TARIM ÜRÜNLERİ FİYATLARI, HAM PETROL FİYATI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Abstract

Modern toplumların temel yapı taşı olan beşeri sermaye için, eğitim ve yeteneklerinin geliştirilmesinin yanı sıra yeterli ve sağlıklı gıdayla beslenmeye de ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Bu noktada ülkelerin ekonomik kalkınmalarının anahtarı olan unsurlardan biri gıda ve tarımdır. Bir ülkedeki tarım faaliyetleri aracılığıyla ülke halkına gıda temini ve endüstri için gerekli hammadde üretimi sağlanmaktadır. Bu nedenle, tarım ürünleri fiyatları ekonomiler için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Tarım ürünleri fiyatlarını etkileyen arz ve talep unsurlarının yanında, çeşitli makroekonomik unsurlar da bulunmaktadır. Bu unsurlar arasında özellikle döviz kurları ve petrol fiyatları ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de Ocak 2010 ve Aralık 2019 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak petrol fiyatı ve döviz kurlarının tarım ürünleri fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, döviz kuru değişkenin tarım ürünleri fiyatlarını pozitif etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Tarımsal Ürün Fiyatları
• Döviz Kuru
• Ham Petrol Fiyatı
• Gregory-Hansen Eşbütünleşme Testi

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT PRICES, CRUDE OIL PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Abstract

Human capital, which is the basic building block of modern societies, needs to be fed with sufficient and healthy food as well as improving education and skills. At this point, one of the keys to the economic development of countries is food and agriculture. With the agricultural activities in a country, food supply for the people and the necessary raw materials for industry are provided. Therefore, prices of agricultural products are of great importance for economies. In addition to the supply and demand affecting the prices of agricultural products, there are also various macroeconomic factors. Among these macroeconomic factors, especially oil prices and exchange rates are significant. In this study, the impact of exchange rates and oil prices on agricultural product prices was investigated with Gregory-Hansen cointegration test by using data of Turkey belong to the January 2010- December 2019 period. The findings show that the exchange rates affect the agricultural product prices positively.

Keywords

• Agricultural Product Prices
• Exchange Rate
• Crude Oil Prices
• Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test

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