Impact of Digital Payments on the Size of the Informal Economy: A Country-Based Analysis

Abstract

Since informal activities create negative effects such as tax loss, unfair competition and unfair income distribution on the economy, countries are trying to fight against informal economy and are implementing new methods with the development of technology. One of these methods is digital payments. The aims of this study are to investigate the impact of digital payments on the size of the informal economy and, if such an impact exists, to examine whether it differs between developed and developing countries and how the prevalence of technology use shapes this impact. The study uses a dataset from 2012 to 2020 for a total of 22 developed and developing countries. The dataset is analyzed using the Random Effects and mostly the Fixed Effects models. According to the empirical results, digital payments have a significant and negative impact on the size of the informal economy, and this impact is greater in developing countries. Furthermore, widespread use of technology amplifies this negative impact. Therefore, if countries want to curb informal activities, they should strengthen their technological infrastructure and move towards a cashless economy; however, they should also consider the disadvantages of a cashless society.

Keywords

• Informal economy
• digital payments
• financial technology
• panel data

Dijital Ödemelerin Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Büyüklüğüne Olan Etkisi: Ülke Bazında Bir İnceleme

Abstract

Kayıt dışı faaliyetler ekonomi üzerinde vergi kaybı, haksız rekabet ve adaletsiz bir gelir dağılımı gibi olumsuz etkiler yarattığından ülkeler kayıt dışı ekonomi ile mücadele etmeye çalışmakta ve teknolojinin gelişmesiyle beraber yeni yöntemler uygulamaktadırlar. Bu yöntemlerden biri de dijital ödemelerdir. Bu çalışmanın amacı dijital ödemelerin kayıt dışı ekonominin büyüklüğü üzerindeki etkisini, böyle bir etki mevcut ise bu etkinin gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde farklılık gösterip göstermediğini ve teknoloji kullanımı yaygınlığının bu etkiyi nasıl şekillendirdiğini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan 22 ülkeye ait 2012-2020 yılları arasını kapsayan bir panel veri seti kullanılmıştır. Veri seti Rassal Etkiler ve çoğunlukla Sabit Etkiler modelleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre dijital ödemeler kayıt dışı ekonominin büyüklüğünü azaltmakta olup bu etki gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha fazladır. Ek olarak, teknoloji kullanımı yaygınlığı bu negatif etkiyi güçlendirmektedir. Bu durumda ülkeler kayıt dışı faaliyetleri engellemek istiyorsa teknolojik altyapılarını güçlendirip nakitsiz bir ekonomiye doğru yol almalı; fakat aynı zamanda nakitsiz bir toplumun dezavantajlarını da göz önünde bulundurmalıdırlar.

Keywords

• Kayıt dışı ekonomi
• dijital ödemeler
• finansal teknoloji
• panel veri

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