Has the Great Recession and the Pandemic been one of the Triggers for the rise in Unemployment? A Comparative analysis: Türkiye & EU27

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 211 - 229, 30.12.2022

María Jesús Arroyo Fernández Pedro Fernández Sánchez , María-carmen García-centeno Inmaculada Hurtado Ocaña

https://doi.org/10.55065/intraders.1202498

Abstract

In 1999 the European Council celebrated in Helsinki, on a proposal by the Commission, made Türkiye a candidate country for EU membership. In order to make further progress in the process, a number of reforms, both political and economic, had to be implemented. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to study the evolution of one of the main macroeconomic indicators: unemployment. Secondly, through the estimation of dynamic econometric models, to analyse the possible differences in the evolution of unemployment in Türkiye and in the EU27, depending on variables such as per capita income, population, inflation, investment or public debt. And also, what has been the Keywords: Unemployment rate; Great Recession, Covid-19; macroeconomic variables; labour market policies.

Keywords

Unemployment rate, great Recession, Covid-19, macroeconomic variables, labour market policies

References

• Aktar, I. & Ozturk, L. (2009). Can Unemployment be Cured by Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey? International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 27, 203-211.
• Atlas Economic Complexity (October 2022). Retrieved from https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries.
• Berument, M.H., Dogan, N. & Tansel, A. (2009). Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 45(3), 21-34, DOI: 10.2753/REE1540-496X450302.
• Bildirici, M., Ersin, Ö. Ö., Türkmen, C. & Yalçınkaya, Y. (2012). The Persistence Effect of Unemployment in Turkey: An Analysis of the 1980-2010 period. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 1(3), 22-32. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/jbef/issue/32419/360515.
• Doğan T. T. (2012). Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(1), 71-78.
• Doornik, J. A., & Hendry, D. F. (2013). Empirical econometric modelling using PcGive (7th ed., Vol. I). London: Timberlake Consultants Press.
• European Council (June 1993). Retrieved from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/21225/72921.pdf.
• EUROSTAT (2022). Database. Retrieved from Database - Eurostat (europa.eu).
• Loungani, P. (June 2011). El rostro humano de las ciencias económicas. Prakash Loungani traza una semblanza de George Akerlof. Finanzas & Desarrollo. 48(2), 2-5. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2011/06/pdf/people.pdf.
• OECD (2017). Employment and Skills Strategies in Turkey, OECD Reviews on Local Job Creation. OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264279506-en.
• OECD (2020). Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2020: Rebuilding Better. OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b02b2f39-en.
• OECD (2021a). Economic Policy Reforms 2021: Going for Growth: Shaping a Vibrant Recovery. OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/3c796721-en.
• OECD (2021b). OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2021. OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/2cd09ab1-en.
• TurkStat (2022). Database [Database file]. Retrieved from https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/Index.
• UNDP (2022). Human Development Report 2021/2022. Uncertain Times, unsettled lives: shaping our future in a Transforming World. Retrieved from https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2021-22pdf_1.pdf .
• World Bank (November 2022). Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/overview.
• Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Fifth edition. South-Western. USA.