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TÜRKİYE’DE NÜFUS YAPISI VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ

Year 2020, Volume: 19 Issue: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı, 335 - 352, 31.07.2020

Abstract

Enflasyon, günümüzde ekonomik istikrarın en önemli kaynaklarından birisidir. Enflasyonun belirleyicilerine yönelik yapılan çalışmalar ağırlıklı olarak ekonomik büyüme, döviz kuru, bütçe dengesi, parasal genişleme ve gelir eşitsizliği gibi değişkenlere odaklanmaktadır. Son dönemlerde ise sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerden birisi olan nüfus yapısının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini vurgulayan literatürün önem kazandığı görülmektedir. Özellikle gelişmiş ülkelerdeki deflasyonist süreç yaşlı nüfusun payının artışıyla ilişkilendirilmeye başlanmıştır. Varsayılan bu etkileşimin gelişmekte olan ülkeler kapsamında da analiz edilmesi yeni bakış açılarının gelişmesine kaynaklık etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, uzun zamandır enflasyonla mücadele eden Türkiye için 1980-2017 dönemi verileriyle nüfus yapısının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre bağımlı genç nüfus enflasyonu pozitif etkilerken, bağımlı yaşlı nüfus ise negatif etkilemektedir.
Bootstrap Rolling Window nedensellik testi sonuçları ise enflasyon ile bağımlı yaşlı nüfus, enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon ile para arzı arasında iki yönlü, bağımlı genç nüfustan enflasyona doğru ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkinin varlığını göstermektedir.

References

  • Anderson, D., Botman, D. & Hunt, B. (2014). “Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?”. IMF Working Paper, WP/14/139, 1-22.
  • Andrews, D., Oberoi, J., Wirjanto, T. & Zhou, C. (2018). “Demography and Inflation: An International Study”. North American Actuarial Journal, 22(2), 210-222, DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2017.1387572.
  • Bobeica, E., Lis, E., Nickel, C. & Sun, Y. (2017). “Demographics and Inflation”. ECB Working Paper, No. 2006, 1-24.
  • Brander, J. A. & Dowrick, S. (1994). “The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth”. Journal of Population Economics, 7(1), 1-25.
  • Broniatowska, P. (2019). “Population Ageing and Inflation”. Population Ageing, 12, 179-193.
  • Bullard, J., Garriga, C. & Walker, C. J. (2012). “Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 94(6), 419-439.
  • Callen, T., Batini, N. & Spatafora, N. (2004). “How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy”. World Economic Outlook, 137-180.
  • Chun, Y. J. (2006). “Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy”. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 12265, 1-35.
  • Dao, M. Q. (2012). “Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6-17.
  • Efron, B. (1979). “Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife”. The Annals of Statistics, 7, 1-26.
  • Elmendorf, D. W. & Sheiner, L. M. (2000). “Should America Save for its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving”. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 57-74.
  • Faik, J. (2012). “Impacts of An Ageing Society on Macroeconomics and Income Inequality: The Case of Germany Since the 1980s”. (FaMa-Diskussionspapier, 5/2012). Frankfurt am Main: FaMa - Neue Frankfurter Sozialforschung. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-364531.
  • Fougère, M. & Mérette, M. (1998). “Population Ageing and the Current Account in Selected OECD Countries”. Department of Finance, 1-28.
  • Gajewski, P. (2015). “Is Ageing Deflationary? Some Evidence From OECD Countries”. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 916-919. DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.987911.
  • Hacker R. S. & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”. Appl Econ, 38(13), 1489-1500.
  • Hoang, T., Thi, V. & Minh, H. (2020). “The Impact of Exchange Rate on Inflation and Economic Growth in Vietnam”. Management Science Letters, 10(5), 1051-1060.
  • Horioka, C. Y. (2010). “Aging and Saving in Asia”. Pacific Economic Review, 15(1), 46-55.
  • Imam, P. A. (2015). “Shock From Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 20, 138-154.
  • Jaffri, A. A., Farooq, F. & Munir, F. (2016). “Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation in Pakistan”. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(1), 1-14.
  • Juselius, M. & Takáts, E. (2016). “The Age-Structure-Inflation Puzzle”. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, 1-17.
  • Juselius, M. & Takáts, E. (2018). “The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation”. Bank for International Settlements Working Papers, 1-23.
  • Keuschnigg, C., Davoine, T. & Schuster, P. (2015). “Aging, Pension Reform and the Current Account”. Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Research Report, 1-42.
  • Kronick, J. & Ambler, S. (2019). “Do Demographics Affect Monetary Policy Transmission in Canada?”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 787-811.
  • Lee, S. H., Mason, A. W. & Park, D. (2011). “Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Growth, and Economic Security in Asia”. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 284, 1-24.
  • Liu, Y. & Westelius, N. (2016). “The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan”. IMF Working Paper, WP/16/237, 1-17.
  • Muttaqin, F. & Halim, R. E. (2020). “The Effect of Economic Growth and Inflation on Tax Revenue: Analysis on Areas with Dominant Economic Activities in Agriculture, Plantation, and Fisheries Sectors”. In 3rd Asia Pacific International Conference of Management and Business Science (AICMBS 2019) (pp. 27-33). Atlantis Press.
  • Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S. & Prasad, A. D. (2006). “Modelling the Relationship Between Budget Deficits, Money Supply and Inflation in Fiji”. Pacific Economic Bulletin, 21(2), 103-116.
  • Ng, S. & Perron, P. (2001). “Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”. Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554.
  • Nwosu, C. P. (2019). “Inflation and Economic Growth Relationship in the West African Monetary Zone”. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Bradford.
  • Öztürk, S. & Çınar, U. (2018). “Kamu Dış Borçlanması ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Uygulama (1975-2016)”. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri, 2018/01, 66-79.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. (1987). “Time Series Regression with a Unit Root”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 277-301.
  • Phillips, P. C. & Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Pohnpattanapaisankul, K. (2019). “The Impact of Demographics on Inflation in Thailand”. Applied Economics Journal, 26(2), 1-21.
  • Rivera, E. G., Rojo, L. A. P. & Gómez, D. X. G. (2020). “Analysis of the Performance of the Inflation and Economic Growth Goals for Latin America”. Journal of Administrative Science, 1(2), 22-32.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011a). “Bubbles, Demographic Change and Natural Disasters”. Opening Speech at 2011 Annual International Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, June 1, 19-32.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011b). “Globalization and Population Aging: Challenges Facing Japan”. Speech to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren, December 22, 1-18.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2012). “Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences”. Opening Remark at 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, May 30, 1-24.
  • Sultana, N., Koli, R. & Firoj, M. (2019). “Causal Relationship of Money Supply and Inflation: A study of Bangladesh”. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(1), 42-51.
  • Tatlıyer, M. (2016). “Enflasyon Hedeflemesini Aşmak”. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları (SETA) Vakfı. Analiz, 168, 1-20.
  • Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). “Statistical Inferencein Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes”. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Tursoy, T. & Mar'i, M. (2020). “Lead-lag and Relationship Between Money Growth and inflation in Turkey: New Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis”. MPRA Paper No. 99595, 1-22.
  • Uddin, M. N., Uddin, M. J. & Ahmmed, M. (2019). “Money and Inflation Nexus in Bangladesh”. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(6), 702-711.
  • Uğurlu, E. & Saraçoğlu, B. (2010). “Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi ve Enflasyonun Öngörüsü”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(2), 57-72.
  • United Nations (2019). “World Population Ageing 2019: Highlights”. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
  • Van, D. (2019). “Money Supply and Inflation Impact on Economic Growth”. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121-136. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-10-2018-0152.
  • Vlandas, T. (2016). “The Impact of the Elderly on Inflation Rates in Developed Countries”. LSE Europe in Question, March (107), 1-66.
  • Weiske, S. (2019). “Population Growth, the Natural Rate of Interest, and Inflation”. German Council of Economic Experts Working Paper, 1-24.
  • World Bank (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.06.2020).
  • Yoon J. W., Kim, J. & Lee, J. (2014). “Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy”. IMF Working Paper

THE NEXUS BETWEEN POPULATION STRUCTURE AND INFLATION IN TURKEY

Year 2020, Volume: 19 Issue: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı, 335 - 352, 31.07.2020

Abstract

Nowadays, inflation is one of the most important source of economic stability. The studies on determinants of inflation mainly focus on variables such as economic growth, exchange rate, budget balance, monetary expansion and income inequality. Recently, the literature that emphasizes the impact of population structure which is one of the socio-economic factors on inflation has came into prominence. Especially in developed countries, the deflationary process has started to associate with increase in the share of elderly population. Analyzing this assumed interaction in the context of developing countries also leads to develop the new aspects. In this study, impact of population structure on inflation was investigated for Turkey that has strived with the inflation for a long time, by using the data for the period 1980 and 2017. According to the findings, while the dependent young population affects inflation positively, dependent elderly population affects negatively. Bootstrap Rolling Window causality test results show that there is a two-way relationship between inflation and dependent elderly population, inflation and economic growth, inflation and money supply, and a oneway relationship from dependent young population to inflation.

References

  • Anderson, D., Botman, D. & Hunt, B. (2014). “Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?”. IMF Working Paper, WP/14/139, 1-22.
  • Andrews, D., Oberoi, J., Wirjanto, T. & Zhou, C. (2018). “Demography and Inflation: An International Study”. North American Actuarial Journal, 22(2), 210-222, DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2017.1387572.
  • Bobeica, E., Lis, E., Nickel, C. & Sun, Y. (2017). “Demographics and Inflation”. ECB Working Paper, No. 2006, 1-24.
  • Brander, J. A. & Dowrick, S. (1994). “The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth”. Journal of Population Economics, 7(1), 1-25.
  • Broniatowska, P. (2019). “Population Ageing and Inflation”. Population Ageing, 12, 179-193.
  • Bullard, J., Garriga, C. & Walker, C. J. (2012). “Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 94(6), 419-439.
  • Callen, T., Batini, N. & Spatafora, N. (2004). “How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy”. World Economic Outlook, 137-180.
  • Chun, Y. J. (2006). “Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy”. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 12265, 1-35.
  • Dao, M. Q. (2012). “Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6-17.
  • Efron, B. (1979). “Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife”. The Annals of Statistics, 7, 1-26.
  • Elmendorf, D. W. & Sheiner, L. M. (2000). “Should America Save for its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving”. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 57-74.
  • Faik, J. (2012). “Impacts of An Ageing Society on Macroeconomics and Income Inequality: The Case of Germany Since the 1980s”. (FaMa-Diskussionspapier, 5/2012). Frankfurt am Main: FaMa - Neue Frankfurter Sozialforschung. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-364531.
  • Fougère, M. & Mérette, M. (1998). “Population Ageing and the Current Account in Selected OECD Countries”. Department of Finance, 1-28.
  • Gajewski, P. (2015). “Is Ageing Deflationary? Some Evidence From OECD Countries”. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 916-919. DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.987911.
  • Hacker R. S. & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”. Appl Econ, 38(13), 1489-1500.
  • Hoang, T., Thi, V. & Minh, H. (2020). “The Impact of Exchange Rate on Inflation and Economic Growth in Vietnam”. Management Science Letters, 10(5), 1051-1060.
  • Horioka, C. Y. (2010). “Aging and Saving in Asia”. Pacific Economic Review, 15(1), 46-55.
  • Imam, P. A. (2015). “Shock From Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 20, 138-154.
  • Jaffri, A. A., Farooq, F. & Munir, F. (2016). “Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation in Pakistan”. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(1), 1-14.
  • Juselius, M. & Takáts, E. (2016). “The Age-Structure-Inflation Puzzle”. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, 1-17.
  • Juselius, M. & Takáts, E. (2018). “The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation”. Bank for International Settlements Working Papers, 1-23.
  • Keuschnigg, C., Davoine, T. & Schuster, P. (2015). “Aging, Pension Reform and the Current Account”. Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Research Report, 1-42.
  • Kronick, J. & Ambler, S. (2019). “Do Demographics Affect Monetary Policy Transmission in Canada?”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 787-811.
  • Lee, S. H., Mason, A. W. & Park, D. (2011). “Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Growth, and Economic Security in Asia”. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 284, 1-24.
  • Liu, Y. & Westelius, N. (2016). “The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan”. IMF Working Paper, WP/16/237, 1-17.
  • Muttaqin, F. & Halim, R. E. (2020). “The Effect of Economic Growth and Inflation on Tax Revenue: Analysis on Areas with Dominant Economic Activities in Agriculture, Plantation, and Fisheries Sectors”. In 3rd Asia Pacific International Conference of Management and Business Science (AICMBS 2019) (pp. 27-33). Atlantis Press.
  • Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S. & Prasad, A. D. (2006). “Modelling the Relationship Between Budget Deficits, Money Supply and Inflation in Fiji”. Pacific Economic Bulletin, 21(2), 103-116.
  • Ng, S. & Perron, P. (2001). “Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”. Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554.
  • Nwosu, C. P. (2019). “Inflation and Economic Growth Relationship in the West African Monetary Zone”. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Bradford.
  • Öztürk, S. & Çınar, U. (2018). “Kamu Dış Borçlanması ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Uygulama (1975-2016)”. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri, 2018/01, 66-79.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. (1987). “Time Series Regression with a Unit Root”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 277-301.
  • Phillips, P. C. & Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Pohnpattanapaisankul, K. (2019). “The Impact of Demographics on Inflation in Thailand”. Applied Economics Journal, 26(2), 1-21.
  • Rivera, E. G., Rojo, L. A. P. & Gómez, D. X. G. (2020). “Analysis of the Performance of the Inflation and Economic Growth Goals for Latin America”. Journal of Administrative Science, 1(2), 22-32.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011a). “Bubbles, Demographic Change and Natural Disasters”. Opening Speech at 2011 Annual International Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, June 1, 19-32.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011b). “Globalization and Population Aging: Challenges Facing Japan”. Speech to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren, December 22, 1-18.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2012). “Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences”. Opening Remark at 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, May 30, 1-24.
  • Sultana, N., Koli, R. & Firoj, M. (2019). “Causal Relationship of Money Supply and Inflation: A study of Bangladesh”. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(1), 42-51.
  • Tatlıyer, M. (2016). “Enflasyon Hedeflemesini Aşmak”. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları (SETA) Vakfı. Analiz, 168, 1-20.
  • Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). “Statistical Inferencein Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes”. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Tursoy, T. & Mar'i, M. (2020). “Lead-lag and Relationship Between Money Growth and inflation in Turkey: New Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis”. MPRA Paper No. 99595, 1-22.
  • Uddin, M. N., Uddin, M. J. & Ahmmed, M. (2019). “Money and Inflation Nexus in Bangladesh”. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(6), 702-711.
  • Uğurlu, E. & Saraçoğlu, B. (2010). “Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi ve Enflasyonun Öngörüsü”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(2), 57-72.
  • United Nations (2019). “World Population Ageing 2019: Highlights”. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
  • Van, D. (2019). “Money Supply and Inflation Impact on Economic Growth”. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121-136. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-10-2018-0152.
  • Vlandas, T. (2016). “The Impact of the Elderly on Inflation Rates in Developed Countries”. LSE Europe in Question, March (107), 1-66.
  • Weiske, S. (2019). “Population Growth, the Natural Rate of Interest, and Inflation”. German Council of Economic Experts Working Paper, 1-24.
  • World Bank (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.06.2020).
  • Yoon J. W., Kim, J. & Lee, J. (2014). “Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy”. IMF Working Paper
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Müge Manga 0000-0003-2675-2182

Orhan Cengiz 0000-0002-1883-4754

Publication Date July 31, 2020
Submission Date June 16, 2020
Acceptance Date July 24, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 19 Issue: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı

Cite

APA Manga, M., & Cengiz, O. (2020). TÜRKİYE’DE NÜFUS YAPISI VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek), 335-352.