The Relationship between Migration and Economic Growth in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
Abstract
In this study has been examined the relationship between economic growth and immigration which has attracted attention recently. In this study in the period, 1991-2018 gross domestic product and the total immigrant population are used data annual Turkey’s who is home to a lot of immigrants in recent years. In this study, the question of whether international migration leads to economic growth has been started. The main aim of this study examined the migration taking centers of economic growth is to identify the problems associated with economic growth in Turkey. Toda-Yamamoto causality method for this purpose in Turkey 1991-2018 period is concerned with an annual gross domestic product and total immigrant population data it was determined the direction of the causal relationship between the two variables. Turkey in recent years, especially in the study and investigation of the relationship between economic growth and population increase of immigrants faced in many countries are expected to contribute to the literature in terms. In addition, although the studies in the literature on the subject of Turkey is estimated to create differences in terms of examining the relationship between economic growth and migration. In order to determine the causal relationship between economic growth and migration, first of all, ADF, KPSS, and Box-Ljung tests were used for stability testing. Then, the Engle-Granger cointegration test was used to investigate whether there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. Finally, the causality relationship between economic growth and migration and the direction of this relationship was determined by the Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test. Empirical evidence suggests that there is unidirectional causality from migration to economic growth.
Keywords
Economic Growth , Production , Employment , External Migration , Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
References
- Ager, P., & Brückner, M. (2013). Cultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration. European Economic Review, 64(C), 76-97.
- Ahmed, M. S. (2010, Junuary-June). Migrant Workers Remittance and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh. ASA University Review, 4(1), 1-13.
- Altunç, Ö. F., Ucan, O., & Akyıldız, A. (2017). Dış göçlerin Türkiye ekonomisinde işsizlik enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri: Ekonometrik bir analiz(1985-2015). Researcher:Social Science Studies, 5(8), 197-212.
- Boubtane, E., Caulibaly, D., & Rault, C. (2013). Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger Causality analysis on OECD countries. Economing Modelling(33), 261-269.
- Bove, V., & Elia, L. (2017). Migration, Diversity and Economic Growth. World Development(89), 227-239.
- Castles, S., & Mark, J. M. (2008). Göçler Çağı: Modern Dünyada Uluslararası Göç Hareketleri. (B. U. Bal, & İ. Akbulut, Çev.) İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi.
- Chen, H.-J., & Fang, I.-H. (2013). Migration, social security, and economic growth. Economic Modelling, 32, 386-389.
- Cooray, A. (2012). The Impact of Migrant Remittances on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia. Review of International Economics, 20(5), 985-998.
- Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Society(75), 427-431.
- Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica(49), 1057-1072.