Ekonomik Entegrasyon ve Ekonomik Karmaşıklık İlişkisi: AB27 Ülkeleri Analizi

Year 2024, , 740 - 764, 31.10.2024

Merve Eser , Aykut Şarkgüneşi

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1452830

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, AB27 ülkelerine ait 1996-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri ile ekonomik entegrasyonun uzun dönemli dinamik etkilerin ekonomik karmaşıklık üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund (2008) tarafından geliştirilen Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Uzun dönem panel eşbütünleşme katsayı tahmini için Eberhardt ve Bond (2009), Eberhardt ve Teal (2010) tarafından geliştirilen AMG testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre kurumsal kalite, ölçek ekonomileri ve teknolojik ilerleme etkilerinin ekonomik karmaşıklık üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Panelin geneli için DYY ve verimlilik etkilerinin ekonomik karmaşıklık üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamazken ülke bazlı bulgularda heterojen etkiler tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgulara göre entegrasyonun kurumsal kalite, teknolojik ilerleme ve ölçek ekonomileri yolu ile AB27 ülkelerinin karmaşıklığının artırılmasında yardımcı olabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır. Öte yandan, DYY etkisinin karmaşıklık bağlamında pozitif etkisinden faydalanmak amacıyla DYY kararlarının bölge içinde yer alan ülkeler arasında nispeten daha az gelişmiş ülkelerde yoğunlaştırılması önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Karmaşıklık, Ekonomik Entegrasyon, Panel Eşbütünleşme

The Relationship Between Economic Integration and Economic Complexity: Analysis of EU27 Countries

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of the long-term dynamic impacts of economic integration on economic complexity using the annual data for the period 1996-2018 for the EU27 countries. The cointegration relationship between the series was estimated using the Durbin-Hausman cointegration test developed by Westerlund (2008). The AMG test, developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009) and Eberhardt and Teal (2010), was applied for the estimation of long-term panel cointegration coefficients. According to the findings, institutional quality, economies of scale, and technological progress have a positive and significant impact on economic complexity. While no significant effect of FDI and productivity on economic complexity was found for the overall panel, heterogeneous effects were identified in country-specific results. Based on these findings, it is concluded that integration can help enhance the complexity of the EU27 countries through institutional quality, technological progress, and economies of scale. On the other hand, to benefit from the positive impact of FDI in terms of complexity, it is recommended that FDI decisions be concentrated in relatively less developed countries within the region.

Keywords

Economic Complexity, Economic Integration, Panel Cointegration

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