The Relationship between Worker Remittances and Imports: The Case of Turkey

Year 2021, , 2603 - 2616, 30.09.2021

Ayşe Arı

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.862616

Abstract

Workers escape from higher unemployment and poverty rates in the less developed or developing countries to developed countries with the aim of having a higher income and a better job. Workers sent remittances to their families left behind in their home countries and these remittances provide foreign currency by transferring the income from developed countries to the less developed countries. So, worker remittances improve the economic growth of home county through the saving-investment channel. Worker remittances also effect the home country’s economy and worker’s families through different channels. The first of them is the increase of consumption, education and health expenditures of the worker’s families as a result of remittance inflows. The aggregate demand also increase with the multiplier effect of consumption expenditures. But remittances cause a reduction in production because of the decrease of labor supply due to increase of family’s income. Worker remittances have also impact on inflation, income inequality and exchange rate. Worker remittances also effect the economy through imports. The effect of remittances on imports can be either positive or negative. The direction of the effect will depend on whether the consumption goods or capital goods are imported. Import of goods that can be produced in the national economy lead to a decrease in production. Therefore, the foreign currency obtained from worker remittances can leave the country through imports.
The aim of this study is to search the relationship between worker remittances and imports for Turkey. To this aim, we employed Johansen Cointegration test and Hacker –Hatemi (2006) bootstrap causality test. The results of Johansen cointegration test showed that there is no long run relationship between worker remittances and imports. Therefore, worker remittances and import don’t move together in the long run. In other words, remittances will not be expected to affect imports positively or negatively. The findings of the causality test indicated the existence of a unidirectional causality running from worker remittances to imports.

Keywords

Worker Remittances, Import, Cointegration, Causality, Turkey

İşçi Dövizleri ve İthalat İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

İşsizliğin ve yoksulluğun yüksek olduğu gelişmekte olan ve az gelişmiş ülkelerden daha iyi bir iş ve gelir elde etmek amacıyla işçiler gelişmiş ülkelere göç etmektedir. İşçilerin geride kalan ailelerine gönderdikleri dövizler ise gelirin gelişmiş ülkelerden az gelişmiş ülkelere transferini gerçekleştirerek önemli bir döviz kaynağı oluşturmaktadır. Böylece işçi dövizleri tasarruf-yatırım kanalıyla ülkenin ekonomik büyümesini hızlandırmaktadır. Ayrıca işçi dövizleri, göçmen ailelerini ve ülke ekonomisini çeşitli kanallarla etkilemektedir. Bunlardan ilki, gelen işçi dövizleri ile işçi ailelerinin tüketim, eğitim ve sağlık harcamalarının artmasıdır. Artan tüketim harcaması çarpan etkisiyle toplam talebi artıracaktır. Bununla birlikte işçi dövizleri, ailelerin gelirini artırdığından emek arzını azaltarak üretimin düşmesine de yol açmaktadır. Ayrıca, işçi dövizleri ülkedeki enflasyon, gelir eşitsizliği ve döviz kuru üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. İşçi dövizleri, ithalat vasıtasıyla da ülke ekonomisini etkilemektedir. İşçi dövizlerinin ithalat üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ya da negatif yönde olabilecektir. İşçi dövizlerinin ithalat üzerindeki etkisi tüketim ve sermaye mallarından hangisinin ithal edildiğine bağlı olmaktadır. Ülkede üretilebilecek malların ithal edilmesi ülkedeki üretimin azalmasına yol açacaktır. Bir başka deyişle işçi dövizleri ülkeye döviz girişi sağlarken ithalat vasıtasıyla tekrar ülkeden döviz çıkışına yol açabilmektedir.
Bu çalışmanın amacı işçi dövizleri ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye için araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ile Hacker ve Hatemi (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testine yer verilmiştir. Johansen testi sonucunda işçi dövizleri ve ithalat arasında uzun dönem ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, işçi dövizleri ve ithalat uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmemektedir. Bir başka deyişle işçi dövizlerinin ithalatı pozitif ya da negatif yönde etkilemesi beklenmeyecektir. Hacker ve Hatemi (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi bulguları ise, işçi dövizlerinden ithalata doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

İşçi Dövizleri, İthalat, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Türkiye

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