TÜRKİYE’DE NÜFUS YAPISI VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ

Abstract

Enflasyon, günümüzde ekonomik istikrarın en önemli kaynaklarından birisidir. Enflasyonun belirleyicilerine yönelik yapılan çalışmalar ağırlıklı olarak ekonomik büyüme, döviz kuru, bütçe dengesi, parasal genişleme ve gelir eşitsizliği gibi değişkenlere odaklanmaktadır. Son dönemlerde ise sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerden birisi olan nüfus yapısının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini vurgulayan literatürün önem kazandığı görülmektedir. Özellikle gelişmiş ülkelerdeki deflasyonist süreç yaşlı nüfusun payının artışıyla ilişkilendirilmeye başlanmıştır. Varsayılan bu etkileşimin gelişmekte olan ülkeler kapsamında da analiz edilmesi yeni bakış açılarının gelişmesine kaynaklık etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, uzun zamandır enflasyonla mücadele eden Türkiye için 1980-2017 dönemi verileriyle nüfus yapısının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre bağımlı genç nüfus enflasyonu pozitif etkilerken, bağımlı yaşlı nüfus ise negatif etkilemektedir. Bootstrap Rolling Window nedensellik testi sonuçları ise enflasyon ile bağımlı yaşlı nüfus, enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon ile para arzı arasında iki yönlü, bağımlı genç nüfustan enflasyona doğru ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkinin varlığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Nüfus Yapısı
• Bağımlı Genç Nüfus
• Bağımlı Yaşlı Nüfus
• ARDL Sınır Testi

THE NEXUS BETWEEN POPULATION STRUCTURE AND INFLATION IN TURKEY

Abstract

Nowadays, inflation is one of the most important source of economic stability. The studies on determinants of inflation mainly focus on variables such as economic growth, exchange rate, budget balance, monetary expansion and income inequality. Recently, the literature that emphasizes the impact of population structure which is one of the socio-economic factors on inflation has came into prominence. Especially in developed countries, the deflationary process has started to associate with increase in the share of elderly population. Analyzing this assumed interaction in the context of developing countries also leads to develop the new aspects. In this study, impact of population structure on inflation was investigated for Turkey that has strived with the inflation for a long time, by using the data for the period 1980 and 2017. According to the findings, while the dependent young population affects inflation positively, dependent elderly population affects negatively. Bootstrap Rolling Window causality test results show that there is a two-way relationship between inflation and dependent elderly population, inflation and economic growth, inflation and money supply, and a oneway relationship from dependent young population to inflation.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Population Structure
• Dependent Young Population
• Dependent Elderly Population
• ARDL Bounds Testing

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