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The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye

Year 2022, , 157 - 173, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608

Abstract

In this study the effect of the loans extended by banks on the growth of the sector on a sectoral basis in the quarter of 2004Q1 and 2021Q2 in Turkiye has been examined. The variables used as data in the study are real loans extended by banks to the construction, food, metal, personal loans, textile, transportation and wholesale retail sectors. The VAR method, the Johansen cointegration test and the Engle-Granger causality test were used as methods while performing the analysis. While analyzing whether the loans extended by banks to various sectors have a long-term relationship with growth with the Johansen cointegration test, the direction of these relations was determined with the Engle-Granger Causality test. Finally, the effect of shocks in sectoral loans on economic growth was evaluated by using impulse-response functions. The variables used were obtained from the CBRT (Banks Association of Turkiye Risk Center). According to the Johansen cointegration test results, it was determined that there is cointegration between the data in the long term. According to the Engle-Granger test results, at the 10% significance level, there is a one-way causality relationship from GDP to transportation, personal loans and construction in the long run and there is a unidirectional causality relationship in the long run from the metal sector to GDP.

References

  • Apaydın, Ş. (2018). Türkiye’de banka kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(4), 15-28. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.446129 google scholar
  • Beck, T. & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks and growth: panel evidence. Journal of Banking&Finance, 28, 423-442. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9 google scholar
  • Cameron, R. E. (1967). Banking in the early stages of industrialization: A study in comparative economic history. Oxford University Press, New York. google scholar
  • Cernohorsky, J. (2017). Types of bank loans and their impact on economic development: A case study of the Czech Republic. E&M Ekonomie a Management, 20(4), 34-48. google scholar
  • Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimates for the autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. google scholar
  • Iyare, P., Lorde, T. & Francis, B. (2005). Financial development and economic growth in developing economies: Empirical evidence from the Caribbean. Ekonomia, 8(2), 1-17. google scholar
  • Karahan, Ö., Yılgör, M. & Özekin, A.A. (2018). Türkiye’de banka kredilerindeki genişleme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 636, 25-36. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/47987/607071 google scholar
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  • Lue, C.H. & Shen, C.H. (2012). Banking lendings and economic growth of Chinese cities. China & World and Economy, 20(2), 59-79. google scholar
  • Mercan, M. (2013). Kredi hacmindeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi için sınır testi yaklaşımı. Bankacılar, 24(84), 54-71. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ bankacilar/issue/3383/46668 google scholar
  • Oluitan, R. O. (2012). Bank credit and economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria. International Business and Management, 5(2), 102-110. google scholar
  • Vurur, N. S. & Özen, E. (2013). Türkiye’de mevduat banka kredisi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin incelenmesi. Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(3), 117-131. Retrieved from https:// dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/usaksosbil/issue/21641/232614 google scholar
  • Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189. google scholar
  • Pehlivan, P. (2018). Türkiye’de ticari banka mevduatı ve kredilerinin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi. Social Science Development Journal, 3(12), 371-381. google scholar
  • Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 74, 535-547. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182 google scholar
  • Risk Center of the Banks Association of Turkey (2021). Distribution of loans (indicator). Retrieved from https://verisistemi.tbb.org.tr/index.php?/tbb/report_rm google scholar
  • Risk Center of the Banks Association of Turkey (2021). Ratio of total cash loans to gdp (indicator). Retrieved from https://verisistemi.tbb.org.tr/index.php?/tbb/report_rm google scholar
  • Risk Center of the Banks Association of Turkey (2021). Sectoral distribution in total loans (indicator). Retrieved from https://verisistemi.tbb.org.tr/index.php?/tbb/report_rm google scholar
  • Schumpeter, A.J. (1939). Business cycles: A theoretical historical and statistical analysis. McGraw Hill Book Company, New York. google scholar

Türkiye‘de Sektörel Banka Kredilerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi

Year 2022, , 157 - 173, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608

Abstract

Çalışmada Türkiye’de 2004Q1 ve 2021Q2 çeyreklik dönemde bankalar tarafından kullandırılan kredilerin sektörel bazda büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. İncelemede veri olarak kullanılan değişkenler inşaat, gıda, metal, bireysel krediler, tekstil, ulaşım ve toptan perakende sektörüne bankalar tarafından kullandırılan reel krediler kullanılmıştır. Analiz yapılırken yöntem olarak VAR yöntemi, Johansen Eş Bütünleşme testi ve Engle-Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Johansen Eş Bütünleşme testi ile bankalar tarafından çeşitli sektörlere kullandırılan kredilerin büyüme ile uzun dönemli bir ilişkisi olup olmadığı analiz edilirken, Engle- Granger Nedensellik testi ile bu ilişkilerin yönü tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak etki-tepki fonksiyonları kullanılarak sektörel kredilerde meydana gelen şokların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi değerlendirilmiştir. Kullanılan değişkenler TCMB, Türkiye Bankalar Birliği Risk Merkezinden temin edilmiştir. Johansen eş bütünleşme test sonuçlarına göre veriler arası uzun dönemde eş bütünleşmenin olduğu saptanmıştır. Engle-Granger test sonuçlarına göre ise ekonomik büyüme ve seçilen sektörler arasında çift yönlü nedensel ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Özetle İnşaat, gıda, metal, bireysel krediler, tekstil, ulaşım ve toptan perakende sektörünün kullandıkları krediler ekonomik büyümeyi uzun dönemde etkilemektedir.

References

  • Apaydın, Ş. (2018). Türkiye’de banka kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(4), 15-28. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.446129 google scholar
  • Beck, T. & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks and growth: panel evidence. Journal of Banking&Finance, 28, 423-442. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9 google scholar
  • Cameron, R. E. (1967). Banking in the early stages of industrialization: A study in comparative economic history. Oxford University Press, New York. google scholar
  • Cernohorsky, J. (2017). Types of bank loans and their impact on economic development: A case study of the Czech Republic. E&M Ekonomie a Management, 20(4), 34-48. google scholar
  • Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimates for the autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. google scholar
  • Iyare, P., Lorde, T. & Francis, B. (2005). Financial development and economic growth in developing economies: Empirical evidence from the Caribbean. Ekonomia, 8(2), 1-17. google scholar
  • Karahan, Ö., Yılgör, M. & Özekin, A.A. (2018). Türkiye’de banka kredilerindeki genişleme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 636, 25-36. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/47987/607071 google scholar
  • Kılıç, M. (2018). Kredi hacminin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir analiz. Social Sciences Studies Journal (SSSJournal), 15, 1036-1043. Doi: 10.26449/sssj.491. google scholar
  • Lue, C.H. & Shen, C.H. (2012). Banking lendings and economic growth of Chinese cities. China & World and Economy, 20(2), 59-79. google scholar
  • Mercan, M. (2013). Kredi hacmindeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi için sınır testi yaklaşımı. Bankacılar, 24(84), 54-71. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ bankacilar/issue/3383/46668 google scholar
  • Oluitan, R. O. (2012). Bank credit and economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria. International Business and Management, 5(2), 102-110. google scholar
  • Vurur, N. S. & Özen, E. (2013). Türkiye’de mevduat banka kredisi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin incelenmesi. Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(3), 117-131. Retrieved from https:// dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/usaksosbil/issue/21641/232614 google scholar
  • Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189. google scholar
  • Pehlivan, P. (2018). Türkiye’de ticari banka mevduatı ve kredilerinin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi. Social Science Development Journal, 3(12), 371-381. google scholar
  • Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 74, 535-547. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182 google scholar
  • Risk Center of the Banks Association of Turkey (2021). Distribution of loans (indicator). Retrieved from https://verisistemi.tbb.org.tr/index.php?/tbb/report_rm google scholar
  • Risk Center of the Banks Association of Turkey (2021). Ratio of total cash loans to gdp (indicator). Retrieved from https://verisistemi.tbb.org.tr/index.php?/tbb/report_rm google scholar
  • Risk Center of the Banks Association of Turkey (2021). Sectoral distribution in total loans (indicator). Retrieved from https://verisistemi.tbb.org.tr/index.php?/tbb/report_rm google scholar
  • Schumpeter, A.J. (1939). Business cycles: A theoretical historical and statistical analysis. McGraw Hill Book Company, New York. google scholar
There are 19 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Tacinur Akça 0000-0002-4071-9525

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Submission Date November 10, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Akça, T. (2022). The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(1), 157-173. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608
AMA Akça T. The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. June 2022;72(1):157-173. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608
Chicago Akça, Tacinur. “The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72, no. 1 (June 2022): 157-73. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608.
EndNote Akça T (June 1, 2022) The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72 1 157–173.
IEEE T. Akça, “The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol. 72, no. 1, pp. 157–173, 2022, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608.
ISNAD Akça, Tacinur. “The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72/1 (June 2022), 157-173. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608.
JAMA Akça T. The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2022;72:157–173.
MLA Akça, Tacinur. “The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol. 72, no. 1, 2022, pp. 157-73, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1021608.
Vancouver Akça T. The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2022;72(1):157-73.