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VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 5, 37 - 55, 13.02.2018
https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276

Abstract

Bu çalışmada vergi
yükü ile ekonomik büyüme hızı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler
Türkiye’de iller örnekleminde incelenmektir. Bu bağlamda 2005 ile 2014 yılları
arasındaki dönem kısıtında 81 ile ilişkin vergi yükü (tahakkuk-tahsil) ve kişi
başına düşen gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla verileri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan
analizler, illere göre vergi yükü ile illerin ekonomik büyüme hızları arasında
uzun dönemli eşbütünleşik bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Kurgulanan
hata düzeltme modelleri ise illerin yapısal olarak uzun dönemde birbirlerine
yakınsadığını, vergi yükünde meydana gelecek %1’lik artışın ekonomik büyüme
hızını kısa dönemde %0,6 azaltacağını, uzun dönemde ise %0,9 artıracağını ortaya
koymaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular hem kısa hem de uzun dönem
itibariyle vergi yükünün illerin büyüme hızları üzerindeki etkilerini yansıtması
açısından literatüre katkı sağlar niteliktedir.

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THE EFFECTS OF TAX BURDEN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PROVINCES IN TURKEY (2005-2014)

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 5, 37 - 55, 13.02.2018
https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276

Abstract

In this study, the existence
of the short and long-term relationships between tax burden and economic growth
is examined in the sample of provinces in Turkey. In this context, tax burden
(accrual-collection) and gross domestic product per capita data are used for 81
provinces covering the period 2005-2014. According to the analyses, there is a
long-run cointegrated relationship between tax burden and economic growth.
Error correction models show that provinces are structurally convergence to
each other in the long run. It also reveals that while 1 percent increase in
the tax burden will decrease the rate of economic growth by 0.6 percent in the
short term, it increases by 0.9 percent in the long term. Findings obtained in
the study contribute to the literature by examining the effects of tax burden
on growth rate both short and long term.

References

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  • ADKISSON, R.V. ve MOHAMMED, M. (2014). “Tax Structure and State Economic Growth during the Great Recession”, The Social Science Journal, 51, 79–89.
  • AFONSO, A. ve FURCERI, D. (2010). “Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 26, 517–532.
  • AHN, S.C. ve MOON, H.R. (2001). “Large-N and large-T Properties of Panel Data Estimators and The Hausman Test”, USC Center for Law, Economics & Organization, Research Paper No: C01-20.
  • ALESINA A. ve ARDAGNA, S. (2009). “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending”, NBER Working Paper No. 15438.
  • ALESINA A. ve PEROTTI, R. (1997). “Fiscal Adjustment in OECD Countries: Composition and Macro Economic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 44
  • ALESINA A. ve PEROTTI, R. (1995). “The Political Economy of Budget Deficits”, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 42.
  • ARNOLD, J., BRYS, B., HEADY, C., JOHANSSON, A., SCHWELLNUS, C. ve VARTIA, L. (2011). “Tax Policy For Economic Recovery and Growth”, Economic Journal, 121, 59-80.
  • BANIA, N., GRAY, J.A. ve STONE J.A. (2007). "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States", National Tax Journal, 60(2), 193-204.
  • BARRO, R.J. (1991). “Economic Growth in A Cross Section Of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • BARRO, R.J. ve SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1991). “Convergence across States and Regions”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 107-182.
  • BARRO, R.J. ve SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1990). “Economic Growth and Convergence across The United States”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. w3419.
  • BASSANINI, A. ve SCARPETA, S. (2001). “The Driving Forces of Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for the OECD Countries”, OECD Economic Studies, 2, 12-19.
  • BAUMOL, W. (1986). “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”, The American Economic Review, 76(5), 1072-1085.
  • BECKERMAN, W. (2002). “A Poverty of Reason: Sustainable Development and Economic Growth”, The Independent Institute: Oakland, US.
  • BERNARD, A.B. ve DURLAUF, S.N. (1996). “Interpreting Tests of The Convergence Hypothesis”, Journal of Econometrics, 71(1), 161-173.
  • BLOMQUIST, N.S. ve HANSSON-BRUSEWITZ, U. (1990). “The Effect of Taxes on Male and Female Labor Supply in Sweden”, Journal of Human Resources, 317-357.
  • BROWN, S.P., HAYES, K.J. ve TAYLOR, L.L. (2003). “State and Local Policy, Factor Markets, and Regional Growth”, The Review of Regional Studies, 33(1), 40.
  • BULUTOĞLU, K. (1971). Kamu Ekonomisine Giriş, 4. Baskı, Sermet Matbaası, İstanbul.
  • BURGESS, R. ve STERN, N. (1993). “Taxation and Development”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31(2), 762-830.
  • BURTLESS, G. ve HAUSMAN, J.A. (1978). “The Effect of Taxation on Labor Supply: Evaluating the Gary Negative Income Tax Experiment”, Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 1103-1130.
  • CARREE, M. ve KLOMP, L. (1997). “Testing The Convergence Hypothesis: A Comment”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 683-686.
  • CASELLİ, F., ESQUIVEL, G. ve LEFORT, F. (1996). “Reopening The Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 363-389.
  • CHOI, I. (2001). “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249-272.
  • ÇELİK, N. (2017). “Teşvik Politikalarının Etkinliğinin Mekânsal Perspektiften Değerlendirilmesi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(1), 1.
  • DURLAUF, S.N. (1996). “On The Convergence and Divergence of Growth Rates”, The Economic Journal, 106(437), 1016-1018.
  • EDİZDOĞAN, N. ve ÇELİKKAYA, A. (2010). Vergilerin Ekonomik Analizi, 1. Baskı, Dora Yayıncılık, Bursa.
  • ENGEN, E.M. ve SKINNER, J. (1996). “Taxation and Economic Growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, (No. w5826).
  • ENGLE, R.F. ve GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), 251-276.
  • ERK, N., ATEŞ, S. ve DİREKÇİ, T. (2000) “Convergence and Growth within GAP Region (South Eastern Anatolia Project) and overall Turkey’s Regions”, IV. ODTÜ Uluslararası Ekonomi Kongresi,13-16 Eylül, Ankara.
  • EVANS, P. ve KARRAS, G. (1996). “Do Economies Converge? Evidence from A Panel of US States”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 384-388.
  • FAGERBERG, J. (1995). “Convergence or Divergence? The Impact of Technology on “Why Growth Rates Differ”, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 5(3), 269-284.
  • FEDELI, S. ve FORTE, F. (2014). “Deficits, Tax Burden and Unemployment”, F. Forte, R. Mudambi, ve P. Navarra (Eds.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics. UK: Edward Elgar.
  • FEDELI, S. ve FORTE, F. (2016). “The Long Term Effects of Government Budget Constraints on GDP Growth: An Empirical Study on OECD Countries (1980-2009)”, G.D. Bartolomeo, ve E. Saltari (Eds.), Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Policy – Growth, Productivity and Public Finance. NY: Routledge.
  • FEREDE, E. ve DAHLBY, B. (2012). “The Impact of Tax Cuts on Economic Growth: Evidence from the Canadian Provinces”, National Tax Journal, 65, 563-594.
  • FOLSTER, S. ve HENREKSON, M. (2001). “Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries”, European Economic Review, 45, 1501-1520.
  • GREASLEY, D. ve OXLEY, L. (1997). “Time-series Based Tests of The Convergence Hypothesis: Some Positive Results”, Economics Letters, 56(2), 143-147.
  • HAUSMAN, J.A. (1985). “Taxes and Labor Supply”, Handbook of Public Economics, 1, 213-263.
  • HALAÇ, U. ve KUŞTEPELİ, Y. (2008) “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Gelirin Yakınsaması: Gelir Dağılımı Açısından Bir Değerlendirme”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Discussion Paper Series, 8(1), 1 14.
  • HELMS, L.J. (1985). “The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 574-582.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Papers
Authors

Ferdi Çelikay 0000-0002-1922-4034

Publication Date February 13, 2018
Submission Date July 18, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 3 Issue: 5

Cite

APA Çelikay, F. (2018). VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014). İktisadi İdari Ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(5), 37-55. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276
AMA Çelikay F. VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014). JEBUPOR. February 2018;3(5):37-55. doi:10.25204/iktisad.329276
Chicago Çelikay, Ferdi. “VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)”. İktisadi İdari Ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 3, no. 5 (February 2018): 37-55. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276.
EndNote Çelikay F (February 1, 2018) VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014). İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 3 5 37–55.
IEEE F. Çelikay, “VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)”, JEBUPOR, vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 37–55, 2018, doi: 10.25204/iktisad.329276.
ISNAD Çelikay, Ferdi. “VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)”. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 3/5 (February 2018), 37-55. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276.
JAMA Çelikay F. VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014). JEBUPOR. 2018;3:37–55.
MLA Çelikay, Ferdi. “VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)”. İktisadi İdari Ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 3, no. 5, 2018, pp. 37-55, doi:10.25204/iktisad.329276.
Vancouver Çelikay F. VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014). JEBUPOR. 2018;3(5):37-55.