MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS

Year 2020, Volume: 19 Issue: 37, 423 - 448, 01.06.2020

Bülent Aksoy

Abstract

Oil is an important input used in economic activities of any country. Hence, rise in its price is likely to adversely affect economic growth of oil importing countries like Turkey and China. and positive affect economic growth of exporting countries like Canada and Norway. The present study intends to examine the impact of oil price shocks on economic growth in sample of two exporters countries (Canada and Norway) and three importers countries (China, Turkey, and the USA) over the period Q1-1990 to Q4-2018. The results show that in the exporter' countries (Canada, and Norway), (based on Granger couslity test) the oil price flucations cause a change in economic growth and government revenue. however, the results for importers countries are different. For example, In Turkey, oil price instability and inflation cause a change in government revenue. In China changes in labor wages cause a change in GDP, and cause a change PPI accordingly. Finally, in USA, the results showed that, changes in oil prices reflected on the government revenue, and oil prices shocks can impact on USA GDP.

Keywords

Economic Growth, Oil Prices, Macroeconomics, Exporter Countries, Importers Countries, Shocks, VAR Model, Granger Causality

PETROL FİYAT ŞOKLARI MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ

Abstract

Ülkelerin ekonomik faaliyetlerinde önemli bir girdi olan Petrol ve buna bağlı petrol fiyatlarındaki artış, Türkiye ve Çin gibi petrol ithalatçısı ülkelerin ekonosindeki büyümeyi zaman zaman olumsuz; Kanada ve Norveç gibi ihracatçı ülkelerin ekonomisindeki büyümeyi ise çoğu zaman olumlu yönde etkilemektedir.
Bu çalışma, 1990 yılı 1.çeyrek ile 2018 yılı 4.çeyrek arasındaki dönemlerde, petrol ihracatçısı Kanada ve Norveç ile petrol ithalatçısı Çin, Türkiye ve ABD’yi örneklendirerek petrol fiyat şoklarının ekonomik büyümeye etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Granger nedensellik testiyle elde edilen sonuçlar, ihracatçı ülkelerdeki (Kanada ve Norveç) petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların ekonomik büyüme ve kamu gelirlerinde değişikliğe neden olduğunu göstermektedir. İthalatçı ülkelerde ise sonuçlar farklılık göstermektedir. Türkiye'de petrol fiyatı ve enflasyon, kamu gelirinde değişikliğe neden olurken Çin'de işgücü maaşlarındaki değişikliklere bağlı olarak GSYİH'da değişikliğe neden olmakta ve ÜFE’nin değişmesine de neden olduğu görülmektedir. ABD ile ilgili sonuçlar, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin devlet gelirine yansıdığını ve ABD GSYİH'sını etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Petrol Fiyatları, Makroekonomi, İhracatçı Ülkeler, İthalatçı Ülkeler, Şoklar, VAR Modeli, Granger Nedensellik

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