Plastik Kart Harcamaları Hanehalkı Özel Tüketim Harcamaları Üzerinde Etkili mi? ARDL Yönteminden Ampirik Kanıtlar

Year 2022, Volume: 72 Issue: 2, 847 - 875, 18.01.2023

Serkan Göksu

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1106208

Abstract

Reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılanın yarısından daha fazlasını oluşturan özel tüketim harcamalarının makro ekonomi için olan önemi yadsınamaz. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı plastik kart harcamaları, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve enflasyonun özel tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisini Türkiye örneklemi üzerinden araştırmaktır. 2014-2021 dönemine ilişkin çeyreklik veriler kullanarak uygulanan doğrusal ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) yönteminden elde edilen sonuçlara göre: i) uzun dönemde özel tüketim harcamaları, plastik kart harcamaları, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve enflasyon değişkenleri arasında eş bütünleşik olduğu yani doğrusal birleşimlerinin denge noktasına yakınsandığı ii) uzun dönemde plastik kart harcamalarının ve gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılanın özel tüketim harcamalarını arttırdığı; enflasyonun ise özel tüketim harcamalarını azalttığı iii) kısa dönemde elde edilen katsayıların yönü itibariyle uzun dönemdekilerle paralel olduğu ancak özel tüketimi baskılamada enflasyonun kısa dönemde, uzun dönemdekinden daha büyük bir etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre: iv) özel tüketim harcaması ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve plastik kart harcamaları arasında; gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ile plastik kart harcamaları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi v) plastik kart harcamalarından enflasyona, enflasyondan da özel tüketim harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Hanehalklarının refah düzeylerini arttırmada politika yapıcılara enflasyonda kalıcı bir azalışı önceleyen bir bakış açısının gerektiği ve plastik kartlarda objektif limitlendirmeler yapılması önerilebilir.

Keywords

Plastik Kart, Kredi Kartı, ARDL

Supporting Institution

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Project Number

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Thanks

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Does Plastic Card Spending Have an Impact on Household Private Consumption Expenditures? Empirical Evidence Based on the ARDL Method

Abstract

Private consumption expenditures, which constitute more than half of the real gross domestic product, are significant for the macroeconomy. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of plastic card expenditures, gross domestic product, and inflation on private consumption expenditures through the case of Turkey. According to the results obtained from the linear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method applied using quarterly data for the period 2014-2021: i) long-term private consumption expenditures, plastic card expenditures, gross domestic product, and inflation variables are cointegrated such that their linear combinations converge to an equilibrium point; ii) plastic card expenditures in the long run and gross domestic product increased private consumption expenditures; and iii) the obtained short-term coefficients parallel those of the long-term, with inflation being more effective at suppressing private consumption in the short run than in the long run. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results: iv) bidirectional causality relationships exist between private consumption expenditure and gross domestic product, between private consumption expenditure and plastic card expenditure, and between gross domestic product and plastic card expenditures; and v) one-way causality relationships exist going from plastic card expenditures to inflation and from inflation to private consumption expenditures. Policymakers recommended that a perspective that prioritizes the fight against inflation is required to increase household welfare and that objective limitations should be placed on plastic cards.

Keywords

Plastic Card, Credit Card, ARDL

Project Number

yoktur.

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