Purpose: This study examines Turkey's bilateral trade intercourse with Russia in order to identify potentialities and problems for Turkey caused by the Russia-Ukraine War. Method/Design/Methodology/Approach: In the course of the study, with the help of descriptive statistics and calculations of trade indices such as trade intensity and trade complementarity indices, the current state of Russian-Turkish trade was examined. Afterwards, commodity sectors in which supply is expected to fall due to international companies’ suspension of businesses were identified. Next, the revealed comparative advantage index and its dynamic form were calculated to assess Turkey's potentialities to export commodities of the identified sectors to Russia and to highlight commodities groups where export policy should be improved. Thus, the study considers Russia and Turkey not as competitors, but as partners. Findings: It has been concluded that the countries have tight-connections and, to a certain extent, are dependent on one another. Both Russia and Turkey can benefit from further intensifying bilateral trade and improving partnership in other spheres as well. Originality: There is substantial literature comparing Russia and Turkey with other countries, trade blocks or with each other, mainly these two countries are counterposed from a competition perspective. This article, on the contrary, evaluates how cooperation and bilateral trade can improve the economic situation of both Russia and Turkey.
Agha, N. I. (2021). Reimagining Turkey-Russia relations: an analysis of the Plane Crisis. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, 8(2), 429–457. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.949060
Arafat, M., & Alnuaimy, M. (2011). The Turkish-Russian relations in the era of AKP. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(2), 103–133. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr
Balassa, B (1965). Trade liberalisation and revealed comparative advantage. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 33(2), 99–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
Balta, E. (2019). From geopolitical competition to strategic partnership: Turkey and Russia after the Cold War. Uluslararasi İliskiler Dergisi, 16(63), 69–86. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.621309
Bechev, D. (2021, April 14). Turkey’s tightrope between Russia and the United States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from https://carnegiemoscow.org
Diaz-Printz J., & Çuhadar E. (2022, April 28). To sustain hopes for peace in Ukraine keep an eye on Turkey. United States Institute of Peace. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org
Edwards L., & Schoer V. (2002). Measures of competitiveness: a dynamic approach to South Africa's trade performance in the 1990s. South African Journal of Economics, 70(6), 1008–1046. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2002.tb00055.x
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2022). The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2022. Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable. Rome, FAO. 20–21. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en
Güneş, S., & Tan, M. (2017). Static and dynamic revealed comparative advantage: a comparative analysis of Turkey and Russia. İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 4(3), 22–38. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr
Hamilton R.E., & Mikulska A. (2021). Cooperation, competition, and compartmentalization: Russian-Turkish Relations and their implication for the West. Philadelphia, PA: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved from https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/russian-turkish-relations-bssp.pdf
Hufbauer, C.G., & Chilas J.C. (1974). Specialization by industrial countries: extent and consequences. The International Division of Labour: Problems and Perspectives, International Symposium. Tubingen: J.C.B. Mohr, 3–38.
International Energy Agency (2021). Turkey 2021 Energy Policy Review. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/turkey-2021
Khodunov, A.S. (2016). Russian-Turkish relations in the 1991-2010s. RUDN Journal of World History, (4), 85–110. Retrieved from https://journals.rudn.ru
Kojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16–36. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
Koch, L., Chaudhary M.A., & Bilquees, F. (2001). February 2001 Crisis in Turkey: causes and consequences. The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 467–486. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
Makovsky, A. (2019, March 13). Turkey’s refugee dilemma. Center for American Progress. Retrieved from https://www.americanprogress.org
Michaely, M. (1996). Trade preferential agreements in Latin America: an ex-ante assessment-policy. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org
Ministry of Culture and Tourism (2021). Border Statistics Annual Bulletin. Retrieved from https://www.ktb.gov.tr/EN-249299/yearly-bulletins.html
Pearson, R.W. (2022, March 28). Turkey between Ukraine and Russia. Middle East Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mei.edu
Rating Forbes: 50 largest foreign companies in Russia. (2021). Forbes Media. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.ru
Shakhov, K. (2022, June 13). Russia’s rouble is now stronger than before the War – Western sanctions are partly to blame. The Conversation. Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/europe
Simay Karaalp, H. (2011). Competitiveness of Turkey in Eurasia: a comparison with CIS countries. China-USA Business Review, 10(9), 727–744. https://doi.org/10.36880/C01.00210
Şimşek, N., Şimşek, H. A., & Zhanaltay, Z. (2017). Analysis of bilateral trade relations between Turkey and Russia Federation. Bilig, 83, 1–26. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/
Turkey becomes major East-West energy corridor: VP. (2020, January 1). Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved from https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com
Ulchenko, N., & Shlikov, P. (2014). Dynamics of Russian-Turkish relations in the context of global instability. Retrieved from https://book.ivran.ru
Yale School of Management. (2022). Yale CELI list of companies leaving and staying in Russia. Retrieved June 10, 2022, from https://www.yalerussianbusinessretreat.com
Yılmaz, B. (2002). Turkey’s competitiveness in the European Union. a comparison of Greece, Portugal, Spain and the EU/12/15. Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 38(3), 54–72. https://doi.org/10.2307/27749627
Yılmaz, B. (2003). Turkey’s competitiveness in the European Union: a comparison with five candidate countries – Bulgaria, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania – and the EU15. Ezoneplus Working Paper, 12. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/
Yildiz, G. (2021). Turkish-Russian adversarial collaboration in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. SWP Comment, 22/2021. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik-SWP-Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit. https://doi.org/10.18449/2021C22
Türkiye-Rusya İkili Ticaret İlişkisinin Analizi: Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının Zorlukları ve Fırsatları
Year 2024,
Volume: 23 Issue: 50, 1876 - 1902, 30.09.2024
Amaç: Bu araştırma, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı'nın Türkiye için yarattığı potansiyelleri ve sorunları tespit etmek için Türkiye'nin Rusya ile ikili ticari ilişkilerini incelemektedir. Yöntem/Tasarım / Metodoloji / Yaklaşım: Çalışma kapsamında, tanımlayıcı istatistikler ve ticaret yoğunluğu ve ticaret tamamlayıcılık endeksleri gibi ticaret endekslerinin hesaplamaları yardımıyla, Rusya-Türkiye ticaretinin mevcut durumu analiz edilmiştir. Ardından, uluslararası şirketlerin faaliyetlerini durdurması nedeniyle arzın düşmesinin beklendiği emtia sektörleri belirlendi. Türkiye'nin belirlenen sektörlere ait malları Rusya'ya ihraç etme potansiyelini değerlendirmek ve ihracat politikasının iyileştirilmesi gereken mal gruplarını vurgulamak için açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlük endeksi ve onun dinamik formu hesaplandı. Bu nedenle çalışma, Rusya ve Türkiye'yi artık rakip, ancak ortak olarak görmektedir. Bulgular: Ülkelerin sıkı bağlara sahip olduğu ve bir ölçüde de birbirine bağımlı olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Hem Rusya hem de Türkiye, ikili ticaretin daha da yoğunlaştırılmasından ve diğer alanlarda da ortaklığın geliştirilmesinden yararlanabilir. Özgünlük: Rusya ve Türkiye'yi diğer ülkelerle, ticaret bloklarıyla veya birbirleriyle karşılaştıran önemli bir literatür vardır, esas olarak bu iki ülke rekabet perspektifinden karşı karşıya getiriliyor. Bu makale, aksine, işbirliğinin ve ikili ticaretin hem Rusya hem de Türkiye'nin ekonomik durumunu nasıl iyileştirebileceğini değerlendiriyor.
Agha, N. I. (2021). Reimagining Turkey-Russia relations: an analysis of the Plane Crisis. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, 8(2), 429–457. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.949060
Arafat, M., & Alnuaimy, M. (2011). The Turkish-Russian relations in the era of AKP. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(2), 103–133. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr
Balassa, B (1965). Trade liberalisation and revealed comparative advantage. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 33(2), 99–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
Balta, E. (2019). From geopolitical competition to strategic partnership: Turkey and Russia after the Cold War. Uluslararasi İliskiler Dergisi, 16(63), 69–86. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.621309
Bechev, D. (2021, April 14). Turkey’s tightrope between Russia and the United States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from https://carnegiemoscow.org
Diaz-Printz J., & Çuhadar E. (2022, April 28). To sustain hopes for peace in Ukraine keep an eye on Turkey. United States Institute of Peace. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org
Edwards L., & Schoer V. (2002). Measures of competitiveness: a dynamic approach to South Africa's trade performance in the 1990s. South African Journal of Economics, 70(6), 1008–1046. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2002.tb00055.x
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2022). The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2022. Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable. Rome, FAO. 20–21. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en
Güneş, S., & Tan, M. (2017). Static and dynamic revealed comparative advantage: a comparative analysis of Turkey and Russia. İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 4(3), 22–38. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr
Hamilton R.E., & Mikulska A. (2021). Cooperation, competition, and compartmentalization: Russian-Turkish Relations and their implication for the West. Philadelphia, PA: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved from https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/russian-turkish-relations-bssp.pdf
Hufbauer, C.G., & Chilas J.C. (1974). Specialization by industrial countries: extent and consequences. The International Division of Labour: Problems and Perspectives, International Symposium. Tubingen: J.C.B. Mohr, 3–38.
International Energy Agency (2021). Turkey 2021 Energy Policy Review. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/turkey-2021
Khodunov, A.S. (2016). Russian-Turkish relations in the 1991-2010s. RUDN Journal of World History, (4), 85–110. Retrieved from https://journals.rudn.ru
Kojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16–36. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
Koch, L., Chaudhary M.A., & Bilquees, F. (2001). February 2001 Crisis in Turkey: causes and consequences. The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 467–486. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
Makovsky, A. (2019, March 13). Turkey’s refugee dilemma. Center for American Progress. Retrieved from https://www.americanprogress.org
Michaely, M. (1996). Trade preferential agreements in Latin America: an ex-ante assessment-policy. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org
Ministry of Culture and Tourism (2021). Border Statistics Annual Bulletin. Retrieved from https://www.ktb.gov.tr/EN-249299/yearly-bulletins.html
Pearson, R.W. (2022, March 28). Turkey between Ukraine and Russia. Middle East Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mei.edu
Rating Forbes: 50 largest foreign companies in Russia. (2021). Forbes Media. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.ru
Shakhov, K. (2022, June 13). Russia’s rouble is now stronger than before the War – Western sanctions are partly to blame. The Conversation. Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/europe
Simay Karaalp, H. (2011). Competitiveness of Turkey in Eurasia: a comparison with CIS countries. China-USA Business Review, 10(9), 727–744. https://doi.org/10.36880/C01.00210
Şimşek, N., Şimşek, H. A., & Zhanaltay, Z. (2017). Analysis of bilateral trade relations between Turkey and Russia Federation. Bilig, 83, 1–26. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/
Turkey becomes major East-West energy corridor: VP. (2020, January 1). Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved from https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com
Ulchenko, N., & Shlikov, P. (2014). Dynamics of Russian-Turkish relations in the context of global instability. Retrieved from https://book.ivran.ru
Yale School of Management. (2022). Yale CELI list of companies leaving and staying in Russia. Retrieved June 10, 2022, from https://www.yalerussianbusinessretreat.com
Yılmaz, B. (2002). Turkey’s competitiveness in the European Union. a comparison of Greece, Portugal, Spain and the EU/12/15. Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 38(3), 54–72. https://doi.org/10.2307/27749627
Yılmaz, B. (2003). Turkey’s competitiveness in the European Union: a comparison with five candidate countries – Bulgaria, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania – and the EU15. Ezoneplus Working Paper, 12. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/
Yildiz, G. (2021). Turkish-Russian adversarial collaboration in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. SWP Comment, 22/2021. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik-SWP-Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit. https://doi.org/10.18449/2021C22
Kurt Gümüş, G., & Kramskova, M. (2024). AN ANALYSIS OF BILATERAL TRADE RELATION BETWEEN TURKEY AND RUSSIA: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(50), 1876-1902. https://doi.org/10.46928/iticusbe.1343400