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The Sectoral Costs of the Pandemic: What is the Role of Openness?

Year 2022, , 431 - 451, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055

Abstract

This study investigates the sectoral costs of the shocks during the pandemic period and analyzes the relationship of these costs with the openness of countries and sectors to trade. We use a model that focuses on the demand and supply side relations at the sectoral level. This model measures the effect of supply and demand-side shocks on the economy by exploiting the economic linkages between countries and their sectors using OECD Intercountry Input-Output tables. We compute supply and demand-side shocks concerning the course of the pandemic, and we consider the effects of these shocks on the sectors. The openness of the countries, or the proportions of exports and imports in the GDP of the countries, was taken into consideration when analyzing these effects. The pandemic’s impact on the nation’s economies through trade, such as through import and export channels, is bidirectional. When it comes to exports, the economic downturn seen among trading partners during the pandemic era likewise reduces an open country’s export potential. From the point of view of imports, the disruptions in production and supply chains during the pandemic period spread to the whole world through supply chains and caused problems in the supply of imported inputs. In this context, the results obtained in this article show that open countries have experienced heavier economic losses during the pandemic period. This result is consistent with the fact that open countries are more exposed to demand contraction and supply chain problems due to the pandemic. This finding is demonstrated by considering Turkey and Brazil as two examples, which have different openness structures. When we compare the costs of the pandemic period between Turkey, which is an emerging market with a high openness to trade, and Brazil, which is a relatively closed economy, it is seen that the costs computed for Turkey are higher. When we focus on the results in more detail, we observe that the sectoral costs are widespread in Turkey due to supply problems, and losses in sectors such as real estate, construction, and manufacturing, which have a high dependence on imported intermediate goods in their production, are higher than in Brazil. When we compare the US and the Netherlands, two developed countries, we find that the Netherlands, with its high level of openness, has higher costs.

References

  • Acemoglu, D., Chernozhukov, V., Werning, I., & Whinston, M. D. (2021). Optimal targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model. American Economic Review: Insights, 3(4), 487-502 google scholar
  • Alfaro, L., Becerra, O., & Eslava, M. (2020, June). EMEs and COVID-19 shutting down in a world of informal and tiny firms (Working Paper No. 27360). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Alon, T. M., Kim, M., Lagakos, D., & VanVuren, M. (2020). How should policy responses to thecovid-19 pandemic differ in the developing world? (Working Paper No. 27273). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Alvarez, F., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2021). A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lock-down, testing, and tracing. American Economic Review: Insights, 3(3), 367-82. google scholar
  • Baqaee, D., & Farhi, E. (2020). Nonlinear production networks with an application to the COVID-19 crisis (Working Paper No. 27281). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Baqaee, D., & Farhi, E. (2022). Supply and demand in disaggregated keynesian economies with an application to the COVID-19-19 crisis. American Economic Review, 112(5), 1397-1436. google scholar
  • Baqaee, D., Farhi, E., Mina, M. J., & Stock, J. H. (2020). Reopening scenarios (Working Paper No. 27244). National Bureau of Economic Research.13 google scholar
  • Barrot, J.-N., Grassi, B., & Sauvagnat, J. (2021). Sectoral effects of social distancing. In Aea papers and proceedings (Vol. 111, pp. 277-81). google scholar
  • Bonadio, B., Huo, Z., Levchenko, A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2021). Global supply chains in the pandemic. Journal of International Economics, 133, 103534. google scholar
  • Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Ergönül, Ö., Yeşiltaş,, S., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2022). Role of institutional, cultural and economic factors in the effectiveness of lockdown measures. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 116, 111-113. google scholar
  • Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Kalemli-Özcan, Ş.,Yeşiltaş,, S., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2020). Covid-19 and emerging markets: the case of turkey (EAF Working Paper No. 2011). Economic Research Forum. google scholar
  • Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., Stepner, M., & The Opportunity Insights Team. (2020). How did covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? a new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data (Working Paper No. 27431). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Dingel, J. I., & Neiman, B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104235. google scholar
  • Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2021). The macroeconomics of epidemics. The Review of Financial Studies, 34(11), 5149-5187. google scholar
  • Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R. (2021). Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic. Journal of Economic Theory, 196, 105293. google scholar
  • Goolsbee, A., & Syverson, C. (2021). Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020. Journal of Public Economics, 193, 104311. google scholar
  • Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L., & Werning, I. (2022). Macroeconomic implications of covid-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? American Economic Review, 112(5), 1437-74. google scholar
  • IHS Markit. (2022). https://news.ihsmarkit.com/ (Çevrimiçi) (20.08.2022) google scholar
  • Krueger, D., Uhlig, H., & Xie, T. (2022). Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic. Economic Policy, 37, 110, 341-398. google scholar
  • OECD Veritabanı, https://data.oecd.org/ google scholar
  • Stock, J. H. (2020). Data gaps and the policy response to the novel coronavirus (Working Paper No. 26902). National Bureau of Economic Research google scholar

Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?

Year 2022, , 431 - 451, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055

Abstract

Bu çalışmada pandemi döneminde oluşan şokların ülkeler üzerinde sektörel düzeyde maliyetleri incelenmiş, bu maliyetlerin ülkelerin ve sektörlerin dış ticarete açıklığıyla ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada sektörel seviyede arz ve talep ilişkilerini ele alan bir model kullanılmıştır. Bu modelde OECD ülkelerarası girdi-çıktı tablosu kullanılarak ülkeler ve sektörler arasındaki ekonomik bağlantılar kullanılarak arz ve talep taraflı şokların ekonomi üzerine etkisi ölçülmektedir. Arz ve talep yanlı şoklar pandeminin gidişatına bağlı olarak hesaplanmış daha sonra bu şokların sektörlere etkisi ele alınmıştır. Bu etkiler incelenirken özellikle ülkelerin dışa açıklığı yani ülkelerin Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasılası (GSYH) içinde ihracat ve ithalatın payları göz önüne alınmıştır. Pandeminin ülke ekonomilerine dış ticaret yoluyla etkisi ihracat ve ithalat kanallarıyla olmak üzere iki yönlüdür. İhracat açısından bakıldığında, pandemi döneminde ticaret ortaklarında gözlenen ekonomik yavaşlama dışa açık bir ülkenin ihracat imkanlarını da yavaşlatmaktadır. İthalat açısından bakıldığında ise pandemi döneminde üretimde yaşanan aksamalar tedarik zincirleri vasıtasıyla tüm dünyaya sirayet ederek ithal girdilerin tedariğinde sorunlara sebep olmuştur. Bu bağlamda bu makalede elde edilen sonuçlar da dışa açık ülkelerin pandemi döneminde daha ağır ekonomik kayıplar yaşadıklarını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, dışa açık olan ülkelerin pandemi kaynaklı talep daralması ve tedarik zinciri sorunlarına daha fazla maruz kalmaları ile tutarlıdır. Bu bulgu özellikle farklı dışa açıklık yapısı olan Türkiye ve Brezilya örnekleri üzerinden gösterilmiştir. Ticarete açıklığı yüksek bir gelişen pazar olan Türkiye ve görece daha kapalı olan Brezilya arasında pandemi dönemi maliyetlerini karşılaştırdığımızda Türkiye için hesaplanan maliyetlerin daha yüksek olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuçlara daha ayrıntılı baktığımızda, Türkiye’de arz sıkıntıları nedeni ile sektörel maliyetlerin genele yayıldığı, üretiminde ithal ara malına bağımlılığı yüksek olan gayrimenkul, inşaat, imalat gibi sektörlerde kayıpların Brezilya’dan daha yüksek olduğu gözlenmektedir. Benzer bir karşılaştırmayı iki gelişmiş ülke olan ABD ve Hollanda arasında yaptığımızda da dışa açıklığı yüksek olan Hollanda’nın daha yüksek maliyet ödediği gözlenmiştir..

References

  • Acemoglu, D., Chernozhukov, V., Werning, I., & Whinston, M. D. (2021). Optimal targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model. American Economic Review: Insights, 3(4), 487-502 google scholar
  • Alfaro, L., Becerra, O., & Eslava, M. (2020, June). EMEs and COVID-19 shutting down in a world of informal and tiny firms (Working Paper No. 27360). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Alon, T. M., Kim, M., Lagakos, D., & VanVuren, M. (2020). How should policy responses to thecovid-19 pandemic differ in the developing world? (Working Paper No. 27273). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Alvarez, F., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2021). A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lock-down, testing, and tracing. American Economic Review: Insights, 3(3), 367-82. google scholar
  • Baqaee, D., & Farhi, E. (2020). Nonlinear production networks with an application to the COVID-19 crisis (Working Paper No. 27281). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Baqaee, D., & Farhi, E. (2022). Supply and demand in disaggregated keynesian economies with an application to the COVID-19-19 crisis. American Economic Review, 112(5), 1397-1436. google scholar
  • Baqaee, D., Farhi, E., Mina, M. J., & Stock, J. H. (2020). Reopening scenarios (Working Paper No. 27244). National Bureau of Economic Research.13 google scholar
  • Barrot, J.-N., Grassi, B., & Sauvagnat, J. (2021). Sectoral effects of social distancing. In Aea papers and proceedings (Vol. 111, pp. 277-81). google scholar
  • Bonadio, B., Huo, Z., Levchenko, A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2021). Global supply chains in the pandemic. Journal of International Economics, 133, 103534. google scholar
  • Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Ergönül, Ö., Yeşiltaş,, S., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2022). Role of institutional, cultural and economic factors in the effectiveness of lockdown measures. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 116, 111-113. google scholar
  • Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Kalemli-Özcan, Ş.,Yeşiltaş,, S., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2020). Covid-19 and emerging markets: the case of turkey (EAF Working Paper No. 2011). Economic Research Forum. google scholar
  • Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., Stepner, M., & The Opportunity Insights Team. (2020). How did covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? a new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data (Working Paper No. 27431). National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Dingel, J. I., & Neiman, B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104235. google scholar
  • Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2021). The macroeconomics of epidemics. The Review of Financial Studies, 34(11), 5149-5187. google scholar
  • Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R. (2021). Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic. Journal of Economic Theory, 196, 105293. google scholar
  • Goolsbee, A., & Syverson, C. (2021). Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020. Journal of Public Economics, 193, 104311. google scholar
  • Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L., & Werning, I. (2022). Macroeconomic implications of covid-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? American Economic Review, 112(5), 1437-74. google scholar
  • IHS Markit. (2022). https://news.ihsmarkit.com/ (Çevrimiçi) (20.08.2022) google scholar
  • Krueger, D., Uhlig, H., & Xie, T. (2022). Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic. Economic Policy, 37, 110, 341-398. google scholar
  • OECD Veritabanı, https://data.oecd.org/ google scholar
  • Stock, J. H. (2020). Data gaps and the policy response to the novel coronavirus (Working Paper No. 26902). National Bureau of Economic Research google scholar
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Cem Çakmaklı 0000-0002-4688-2788

Sevda Demiralp 0000-0003-4087-168X

Sevcan Yeşiltaş 0000-0001-9446-6220

Muhammed Yıldırım 0000-0002-6990-0387

Publication Date January 18, 2023
Submission Date November 8, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Yeşiltaş, S., Yıldırım, M. (2023). Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(2), 431-451. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055
AMA Çakmaklı C, Demiralp S, Yeşiltaş S, Yıldırım M. Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. January 2023;72(2):431-451. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055
Chicago Çakmaklı, Cem, Sevda Demiralp, Sevcan Yeşiltaş, and Muhammed Yıldırım. “Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72, no. 2 (January 2023): 431-51. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055.
EndNote Çakmaklı C, Demiralp S, Yeşiltaş S, Yıldırım M (January 1, 2023) Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72 2 431–451.
IEEE C. Çakmaklı, S. Demiralp, S. Yeşiltaş, and M. Yıldırım, “Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol. 72, no. 2, pp. 431–451, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055.
ISNAD Çakmaklı, Cem et al. “Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72/2 (January 2023), 431-451. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055.
JAMA Çakmaklı C, Demiralp S, Yeşiltaş S, Yıldırım M. Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72:431–451.
MLA Çakmaklı, Cem et al. “Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol. 72, no. 2, 2023, pp. 431-5, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1201055.
Vancouver Çakmaklı C, Demiralp S, Yeşiltaş S, Yıldırım M. Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72(2):431-5.