Determinants of the Informal Economy: A Panel ARDL Analysis on OECD Countries

Year 2024, , 30 - 45, 29.02.2024

Erşan Sever , Merve Kaya Ay

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1313304

Abstract

This study aims to identify the determinants of the informal economy in developed and developing economies. In the study, the determinants of the informal economy in 24 OECD countries are estimated using the PMG model with annual data from 1992-2017. According to the findings, it is found that the level of economic development decreases informality, while high inflation and unemployment rates and increases in social security premium increase informality. It is determined that the increase in the number of refugees coming to the country, increases the labor supply and expands the informal economy. Based on these findings, measures such as increasing the level of economic development of countries, controlling inflation and unemployment rates, and enhancing the efficiency of the social security system may help reduce the informal economy. Fiscal policy decisions to be taken in the struggle against the informal economy without improving the performance of macroeconomic indicators will be insufficient.

Keywords

Informal economy, economic development, panel data.

Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Belirleyicileri: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel ARDL Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinde kayıt dışı ekonominin belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada, 24 OECD ülkesinde kayıt dışı ekonominin belirleyicileri 1992-2017 yıllık verileri ile PMG modeli kullanılarak tahmin edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre ekonomik gelişmişlik seviyesinin kayıt dışılığı azalttığı, buna karşın yüksek enflasyon ve işsizlik oranları ile sosyal güvenlik primindeki artışların kayıt dışılığı artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Ülkeye gelen mülteci sayısındaki artışın emek arzını artırarak kayıt dışı ekonomiyi genişlettiği belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgulardan yola çıkarak ülkelerin ekonomik gelişmişlik seviyesinin artırılması, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranlarının kontrol altına alınması, sosyal güvenlik sisteminin etkinliğinin geliştirilmesi gibi önlemlerin kayıt dışı ekonomiyi azaltmaya yardımcı olabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır. Makroekonomik göstergelerdeki performans iyileştirilmeden kayıt dışı ekonomi ile mücadelede alınacak olan mali politika kararlarının yetersiz kalacağı görülmektedir.

Keywords

Kayıt dışı ekonomi, ekonomik gelişmişlik, panel veri.

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