Plastik Kart Harcamaları Hanehalkı Özel Tüketim Harcamaları Üzerinde Etkili mi? ARDL Yönteminden Ampirik Kanıtlar

Year 2022, , 847 - 875, 18.01.2023

Serkan Göksu

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1106208

Abstract

Reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılanın yarısından daha fazlasını oluşturan özel tüketim harcamalarının makro ekonomi için olan önemi yadsınamaz. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı plastik kart harcamaları, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve enflasyonun özel tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisini Türkiye örneklemi üzerinden araştırmaktır. 2014-2021 dönemine ilişkin çeyreklik veriler kullanarak uygulanan doğrusal ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) yönteminden elde edilen sonuçlara göre: i) uzun dönemde özel tüketim harcamaları, plastik kart harcamaları, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve enflasyon değişkenleri arasında eş bütünleşik olduğu yani doğrusal birleşimlerinin denge noktasına yakınsandığı ii) uzun dönemde plastik kart harcamalarının ve gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılanın özel tüketim harcamalarını arttırdığı; enflasyonun ise özel tüketim harcamalarını azalttığı iii) kısa dönemde elde edilen katsayıların yönü itibariyle uzun dönemdekilerle paralel olduğu ancak özel tüketimi baskılamada enflasyonun kısa dönemde, uzun dönemdekinden daha büyük bir etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre: iv) özel tüketim harcaması ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve plastik kart harcamaları arasında; gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ile plastik kart harcamaları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi v) plastik kart harcamalarından enflasyona, enflasyondan da özel tüketim harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Hanehalklarının refah düzeylerini arttırmada politika yapıcılara enflasyonda kalıcı bir azalışı önceleyen bir bakış açısının gerektiği ve plastik kartlarda objektif limitlendirmeler yapılması önerilebilir.

Keywords

Plastik Kart, Kredi Kartı, ARDL

Supporting Institution

yoktur.

Project Number

yoktur.

Thanks

yoktur.

Does Plastic Card Spending Have an Impact on Household Private Consumption Expenditures? Empirical Evidence Based on the ARDL Method

Abstract

Private consumption expenditures, which constitute more than half of the real gross domestic product, are significant for the macroeconomy. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of plastic card expenditures, gross domestic product, and inflation on private consumption expenditures through the case of Turkey. According to the results obtained from the linear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method applied using quarterly data for the period 2014-2021: i) long-term private consumption expenditures, plastic card expenditures, gross domestic product, and inflation variables are cointegrated such that their linear combinations converge to an equilibrium point; ii) plastic card expenditures in the long run and gross domestic product increased private consumption expenditures; and iii) the obtained short-term coefficients parallel those of the long-term, with inflation being more effective at suppressing private consumption in the short run than in the long run. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results: iv) bidirectional causality relationships exist between private consumption expenditure and gross domestic product, between private consumption expenditure and plastic card expenditure, and between gross domestic product and plastic card expenditures; and v) one-way causality relationships exist going from plastic card expenditures to inflation and from inflation to private consumption expenditures. Policymakers recommended that a perspective that prioritizes the fight against inflation is required to increase household welfare and that objective limitations should be placed on plastic cards.

Keywords

Plastic Card, Credit Card, ARDL

Project Number

yoktur.

References

• Adedeji, A. O., & Adegboye, A. A. (2013). The determinants of private consumption spending in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Economic Research, 1(2), 103-116. google scholar
• Akçay, S. (2022). Remittances and income inequality in the Philippines. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 36(1), 30-47. google scholar
• Akçay, S., & Demirhan, E. (2005). The causal relationship between openness and economic growth: Evidence from selected MENA countries. Yapi Kredi Economic Review, 16(2), 77-83. google scholar
• Akekere, J., & Yousuo, P.O. J. (2012). Empirical analysis of change in income on private consumption expenditure in Nigeria from 1981 to 2010. International Journal ofAcademic Research in Business and Social Sciences, (2), 188-197. google scholar
• Alp, E. & Seven, Ü. (2019). The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002 google scholar
• Altan, M. & Göktürk, İ. E. (2007). Türkiye’de kredi kartlarının toplam özel nihai tüketim harcamalarına etkisi: bir çoklu regresyon analizi . Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (18), 25-47. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/susbed/issue/61794/924148 google scholar
• Ayla, D. & Kızıltan, A. (2018). Türkiye’de enflasyon, tüketim ve tasarruf ilişkisinin ekonometrik analizi . Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(7), 13-41. https://dergipark.org.tr/ en/pub/rteusbe/issue/34053/421398 google scholar
• Bonsu, C. O., & Muzindutsi, P. F. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of household consumption expenditure in Ghana: A multivariate cointegration approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 737-745. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/3846 google scholar
• Casadio, P., & Paradiso, A. (2010). Inflation and consumption in a long term perspective with level shift. MPRA Paper, 25980. google scholar
• Demyanyk, Y., Hryshko, D., Luengo-Prado, M. J., & Sorensen, B. E. (2018). The rise and fall of consumption in the 2000s: A tangled tale. Economica, 1-37. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12272 google scholar
• Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1 080/01621459.1979.10482531 google scholar
• Duesenberry, J. (1949). Income, Saving and the theory of consumer behavior. cambridge: Harvard University Press. google scholar
• Ekici, T., & Dunn, L. (2010). Credit card debt and consumption: evidence from household-level data. Applied Economics, 42(4), 455-462. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964526 google scholar
• Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society 251-276. https://doi. org/10.2307/1913236 google scholar
• Erdoğan, S. ,Erdaş, H. & Erdoğan, A. (2017). Türkiye’de hanehalkı tüketim harcamalarının belirleyicileri . Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 309-326. https:// dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/trakyaiibf/issue/30831/304563 google scholar
• Feinberg, R. A. (1986). Credit cards as spending facilitating stimuli: A conditioning interpretation. Journal of Consumer Research, 13(3), 348-356. https://doi.org/10.1086/209074 google scholar
• Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton University Press. google scholar
• Gali, J., Lopez-Salido, D. J., & Valles, J. (2007). Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption. Journal of the European Economic Association, (5), 227-270. https://doi. org/10.1162/JEEA.2007.5.1.227 google scholar
• Gross, D. B., & Souleles, N. S. (2002). Do liquidity constraints and interest rates matter for consumer behavior? Evidence from credit card data. The Quarterly journal of economics, 117(1), 149-185. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302753399472 google scholar
• Holden, K., & Thompson, J. (1992). Cointegration:an introductory survey. British Review of Economic Issues. 14 (33). google scholar
• Incekara-Hafalir, E., & Loewenstein, G. (2009). The impact of credit cards on spending: a field experiment. Available at SSRN 1378502. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1378502 google scholar
• Johansen, S. & Juselius K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration— with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 52(2), 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x google scholar
• Keho, Y. (2019). An econometric analysis of the determinants of private consumption in Cote d’Ivoire. Theoretical Economics Letters, 9(4), 947-958. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.[phone] google scholar
• Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: MacMillan. google scholar
• Khan, K., Chen, F. E. I., Kamal, M. A., & Shaikh, S. A. (2015). Determinants of consumption function. case of China and G7 countries. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 3(4), 202-210. google scholar
• Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data, Post-Keynesian Economics, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press google scholar
• Muzindutsi, P. F., & Mjeso, T. (2018). Analysis of South African household consumption expenditure and its determinants: Application of the ARDL Model. EuroEconomica, 37(3). google scholar
• Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2005). Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests. Energy policy, 33(9), 1109-1116. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.11.010 google scholar
• Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2006). What determines migration flows from low-income to high-income countries? An empirical investigation of Fiji-Us migration 1972-2001. Contemporary economic policy, 24(2), 332-342. https://doi.org/10.1093/cep/byj019 google scholar
• Narayan, P.K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests, Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103 google scholar
• Obinna, O. (2020). Effect of inflation on household final consumption expenditure in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 8(1), 104-111. https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.v8n1a8 google scholar
• Okşak, Y. & Özen, E. (2020). Tasarruf ve enflasyon ilişkisi Türkiye için bir eş-bütünleşme analizi . Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(3), 353-369. https://doi.org/10.18026/ cbayarsos.730305 google scholar
• Özkul, F. U. & Tapşın, G. (2010). Kredi kartı kullanımı ile kullanılabilir gelirin tüketim üzerindeki etkisi ve Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine bir ampirik çalışma . Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (47), 138153. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/mufad/issue/35626/395981 google scholar
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 google scholar
• Phillips P.C.B. & Hansen B.E. (1990) Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies. 57(1):99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545 google scholar
• Phillips, P.C.B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335 google scholar
• Pigou, A. C. (1943). The classical stationary state. Economic Journal, 53(212), 343-351. https://doi. org/10.2307/2226394 google scholar
• Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559. https://doi.org/10.2307/2224098 google scholar
• Sacit, S. & Yıldırım, K. (2021). Özel tüketim harcamalarının belirleyicileri: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine bir uygulama. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 391-416. https://doi. org/10.18037/ausbd.959238 google scholar
• Sekantsi, L. P. (2016). Determinants of real private consumption expenditure in Lesotho. European Journal of Economics and Management, 3(2), 72-89. google scholar
• Shahbaz, M., Hye, Q.M.A., Tiwari, A.K., & Leitâo, N.C. (2013). Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, (25), 109-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.04.009 google scholar
• Bakri, S. M., Rambeli, N., Hashim, E., Mahdinezhad, M., & Jalil, N. A. (2017). Understanding behavior of consumption expenditure of households. International Business Education Journal, (10), 43-52. https://doi.org/10.37134/ibej.vol10.5.2017 google scholar
• Şahin, S. & Tantan, H. G. (2020). Türkiye’nin 1987-2019 dönemindeki gelir, enflasyon ve faiz oranlarının tüketim üzerine etkisine yönelik analiz . Igdir University Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, (5), 41-58. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/igdiriibf/ issue/65773/1027632 google scholar
• Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8 google scholar
• Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2022). Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi Erişim Tarihi:17.02.2022, Erişim adresi: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket google scholar
• Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2021). Haber Bülteni. Yayınlanma Tarihi. 01.09.2021 Erişim adresi: https:// data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Yillik-Gayrisafi-Yurt-Ici-Hasila-2020-37184# google scholar
• Yamak, R. , Yamak, N. & Erkan, E. (2019). Tüketim fonksiyonu ve tüketici güven endeksi . Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(19), 533-558. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/ pub/kauiibf/issue/45479/537798 google scholar
• Yıldırım, M. & Demir, H. U. (2021). Kredi kartı harcamalarını etkileyen makroekonomik faktörler ve COVID-19 pandemi dönemi üzerine bir inceleme . Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 159-180. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.830559 google scholar