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Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye

Year 2022, , 507 - 541, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155

Abstract

The aim of this article is to examine effects of wealth, personal income distribution, and households’ and firms’ debt stock on aggregate demand and its components in Türkiye and characterize its demand regime. For this purpose, we examined the Turkish economy over the 1988-2019 period within a post-Keynesian framework. Our findings suggested that the proxy variable for wealth has a small but positive effect on consumption, but no effect on investment. We observed that of four personal income distribution indicators employed in econometric investigations, only one of them had some minor effect on consumption but none of them had any significant effect on investment. Household debt, probably due to mortgages, turned out to have a positive effect on total investment expenditures, which also consists of newly constructed residences, but no effect on consumption expenditures. Our econometric estimations also pointed out that business debt has a negative effect on investment. The synthesis of findings suggested that the demand regime is profit-led in Türkiye. However, calculation of growth contributions of variables indicate that functional income distribution has a minor role, but wealth and debt variables have a major role in determination of aggregate demand.

Thanks

I would like to thank A. A. Elbakyan for her invaluable contributions.

References

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Borç, Servet, Gelir Dağılımı ve Talep: Türkiye Üzerine Post-Keynesyen Ampirik Bir Çalışma

Year 2022, , 507 - 541, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155

Abstract

Bu makalenin amacı Türkiye’de servet, kişisel gelir dağılımı ve hanehalkı ve şirket borç stoklarının bütünleşik talep ve bileşenlerinin üzerindeki etkisini incelemek ve ülkenin talep rejimini tespit etmektir. Bu amaçla Türkiye ekonomisinin 1988-2019 dönemini post-Keynesgil bir çerçeve içerisinde inceledik. Bulgularımız, servet için kullanılan vekil değişkenin tüketim üzerinde küçük ama pozitif bir etkisi olduğunu, lakin yatırım üzerinde bir etkisi olmadığını ortaya koydu. Ekonometrik analizde kullanılan dört kişisel gelir dağılımı göstergesinden yalnızca birinin tüketim üzerinde çok küçük bir etkisi olduğunu ve hiçbirinin yatırım üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığını gözlemledik. Hanehalkı borçlarının muhtemelen ipotekler nedeniyle yeni yapılan gayrimenkulleri de içeren yatırım harcamaları üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olduğu, fakat tüketim harcamaları üzerinde hiçbir etkisi olmadığı ortaya çıktı. Ekonometrik tahminlerimiz aynı zamanda işletme borçlarının yatırımlar üzerinde negatif bir etkisi olduğuna işaret etti. Bulgularımızın bireşimi Türkiye’de talep rejiminin kâr-çekişli olduğunu gösterdi. Ancak değişkenlerin büyümeye katkılarının hesabı, bütünleşik talebin belirlenmesinde fonksiyonel gelir dağılımının ikincil, servet ve borç değişkenlerinin ise birincil bir rolü olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

References

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  • Blecker, R. A., Cauvel, M., & Kim, Y. K. (2022). Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(2), 391-420. https://doi. org/10.1093/cje/beab052 google scholar
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  • Hein, E., & Tarassow, A. (2010). Distribution, aggregate demand and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(4), 727-754. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep066 google scholar
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  • Jetin, B., & Ortiz, L.R. (2020). Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 43(3), 341-366. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2 020.1774392 google scholar
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  • Kiefer, D., & Rada, C. (2015). Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(5), 1333-1350. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu040 google scholar
  • Kim, Y. K., Setterfield, M., & Mei, Y. (2015). Aggregate consumption and debt accumulation: an empirical examination of US household behaviour. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(1), 93112. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu029 google scholar
  • Kohli, V. (2018). Functional income distribution and effective demand in India: An applied post Keynesian model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 41(3), 399-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/0 1603477.2018.1431795 google scholar
  • Kurt, O.E. (2020). Functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity growth in Turkey: A post-Kaleckian analysis. Metroeconomica, 71(4), 734-766. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12300 google scholar
  • Kurt, O.E. (2021). Instability of the US economy: A post- Kaleckian econometric analysis of functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity growth. Metu Studies in Development, 48(December), 251-288. Retrieved from http://www2.feas.metu.edu.tr/ metusd/ojs/index.php/metusd/article/view/1163 google scholar
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There are 58 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ozan Ekin Kurt 0000-0003-4943-5681

Publication Date January 18, 2023
Submission Date September 16, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Kurt, O. E. (2023). Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(2), 507-541. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155
AMA Kurt OE. Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. January 2023;72(2):507-541. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155
Chicago Kurt, Ozan Ekin. “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A Post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72, no. 2 (January 2023): 507-41. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
EndNote Kurt OE (January 1, 2023) Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72 2 507–541.
IEEE O. E. Kurt, “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol. 72, no. 2, pp. 507–541, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
ISNAD Kurt, Ozan Ekin. “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A Post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72/2 (January 2023), 507-541. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
JAMA Kurt OE. Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72:507–541.
MLA Kurt, Ozan Ekin. “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A Post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol. 72, no. 2, 2023, pp. 507-41, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
Vancouver Kurt OE. Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72(2):507-41.