PREDICTORS OF POVERTY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LOW INCOME COMMUNITIES IN THE NORTHERN FREE STATE REGION, SOUTH AFRICA

Abstract

Poverty is a global phenomenon and has proven difficult to resolve. Strategies to address it need to be focused on factors associated with poverty through local research as problems differ from region to region. Poverty, together with inequality and unemployment, is one of the three foremost developmental problems in South Africa. This paper presents an analysis of the predictors of poverty of low-income communities in the Northern Free State region, South Africa. Predictors, such as gender of head of household, type of dwelling, property ownership, housing subsidy, quality of service delivery, income and employment, were analysed to determine their impact on poverty in the study region with a specific focus on Zamdela, Kwakwatsi and Tumahole. A total of 2 678 households were included in the survey. The study used aggregate income of households to determine the status and level of poverty. A logistic regression was utilised to determine the impact of the various predictors of poverty. Of all these, the most significant for a household were found to be the gender of the head of the household and employment status. Strategies for poverty alleviation should be focused on local problems by means of local research. The implementation of appropriate policy and projects is also important for success

Keywords

• households, logistic regression, Northern Free State, poverty

References

1. Achia, T.N.O., Wangombe, A. & Khadioli, N. 2010. A logistic regression model to identify key determinants of poverty using demographic and health survey data.
2. European Journal of Social Sciences, 13(1), 38-45. Aliber, M. 2001. Study of the incidence and nature of chronic poverty and development policy in South Africa. Cape Town: University of Cape Town.
3. Alkire, S. 2007. The missing dimensions of poverty data: An introduction. Oxford
4. Development Studies, 35(4), 347-359. Alkire, S. & Foster, J. 2009. Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement. Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHDI).
5. Working Paper no 32. Oxford: University of Oxford. Alkire, S., Apablaza, M. & Jung, E. 2012. Multidimensional poverty measurement for EU-SILC Countries. Oxford Department of International Development,
6. University of Oxford. Bogale, A., Hagedorn, K. & Korf, B. 2005. Determinants of poverty in rural
7. Ethiopia. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 44(2), 101-120. Bradshaw, T.K. 2006. Theories of poverty and anti-poverty programmes and community development. Rural Poverty Research Centre. Colombia: University of Missouri.
8. Coley, R.L., Leventhal, T., Lynch, A.D. & Kull, M. 2013. Relations between housing characteristics and the well-being of low-income children and adolescents. Development Psychologies, 49(9), 1775-1789.

9. Cromwell, E., Luttrell, C., Shepherd, A. & Wiggins, S. 2005. Poverty reduction strategies and the rural productive sectors. Overseas Development Institute.
10. Working Paper 258. London. Cross, C. 2006. Attacking urban poverty with housing: Toward more effective land markets. Pretoria: HSRC.
11. Dunga, S.H. & Sekatane, M.B. 2014. Determinants of employment status and its relationship to poverty in Bophelong Township. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(21), 215-220.
12. Geda, A. Jong, N., Kimenyi, M. & Mwabu, G. 2005. Determinants of poverty in
13. Kenya: A household level analysis. Economic Working Papers. Paper 200544.
14. Gnade, H. 2013. The effect of basic infrastructure delivery on welfare in rural and urban municipalities. Web access: www.econ3x3.org/article. Date of access: 30 March 2016.
15. He, S., Wu, F., Webster, C. & Liu, Y. 2010. Poverty concentration and determinants in China’s urban low-income neighbourhoods and social groups.
16. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 34(2), 328-349. International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD). 2011. Enabling poor rural people to overcome poverty. Rural Poverty report. Web access: www.ifad.org/rpr2011. Date of access: 26 March 2016.
17. International Labour Organization (ILO). 2008. Promotion of rural employment for poverty reduction. International Labour Conference 97th session, Geneva:
18. International Labour Office. Iqbal, Q., Iqbal, N. & Awan, M.S. 2009. Determinants of urban poverty: The case of a medium sized city in Pakistan. International Conference on Applied Economics. 257-272.
19. Islam, R. 2004. The nexus of economic growth, employment and poverty reduction: An empirical analysis. Geneva: Recovery and Reconstruction
20. Department International Labour Office. Kamuzora, C.L. & Gwalema, S. 1998. Aggravation of poverty in rural Bukoba district, Tanzania: Labour constraints, population dynamics and the AIDS epidemic. Research Report. Dar es Salaam: REPOA.
21. Malik, S. 1996. Determinants of rural poverty in Pakistan: A micro study. The Pakistan Development Review, 35(2), 171-187.
22. Minot, N. & Baulch, B. 2005. Poverty mapping with aggregate census data.
23. Review of Development Economics, 9(1), 5-24. Mok, T.Y., Gan, C. & Sanyal. 2007. The determinants of urban household poverty in Malaysia. Journal of Social Sciences, 3(4), 190-196.
24. National Planning Commission (NPC). 2011. National Development Plan (NDP).
25. The Presidency. Pretoria, Government Printer. Rogan, M. 2016. Gender and multidimensional poverty in South Africa: Applying the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). Social Indicators Research, , 987-1006.
26. Rojas, M. 2008. Experienced poverty and income poverty in Mexico: A subjective well-being approach. World Development. 36(6), 1078-1093.
27. Sekhampu, T.J. 2013. Determinants of poverty in a South African township.
28. Journal of Social Sciences. 34(2): 145-153. South African Local Government Association (SALGA). 2010. Estimating a poverty line: An application of free basic municipal services in South Africa. Johannesburg.
29. Streeten, P. 1998. Beyond the six veils: Conceptualization and measuring poverty.
30. Journal of International Affairs. 52(1), 1-31. Statistics SA. 2014. Poverty trends in South Africa, 2006 to 2011. Pretoria, Government Printer.
31. Studies in Poverty and Inequality Institute (SPII). 2007. The measurement of poverty in South Africa Project. Richmond.
32. United Nations (UN). 2003. Human Development Report, 2003 - Millennium
33. Development Goals: A compact among nations to end human poverty. New York: Oxford University Press. United Nations (UN). 2015. Sustainable Development Goals. Web access: goals/. Date of Access: 10 March 2016.
34. Vijaya, R., Lahoti, R. & Swaminathan, H. 2014. Moving from household to the individual: Multidimensional poverty analysis. World Development, 59, 70-81.
35. Wegelin, E.A. & Borgman, K.M. 1995. Options for municipal interventions in urban poverty alleviation. Environment and Urbanization, 7(2), 131-152.
36. Widyanti, W., Suryahadi, A., Sumarto, S. & Yumna, A. 2009. The relationship between chronic poverty and household dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia.
37. Jakarta: SMERU Research Institute. Woolard, I. & Klasen, S. 2007. Determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in South Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 41(5), 897.
38. World Bank. 2001. Poverty Manual. Washington. World Bank Institute.
39. World Bank. 2005. Poverty Manual. Washington. World Bank Institute.
40. World Bank. 2015. World Bank Forecasts Global Poverty to Fall Below 10% for
41. First Time; Major Hurdles Remain in Goal to End Poverty by 2030. Web access: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/10/04/world-bank- forecasts-global-poverty-to-fall-below-10-for-first-time-major-hurdles-remain-in- goal-to-end-poverty-by-2030. Date of access: 5 April 2016.