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YABANCI ALIMLARI, BORSA ENDEKSİ VE KUR ARASINDA KAPSANMAMIŞ VARLIK PARİTESİ TEORİSİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİNİN SINANMASI: JAPONYA, G. KORE VE TÜRKİYE İÇİN EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Year 2020, Volume: 19 Issue: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı, 527 - 553, 31.07.2020

Abstract

Bu çalışmada; Kapsanmamış Varlık Paritesi (Uncovered Equity Parity: UEP) Teorisinin geçerliliği; Japonya, G. Kore ve Türkiye’nin 2002:M01-2020:M04 dönemi verileriyle analiz edilmiştir. Analizler 2008 küresel krizine göre üç alt dönem için de yinelenmiştir.
Serilerin durağanlıkları Ng-Perron (2001) testiyle incelenmiş ve serilerin I(1) oldukları görülmüştür. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkileri Phillips-Ouliaris (1990) eşbütünleşme testiyle incelenmiş ve tüm modellerde eşbütünleşmenin olduğu belirlenmiştir. Uzun ve kısa dönem analizleri DOLS yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilmiş olup, Japonya’da UEP Teorisinin 1. aşamasının 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi döneminde, 3. aşamasının 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi dönemi ve sonrasında geçerli olduğu görülmüştür. G. Kore’de sadece 2008 krizi sonrası dönemde UEP Teorisinin 2. aşaması geçerli çıkmıştır. Türkiye’de ise UEP Teorisinin 1. aşamasının tüm 2002-2020 dönemi boyunca geçerli olduğu bulunmuştur. UEP Teorisinin 3. aşamasının 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi ve sonrası dönemde yaşandığı belirlenmiştir.
Kısa dönem analizleri de DOLS yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilmiş ve Japonya’da; UEP Teorisinin 2. aşamasının 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi sonrası dönemde, UEP Teorisinin 3. aşamasının tüm 2002-2020 döneminde geçerli olduğu görülmüştür. G. Kore’de UEP Teorisinin hiçbir aşamasının geçerli olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’deyse UEP Teorisinin 1. aşamasının sadece küresel kriz öncesi dönemde geçerli olduğu, UEP Teorisinin 2. aşamasının 2002-2020 döneminde geçerli olduğu, 3. aşamasınınsa kısa dönemde geçerli olmadığı bulunmuştur.

References

  • Andriansyah, A. and Messinis, G. (2019). Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Portfolio Equity Flows: A Toda-Yamamoto Panel Causality Test. MPRA Paper 97992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Bostan, I., Toderaşcu, C. and Firtescu, B.-N. (2018). Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(19), 1-11.
  • Cappiello, L., and De Santis, R. A. (2005). Explaining Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Uncovered Equity Return Parity Condition. ECB Working Paper, No. 529.
  • Cappiello, L. and De Santis, R. A. (2007). The uncovered return parity condition. ECB Working Paper, No. 812.
  • Combes, J.L., Kinda, T. and Plane, P. (2011). Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper, No. 11/9.
  • Curcuru, S. E., Thomas, C. P., Warnock, F. E. and Wongswan, J. (2014). Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios. Journal of International Money and Finance, 47, 86–99.
  • Dahlquist, M. ve Robertsson, G. (2004). A Note on Foreigners’ Trading and Price Effects Across Firms. Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 615 – 632.
  • Davis, J.S., Valente, G. and Wincoop, E.V. (2019). Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers, No. 357.
  • Dimitrova, D. (2005). The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Studied in a Multivariate Model. Issues in Political Economy, 14, 1-25.
  • Dunne, P., Hau, H., and Moore, M. (2010). International Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(2), 358 – 386.
  • Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. and Rigobon, R. (2005). Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates Measuring International Financial Transmission. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No.452.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Gujarati, D. N. and Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri. (Beşinci Basımdan Çeviri). (Çev: Şenesen, Ü. ve Şenesen, G. G.). Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • Hau, H. and Rey, H. (2004). Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows and Exchange Rates? American Economic Review, 94(2), 126 – 133.
  • Hau, H. and Rey, H. (2006). Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows. Review of Financial Studies, 19(1), 273-317.
  • Hau, H. and Rey H. (2008). Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope. NBER Working Paper, No. 14165.
  • Hayashi, F. (2000). Econometrics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Jensen, J. L. W. V. (1906). Sur Les Fonctions Convexes et Les Inégalités Entre Les Valeurs Moyennes. Acta Mathematica, 30(1), 175–193. doi:10.1007/BF02418571.
  • Kao, C. and Chiang, M. H. (2000). On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179-222.
  • Kim, H. (2011). The Risk Adjusted Uncovered Equity Parity. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(7), 1491-1505.
  • Kodongo, C. O. (2011). Foreign Exchange Risk and the Flow of International Portfolio Capital: Evidence from Africa’s Capital Markets. Dissertation Submitted in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance Graduate School of Business Administration University of the Witwatersrand.
  • Monfared, S. S. and Akın, F. (2017). The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation: The Case of Iran. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(4), 329-340.
  • Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69, 1529–1554.
  • Özatay, F. (2009). Finansal Krizler ve Türkiye. (1. Baskı). Doğan Kitap, İstanbul.
  • Park, Y. C. and Park, H. (2014). Stock Market Co-Movement and Exchange Rate Flexibility: Experience of the Republic of Korea. ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 479.
  • Phillips, P. C. and Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 58(1), 165–193.
  • Richards, A. (2005). Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behavior and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40, 1–27.
  • Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation. Econometric Theory, 8, 1-27.
  • Singh, A. (1997). Financial Liberalisation, Stockmarkets and Economic Development. The Economic Journal, 107, 771 – 782.
  • Siourounis, G. (2004). Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Analysis. London Business School IFA Working Paper No. 400.
  • Stock, J. and Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
  • Tarı, R. (2012). Ekonometri. (8. Baskı). Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • World Bank (2020a). GDP (Current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?view=chart, (Erişim: 23.06.2020).
  • World Bank (2020b). Population, total. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, (Erişim: 23.06.2020).
  • World Bank (2020c). GDP per capita (current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?view=chart, (Erişim: 23.06.2020).

TESTING THE VALIDITY of THE UNCOVERED EQUITY PARITY THEORY AMONG FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOWS, THE STOCK MARKET INDICES and THE EXCHANGE RATES: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS FOR JAPAN, S. KOREA, and TURKEY

Year 2020, Volume: 19 Issue: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı, 527 - 553, 31.07.2020

Abstract

In this study, the validity of the Uncovered Equity Parity (UEP) Theory is analyzed based on the data obtained from Japan, South Korea, and Turkey in the 2002:M01-2020:M04 period. The analyzes are also conducted for all three sub-periods according to the 2008 global crisis.
The stationarity of the series is examined by the Ng-Perron (2001) test, and the series are found to be I (1). Cointegration between the series are examined by Phillips-Ouliaris (1990) cointegration test and it is determined that series are cointegrated in all models. Long and short term analyzes are carried out with the DOLS method, and it is observed that the first stage of the UEP Theory in Japan is valid during the 2008 global economic crisis period, and the third stage is valid during and after the 2008 global economic crisis. Only the second phase of the UEP Theory is valid in the post-2008 crisis in S. Korea. In Turkey, 1st phase of the UEP theory is valid for the entire 2002-2020 period. It is determined that the third stage of the UEP Theory is experienced during the 2008 global economic crisis and after.
Short term analyzes are also carried out with the DOLS method, and it is observed that, in Japan, the second stage of the UEP Theory is valid in the period after the 2008 global economic crisis and the third stage of the UEP Theory is valid throughout the 2002-2020 period. It is found that no stage of the UEP Theory is valid in S. Korea. It has been found that the first phase of the UEP Theory is valid only during the pre-crisis period in Turkey, the second phase is valid during the 2002 to 2020 period, and the third phase is found to be invalid in the short term.

References

  • Andriansyah, A. and Messinis, G. (2019). Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Portfolio Equity Flows: A Toda-Yamamoto Panel Causality Test. MPRA Paper 97992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Bostan, I., Toderaşcu, C. and Firtescu, B.-N. (2018). Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(19), 1-11.
  • Cappiello, L., and De Santis, R. A. (2005). Explaining Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Uncovered Equity Return Parity Condition. ECB Working Paper, No. 529.
  • Cappiello, L. and De Santis, R. A. (2007). The uncovered return parity condition. ECB Working Paper, No. 812.
  • Combes, J.L., Kinda, T. and Plane, P. (2011). Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper, No. 11/9.
  • Curcuru, S. E., Thomas, C. P., Warnock, F. E. and Wongswan, J. (2014). Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios. Journal of International Money and Finance, 47, 86–99.
  • Dahlquist, M. ve Robertsson, G. (2004). A Note on Foreigners’ Trading and Price Effects Across Firms. Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 615 – 632.
  • Davis, J.S., Valente, G. and Wincoop, E.V. (2019). Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers, No. 357.
  • Dimitrova, D. (2005). The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Studied in a Multivariate Model. Issues in Political Economy, 14, 1-25.
  • Dunne, P., Hau, H., and Moore, M. (2010). International Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(2), 358 – 386.
  • Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. and Rigobon, R. (2005). Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates Measuring International Financial Transmission. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No.452.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Gujarati, D. N. and Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri. (Beşinci Basımdan Çeviri). (Çev: Şenesen, Ü. ve Şenesen, G. G.). Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • Hau, H. and Rey, H. (2004). Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows and Exchange Rates? American Economic Review, 94(2), 126 – 133.
  • Hau, H. and Rey, H. (2006). Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows. Review of Financial Studies, 19(1), 273-317.
  • Hau, H. and Rey H. (2008). Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope. NBER Working Paper, No. 14165.
  • Hayashi, F. (2000). Econometrics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Jensen, J. L. W. V. (1906). Sur Les Fonctions Convexes et Les Inégalités Entre Les Valeurs Moyennes. Acta Mathematica, 30(1), 175–193. doi:10.1007/BF02418571.
  • Kao, C. and Chiang, M. H. (2000). On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179-222.
  • Kim, H. (2011). The Risk Adjusted Uncovered Equity Parity. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(7), 1491-1505.
  • Kodongo, C. O. (2011). Foreign Exchange Risk and the Flow of International Portfolio Capital: Evidence from Africa’s Capital Markets. Dissertation Submitted in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance Graduate School of Business Administration University of the Witwatersrand.
  • Monfared, S. S. and Akın, F. (2017). The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation: The Case of Iran. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(4), 329-340.
  • Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69, 1529–1554.
  • Özatay, F. (2009). Finansal Krizler ve Türkiye. (1. Baskı). Doğan Kitap, İstanbul.
  • Park, Y. C. and Park, H. (2014). Stock Market Co-Movement and Exchange Rate Flexibility: Experience of the Republic of Korea. ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 479.
  • Phillips, P. C. and Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 58(1), 165–193.
  • Richards, A. (2005). Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behavior and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40, 1–27.
  • Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation. Econometric Theory, 8, 1-27.
  • Singh, A. (1997). Financial Liberalisation, Stockmarkets and Economic Development. The Economic Journal, 107, 771 – 782.
  • Siourounis, G. (2004). Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Analysis. London Business School IFA Working Paper No. 400.
  • Stock, J. and Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
  • Tarı, R. (2012). Ekonometri. (8. Baskı). Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • World Bank (2020a). GDP (Current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?view=chart, (Erişim: 23.06.2020).
  • World Bank (2020b). Population, total. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, (Erişim: 23.06.2020).
  • World Bank (2020c). GDP per capita (current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?view=chart, (Erişim: 23.06.2020).
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Mustafa Özyeşil 0000-0002-4442-7087

Publication Date July 31, 2020
Submission Date July 6, 2020
Acceptance Date July 17, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 19 Issue: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı

Cite

APA Özyeşil, M. (2020). TESTING THE VALIDITY of THE UNCOVERED EQUITY PARITY THEORY AMONG FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOWS, THE STOCK MARKET INDICES and THE EXCHANGE RATES: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS FOR JAPAN, S. KOREA, and TURKEY. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek), 527-553.