005); Türkiye’de İhracat ve GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Kointegrasyon Yöntemiyle İncelenmesi, İ.Ü.İktisat Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, Cilt:50, 1030-1040.
Karım N. (2005); Export and Industrial Development in Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation for Two Way Causation, Pakistan Journal of So-cialSciences, 3 (1), 145-151.
Kazgan G. (1998), Ekonomide Dışa Açık Büyüme, Altın Kitaplar, İstanbul.
Kotil E. ve Konur F. (2010); The Relationship Between Growth And Foreign Trade In Turkey: A Granger Causality Approach (1989-2007), Middle Eastern Fi-nance and Economics, 1(6), 32-40.
Krueger A.O. (1978); Foreign Trade Regimes And Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
Lorde T. (2011); Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico, International Journal of Business, Humanities and Technology, 1(1), 33-44.
Mah J. S. (2005); Export Expansion, Economic Growth And Causality In China, Ap-plied Economics Letters, 12:2, 105-107.
Mamun K.A.A. ve Nath H.K. (2005); Export-Ledgrowth In Bangladesh: A Time Se-ries Analysis, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 361–364.
Marin D. (1992); Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 678-688.
Moosa, Imad A. (1999); Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Austral-ia?, Applied Economics, 31(7), 903-906.
Ram, R. (1985); Exports And Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence, Eco-nomic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-25.
Reppas, P.A. ve Christopoulos D.K. (2005); The Export-Output Growth Nexus: Evi-dence From African And Asian Countries, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27,929– 940.
Panas E. And Vamvoukas G. (2002); Further Evidence On The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis, Applied Economics Letters, Vol.9, pp. 731-735.
Özcan B. ve Özçelebi O. (2013); İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi?, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İİBF Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 20/1, 1-14.
Shan J. ve Tian G.G. (1998); Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai, Australian Economic Papers, 37(2), 195–202.
Smith E. J. (2001); Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Developing Countries? A Case Study of Costa Rica, United Nations Conference On Trade And Development, Policy Issues In International Trade And Commodities Study Series No.7, United Nation Publication, New York and Genevo.
Şi̇mşek M. (2003); İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Verileri ile Analizi, 1960-2002, D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 18(2), 43-63.
Taştan H. (2010); Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkilerinin Spektral Analizi, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi 2(1), 2010, 87-98.
Tuncer İ. (2002); Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat Ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980–2000), Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(9), 90– 106.
Uddin M. G.S. ve Noman A.M.(2009); Causality between Industrial Production And Exports In Bangladesh, 2nd International Conference (GBMF) on World Financial Crisis and Global Business Challenges, SenateBhaban, University of Dhaka, Dhaka.
Ullah S. Zaman, B., Farooq, M. ve A. Javid, (2009); Cointegration and Causality be-tween Exports and Economic Growth In Pakistan, European Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 264-272.
Yavuz M. (2012); Türkiye’de İhracatın Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi, ICE-TEA 2012/UEK-TEK 2012, 1-3 Kasım 2012, İzmir.
Yi̇ği̇di̇m A. ve Köse N. (1997); İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980-1996), Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, 8 (26), 71-85.

Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey

Year 2016, , 92 - 102, 03.01.2016

Hakan Bozdağ , Hidayet Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.24289/ijsser.279088

Abstract

Manufacturıng industry exports is one of the pillars of economic growth. This study, aim to investigate the relationship between manufacturing industry exports and economic growth. For this purpose, the relationship between manufacturing industry exports and GDP for the period 2001:Q1-2015:Q3 was examined in Turkey. As the analyzed period, taking in to account the possible effects of the 2008 World EconomicCrisis, we used Lee and Strazicich (2013) unitroot test which allowing for one structural breaks in series and Gregory and Hansen (1996) one structural break cointegration test. Obtained results from our analysis, there ise long-term relationship between manufacturing industry exports economic growth in the presence of one structural break. Manufacturing exports were found to be two-way causal relationship between the economic growth. According to the causality tests results the manufacturing industry exports support the export led hypothesis in Turkey.

Keywords

Manufacturıng Industry Exports, Economic Growth, Lee-Strazicich Unit Root Test (2013), Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test, Structural Break

References

Abual-Foul, B. (2004); Testing The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence From Jordan, Applied Economics Letters, 11:6, 393-396.
Afxentiou P. ve Serletis A. (2000); Output Growth and Variability of Export and Import Growth: International Evidencefrom Granger Causality Tests, The De-veloping Economies, XXXVIII-2, 141–63.
Awokuse T. O. (2003); Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?, Ca-nadian Journal of Economics, 36(1), 126-136.
Balassa B. (1978); Exports And Economic Growth: Further Evidence, Journal Of Development Economics, 5, 181-189.
Balassa B. (1985); Exports, Policychoices, And Economicg Rowth In Developing Countries After The 1973 Oil Shock, Journal of Development Economics 4(1), 23- 35.
Bhagwati J. (1978); Anatomy And Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes: Liberalization Attemps and Consequences, MA: Ballinger.
Bhagwati J. (1978); Anatomy And Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, The National Bureau Of Economic Research.
Bilgin C. ve Şahbaz A. (2009); Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensel-lik İlişkileri, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2009 8(1): 177-198.
Chaudhary M. A., Shirazi N. S. ve Choudhary M.A.S. (2007); Trade Policy And Eco-nomic Growth In Bangladesh: A Revisit, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 45(1), 1-26.
Chow P.C.Y. (1987); Causality Between Export Growth And Industrial Develop-ment: Empirical Evidence From Newly Industrialized Countries, Journal of Development Economics, 28, 265–76.
Dawson, P. J. (2006); The Export–Income Relationship And Tradeliberalisation In Bangladesh, Journal of PolicyModeling, 28, 889–896.
Demi̇rhan E. (2005); Büyüme Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 60 (4), 75-88.
Enders, W. (2015) Applied Econometrics Time Series (Fourth Edi.), New Jersey USA, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Feder G. (1983); On Exports And Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 12(1- 2), 59- 73.
Halıcıoğlu F. (2007); A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey, EERI Research Paper Series, No 5/2007.
Henriques, I. ve Sadorsky P. (1996); Export-Led Growth Or Growth Driven Ex-ports? The Canadian Case, Canadian Journal of Economics, 3,541–555.
İspi̇r, M. S., Açıkgöz E. B. ve Yılmazer M. (2009); Türkiye’nin Büyüme Dinamiğinde İhracat Mı İthalat Mı Daha Etkin?, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1), 59-72.
Jin J.C. (2000); Openness And Growth: An Interpretation Of Empirical Evidence From East Asian Countries, The Journal Of International Trade & Economic Development: An International And Comparative Review, 9(1), 5-17.
Karagöl E. Ve Serel A. (2005); Türkiye’de İhracat ve GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Kointegrasyon Yöntemiyle İncelenmesi, İ.Ü.İktisat Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, Cilt:50, 1030-1040.
Karım N. (2005); Export and Industrial Development in Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation for Two Way Causation, Pakistan Journal of So-cialSciences, 3 (1), 145-151.
Kazgan G. (1998), Ekonomide Dışa Açık Büyüme, Altın Kitaplar, İstanbul.
Kotil E. ve Konur F. (2010); The Relationship Between Growth And Foreign Trade In Turkey: A Granger Causality Approach (1989-2007), Middle Eastern Fi-nance and Economics, 1(6), 32-40.
Krueger A.O. (1978); Foreign Trade Regimes And Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
Lorde T. (2011); Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico, International Journal of Business, Humanities and Technology, 1(1), 33-44.
Mah J. S. (2005); Export Expansion, Economic Growth And Causality In China, Ap-plied Economics Letters, 12:2, 105-107.
Mamun K.A.A. ve Nath H.K. (2005); Export-Ledgrowth In Bangladesh: A Time Se-ries Analysis, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 361–364.
Marin D. (1992); Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 678-688.
Moosa, Imad A. (1999); Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Austral-ia?, Applied Economics, 31(7), 903-906.
Ram, R. (1985); Exports And Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence, Eco-nomic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-25.
Reppas, P.A. ve Christopoulos D.K. (2005); The Export-Output Growth Nexus: Evi-dence From African And Asian Countries, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27,929– 940.
Panas E. And Vamvoukas G. (2002); Further Evidence On The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis, Applied Economics Letters, Vol.9, pp. 731-735.
Özcan B. ve Özçelebi O. (2013); İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi?, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İİBF Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 20/1, 1-14.
Shan J. ve Tian G.G. (1998); Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai, Australian Economic Papers, 37(2), 195–202.
Smith E. J. (2001); Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Developing Countries? A Case Study of Costa Rica, United Nations Conference On Trade And Development, Policy Issues In International Trade And Commodities Study Series No.7, United Nation Publication, New York and Genevo.
Şi̇mşek M. (2003); İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Verileri ile Analizi, 1960-2002, D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 18(2), 43-63.
Taştan H. (2010); Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkilerinin Spektral Analizi, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi 2(1), 2010, 87-98.
Tuncer İ. (2002); Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat Ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980–2000), Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(9), 90– 106.
Uddin M. G.S. ve Noman A.M.(2009); Causality between Industrial Production And Exports In Bangladesh, 2nd International Conference (GBMF) on World Financial Crisis and Global Business Challenges, SenateBhaban, University of Dhaka, Dhaka.
Ullah S. Zaman, B., Farooq, M. ve A. Javid, (2009); Cointegration and Causality be-tween Exports and Economic Growth In Pakistan, European Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 264-272.
Yavuz M. (2012); Türkiye’de İhracatın Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi, ICE-TEA 2012/UEK-TEK 2012, 1-3 Kasım 2012, İzmir.
Yi̇ği̇di̇m A. ve Köse N. (1997); İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980-1996), Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, 8 (26), 71-85.

There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section	Makaleler
Authors	Hakan Bozdağ Hidayet Ünlü
Publication Date	January 3, 2016
Published in Issue	Year 2016

Cite

APA	Bozdağ, H., & Ünlü, H. (2016). Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 2(1), 92-102. https://doi.org/10.24289/ijsser.279088
AMA	Bozdağ H, Ünlü H. Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research. January 2016;2(1):92-102. doi:10.24289/ijsser.279088
Chicago	Bozdağ, Hakan, and Hidayet Ünlü. “Manufacturing Industry Exports and Economic Growth Relationship in the Case of Structural Break: A Case Study for Turkey”. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research 2, no. 1 (January 2016): 92-102. https://doi.org/10.24289/ijsser.279088.
EndNote	Bozdağ H, Ünlü H (January 1, 2016) Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research 2 1 92–102.
IEEE	H. Bozdağ and H. Ünlü, “Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey”, International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 92–102, 2016, doi: 10.24289/ijsser.279088.
ISNAD	Bozdağ, Hakan - Ünlü, Hidayet. “Manufacturing Industry Exports and Economic Growth Relationship in the Case of Structural Break: A Case Study for Turkey”. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research 2/1 (January 2016), 92-102. https://doi.org/10.24289/ijsser.279088.
JAMA	Bozdağ H, Ünlü H. Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research. 2016;2:92–102.
MLA	Bozdağ, Hakan and Hidayet Ünlü. “Manufacturing Industry Exports and Economic Growth Relationship in the Case of Structural Break: A Case Study for Turkey”. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, vol. 2, no. 1, 2016, pp. 92-102, doi:10.24289/ijsser.279088.
Vancouver	Bozdağ H, Ünlü H. Manufacturing industry exports and economic growth relationship in the case of structural break: A case study for Turkey. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research. 2016;2(1):92-102.

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