CIVETS Ülkelerinde Ekolojik Dengenin Stokastik Yakınsaması: Fourier Kantil Birim Kök Testi Yaklaşımı

Year 2023, , 137 - 152, 29.10.2023

Zerrin Dürrü , Gökhan Konat

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1149267

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, ekosistemi tek yönlü inceleyen çalışmalardan farklı olarak iki yönlü ele alan ekolojik denge aracılığıyla incelemektir. İncelemede stokastik yakınsama metodu kullanılmıştır. 1961-2018 dönemi için dinamik nüfus ve güçlü bir iç ekonomik yapıya sahip CIVETS ülkeleri araştırma için seçilmiştir. Kişi başı biyokapasite ile kişi başı ekolojik ayak izi farkı alınarak ekolojik denge yakınsaması test edilmiştir. Geleneksel birim kök testi ADF’nin yanında sonuçları sağlamlaştırmak adına Fourier ADF, farklı kantillerde durum tespiti için Kantil ve Fourier Kantil birim kök testleri kullanılarak araştırma yapılmıştır. Fourier QKS (Quantile Kolmogorov-Simirnov) birim kök testleri sonuçlarında, standart QKS test sonuçlarına nispeten daha fazla yakınsaklık bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Fourier kantil birim kök testi sonuçları, incelenen tüm CIVETS ülkeleri için ekolojik dengede yakınsamanın gerçekleştiğine işaret etmektedir. Sonuç olarak, CIVETS ülkelerindeki ekolojik dengeyi etkileyen nüfus artışı, hızlı sanayileşme, fosil yakıt kullanımı gibi unsurların, ekosistemi dengelemede ve eşitlemede temel politika alanları olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Ekolojik denge, ekolojik ayak izi, biyokapasite, Fourier kantil birim kök testi, yakınsama

Stochastic Convergence of Ecological Balance in CIVETS Countries: The Fourier Quantile Unit Root Test Approach

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the ecosystem through ecological equilibrium, which deals with the ecosystem in two directions, unlike studies that examine it in one direction. Stochastic convergence method is used in the analysis. For the period 1961-2018, CIVETS countries with dynamic populations and a strong domestic economic structure were selected for the study. Ecological balance convergence is tested by taking the difference between biocapacity per capita and ecological footprint per capita. In addition to the traditional ADF unit root test, Fourier ADF, Quantile and Fourier Quantile unit root tests were used to robustify the results. The results of the Fourier QKS (Quantile Kolmogorov-Simirnov) unit root tests show more convergence than the standard QKS test results. The results of Fourier quantile unit root tests indicate that convergence in ecological balance has been realized for all CIVETS countries. As a result, factors affecting the ecological balance in CIVETS countries such as population growth, rapid industrialization and fossil fuel use have been identified as key policy areas in balancing and equalizing the ecosystem.

Keywords

Ecological balance, ecological footprint, biologic capacity, Fourier quantile unit root test, convergence

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