VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 5, 37 - 55, 13.02.2018

Ferdi Çelikay

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Bu çalışmada vergi
yükü ile ekonomik büyüme hızı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler
Türkiye’de iller örnekleminde incelenmektir. Bu bağlamda 2005 ile 2014 yılları
arasındaki dönem kısıtında 81 ile ilişkin vergi yükü (tahakkuk-tahsil) ve kişi
başına düşen gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla verileri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan
analizler, illere göre vergi yükü ile illerin ekonomik büyüme hızları arasında
uzun dönemli eşbütünleşik bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Kurgulanan
hata düzeltme modelleri ise illerin yapısal olarak uzun dönemde birbirlerine
yakınsadığını, vergi yükünde meydana gelecek %1’lik artışın ekonomik büyüme
hızını kısa dönemde %0,6 azaltacağını, uzun dönemde ise %0,9 artıracağını ortaya
koymaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular hem kısa hem de uzun dönem
itibariyle vergi yükünün illerin büyüme hızları üzerindeki etkilerini yansıtması
açısından literatüre katkı sağlar niteliktedir.

Keywords

Vergi Politikası, Vergi Yükü, İktisadi Büyüme Hızı, Bölgesel Kalkınma, Gelir ve İkame Etkileri

THE EFFECTS OF TAX BURDEN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PROVINCES IN TURKEY (2005-2014)

Abstract

In this study, the existence
of the short and long-term relationships between tax burden and economic growth
is examined in the sample of provinces in Turkey. In this context, tax burden
(accrual-collection) and gross domestic product per capita data are used for 81
provinces covering the period 2005-2014. According to the analyses, there is a
long-run cointegrated relationship between tax burden and economic growth.
Error correction models show that provinces are structurally convergence to
each other in the long run. It also reveals that while 1 percent increase in
the tax burden will decrease the rate of economic growth by 0.6 percent in the
short term, it increases by 0.9 percent in the long term. Findings obtained in
the study contribute to the literature by examining the effects of tax burden
on growth rate both short and long term.

Keywords

Tax Policy, Tax Burden, Economic Growth, Regional Development, Income and Substitution Effects

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