Monetary and Macroeconomic Determinants of Tax Revenue: The Case of Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 8 Issue: "Cumhuriyet'in 100. Yılında Türkiye'nin Sosyo-Ekonomisi" Özel Sayısı, 202 - 216, 29.10.2023

Seher Gökpınar

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1302035

Cited By: 2

Abstract

In this study, the effects of selected monetary and macroeconomic variables on tax revenues are investigated. For this purpose, the effects of the USD/TRY exchange rate, broad money (M2), industrial production index, deposit interest rate, unemployment rate and exports on the tax revenues are analyzed with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly observations for the period between 2006:1-2022:11 in Türkiye. The empirical findings reveal that there is a cointegration relationship between tax revenues and all series. According to the long-run coefficient estimates, the broad money (M2), industrial production index, deposit interest rate and export series affect the tax level positively, while the unemployment rate and USD/TRY exchange rate affect the tax level negatively. Furthermore, the results show that the broad money (M2) has the greatest effect in tax revenues. In this context, it is recommended that the tax authorities seeking to increase tax revenues should pay more attention to the effect of broad money (M2), as well as other indicators, on tax revenues when determining the tax policy targets.

Keywords

Tax Revenues, Determinants of Tax Revenues, ARDL, Türkiye

Vergi Gelirinin Parasal ve Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada seçilen parasal ve makroekonomik değişkenlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de 2006:1-2022:11 dönemi için aylık gözlemler dâhilinde geniş para (M2), USD/TRY kuru, sanayi üretim endeksi, mevduat faiz oranı, işsizlik oranı ve ihracatın vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model (ARDL) ile analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, vergi gelirleri ile tüm seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Uzun dönem katsayı tahminlerine göre geniş para (M2), sanayi üretim endeksi, mevduat faiz oranı ve ihracat serileri vergi düzeyini pozitif yönde etkilerken, işsizlik oranı ve USD/TRY kuru vergi düzeyini negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, sonuçlar geniş paranın (M2) vergi gelirleri üzerinde en fazla etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu bağlamda, vergi gelirlerini artırmak isteyen vergi otoritelerinin vergi politikası hedeflerini belirlerken diğer göstergelerin yanı sıra geniş paranın (M2) vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisini daha fazla dikkate almaları önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Vergi Gelirleri, Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri, ARDL, Türkiye

References

• Addison, T. and Levin, J. (2012). The Determinants of tax revenue in Sub Saharan Africa. Nationell Konferens i Nationalekonomi, 1-19. http://oru.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:570456/ FULLTEXT01.pdf
• Agbeyegbe, T. D., Stotsky, J. and WoldeMariam, A. (2006). Trade liberalization, exchange rate changes, and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Asian Economics, 17(2), 261-284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2005.09.003
• Ali, A. and Audi, M. (2018). Macroeconomic environment and taxes revenues in Pakistan: an application of ARDL approach. Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 7(1), 30-39. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88916/
• Alper, C. E. and Arubo, S. B. (2001). Makroekonomik verilerin mevsimsellikten arındırılması: Türkiye’deki uygulamalı araştırmacılara dikkat notu. http://econweb. umd.edu/~webspace/aruoba/research/paper1/Alper_Aruoba_2001_Turkish. pdf.
• Ayenew, W. (2016). Determinants of tax revenue in Ethiopia (Johansen co-integration approach). International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, 3(6), 69–84, https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.62/2016.3.6/62.6.69.84.
• Bird, R. M. (2008). Tax challenges facing developing countries, University of Toronto, Institute for International Business Working Paper Series, IIB Paper No. 12. Bird, Richard Miller, Tax Challenges Facing Developing Countries (March 2008). Institute for International Business Working Paper No. 9, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1114084 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1114084
• Bird, R. M., Martinez-Vazquez, J. and Torgler, B. (2008). Tax effort in developing countries and high income countries: The impact of corruption, voice and accountability. Economic analysis and policy, 38(1), 55-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(08)50006-3
• Bird, R. M., Martinez-Vazquez, J. and Torgler, B. (2014). Societal institutions and tax effort in developing countries. Annals of Economics and Finance, 15(1), 185-230.
• Boukbech, R., Bousselhamia, A. and Ezzahid, E. (2018). Determinants of tax revenues: Evidence from a sample of lower middle income countries. Applied Economics and Finance, 6, 11-20. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/90268
• Çağlayan, E. and Saçaklı, İ. (2006). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliğinin sıfır frekansta spektrum tahmincisine dayanan birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 121-137.
• Çalcalı, Ö. and Altıner, A. (2019). Makro ekonomik açıdan vergi gelirlerinin belirleyicileri: OECD ülkeleri üzerine bir uygulama. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (112), 175-198.
• Castañeda Rodríguez, V. M. (2018). Tax determinants revisited. An unbalanced data panel analysis, Journal of Applied Economics, 21(1), 1-24, https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2018.1526867
• Castro, G. Á. and Camarillo, D. B. R. (2014). Determinants of tax revenue in OECD countries over the period 2001–2011. Contaduría y administración, 59(3), 35-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0186-1042(14)71265-3
• Chaudhry, I. S. and Munir, F. (2010). Determinants of low tax revenue in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 30(2), 439-452.
• Chelliah, R. J. (1971). Trends in taxation in developing countries. Staff Papers, 18(2), 254–331. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866272.
• Chelliah, R. J., Baas, H. J. and Kelly, M. R. (1975). Tax ratios and tax effort in developing countries, 1969–71. Staff Papers, 22(1), 187–205, https://doi.org/10.2307/3866592.
• Çuhadar, M. (2013). Türkiye’ye yönelik dış turizm talebinin MLP, RBF ve TDNN yapay sinir ağı mimarileri ile modellenmesi ve tahmini: karşılaştırmali bir analiz. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 8(31), 5274-5295.
• Demirbaş, M., Türkay, H. and Türkoğlu, M. (2009). Petrol fiyatlarındaki gelişmelerin Türkiye’nin cari açığı üzerine etkisinin analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 289-299.
• Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
• Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
• Dioda, L. (2012). Structural determinants of tax revenue in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1990-2009.United Nations, 1-44.
• Erdoğdu, H., Demir, M. and Önder, R. (2021). COVID-19 salgınının Türkiye’nin vergi gelirleri üzerine etkisi. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 18(43), 6478-6506.
• Ghura, D. (1998). Tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects of economic policies and corruption. IMF Working Papers No. 1998/135.
• Gupta, A. S. (2007). Determinants of tax revenue efforts in developing countries. International Monetary Fund Working Paper Series Number07/184, 1-39. Sen Gupta, Abhijit, Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developing Countries (July 2007). IMF Working Paper No. 07/184. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1007933
• Hassan, S. U. and Mishra, B. (2017). Does infrastructure matters in government spending? A case study of Jammu and Kashmir (India) with cointegration approach. Journal of Infrastructure Development, 9(2), 82-97. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974930617732241.
• Kaldor, N. (1963). Will underdeveloped countries learn to tax?. Foreign Affairs, 41 (2) 410-419.
• Karabulut, R. and Şeker, K. (2018). Belirlenmiş değişkenlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi: Çoklu doğrusal regresyon analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(3), 1049-1070.
• Karagöz, K. (2013). Determinants of tax revenue: Does sectorial composition matter?. Journal of Finance, Accounting & Management, 4(2), 50-63.
• Kutbay, H. (2019). Vergi gelirlerini etkileyen faktörler: Seçilmiş ülkeler için panel veri analizi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(3), 602-617.
• Lotz, J. R. and Morss, E. R. (1967). Measuring “tax effort” in developing countries. Staff Papers, 14(3), 478-499. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866266
• Lotz, J. R. and Morss, E. R. (1970). A theory of tax level determinants for developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 18(3), 328-341. https://doi.org/10.1086/450436
• Muibi, O. S. and Sinbo, O. M. (2013). Macroeconomic determinants of tax revenue in Nigeria (1970-2011). World Applied Sciences Journal, 28(1), 27-35. 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.28.01.1189
• Narayan, P. K. (2004), Reformulating critical values for the bounds f-statistics approach to cointegration: An application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Discussion Papers. https://doi.org/10.4225/03/5938abda7b4ab
• Nguyen-Phuong, L., Phuong, N. N. T. and Thu, H. D. T. (2022). Determinants of tax revenue: A comparison between ASEAN-7 plus China and 8 European countries. International Journal of Business and Society, 23(1), 244–259. https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.4611.2022.
• Özhan, M. and Keyifli, N. (2020). Vergi gelirleri, kentleşme ve demokrasi: G20 ülkeleri üzerine ekonometrik bir çalışma. EKEV Akademi Dergisi, (84), 391-408.
• Özmen, İ. (2016). Vergi gelirlerinin belirleyicileri üzerine karşilaştirmali bir analiz: BRIC-T. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16(32), 232-252.
• Öztürk, Ö. F., Şaşmaz, M. Ü., Bayar, Y. and Odabaş, H. (2019). Türkiye’de başlıca ekonomik değişkenlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi: Çoklu doğrusal regresyon analizi. Sayıştay Dergisi, (115), 37-53.
• Öz-Yalaman, G. (2019). Financial inclusion and tax revenue. Central Bank Review, 19(3), 107-113.
• Peacock, M. S. (2003). State, money, catallaxy: Underlaboring for a chartalist theory of money. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 26(2), 205-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.08.004
• Perron, P. (1990). Testing for a unit root in a time series with a changing mean. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 153-162. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1990.10509786
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
• Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biomètrika, 75(2), 336-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
• Piancastelli, M. and Thirlwall, A. P. (2020). The determinants of tax revenue and tax effort in developed and developing countries: Theory and new evidence 1996-2015. Nova Economia, 30, 871-892. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6351/5788
• Sağdıç, E. N. (2019). Vergi gelirlerini belirleyen faktörlerin bölgesel analizi: Türkiye örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (60), 155-178.
• Stotsky, J. G. and WoldeMariam, A. (1997). Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/107.
• Tait, A. A., Grätz, W. L. and Eichengreen, B. J. (1979). International comparisons of taxation for selected developing countries, 1972-76, Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, 26(1), 123-156. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866567
• Tanzi, V. (1989). The impact of macroeconomic policies on the level of taxation and the fiscal balance in developing countries. Staff Papers, 36(3), 633-656. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867050
• Torrance, S. and Morrissey, O. (2014). Taxation and indigenous institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, Credit Research Paper No.14/04, 1-27.
• Yıldız, B. (2019). Vergi gelirlerinin ekonomik belirleyicileri üzerine ampirik bir analiz: Yüksek gelirli OECD ülkeleri örneği. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 17(3), 324-339. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.594965
• Yılmaz, R. and Çelikay, F. (2017). Para ve vergiler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine bir inceleme. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 121-133. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.306108
• Yüksel, H., Orhan, M. and Öztunç, H. (2013). Tax revenue and main macroeconomic indicators in Turkey. European Journal of Economic and Political Studies, 6(1), 135-150.