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Orta Asya’da Çağdaş Rekabet: Fırsatlar ve Zorluklar

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 75 - 94, 30.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/jes.2020.005

Abstract

Özel coğrafi konumu nedeniyle Orta Asya yüzyıllardır güç mücadelelerinin merkezinde olmuştur. Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasının ardından bölge tekrar stratejik değerlendirmelerin odak noktası haline gelmiştir. Her ne kadar bölge zengin enerji kaynaklarına sahip olsa da, genç Orta Asya Cumhuriyetleri yetersiz alt yapıdan insan gücü eksikliğine ve zayıf yönetimlere kadar çeşitli sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Orta Asya Cumhuriyetleri’nin bağımsızlıklarını kazanmalarının ardından uluslararası ortam tek kutupluluktan çok kutupluluğa doğru ilerlerken, beklenmedik değişimler meydana gelmiştir. ABD, Çin, Rusya, AB gibi küresel güçler ile Türkiye, Hindistan, İran ve Pakistan gibi bölgesel güçlerin bölgeye müdahil olması denklemi karmaşıklaştırmıştır. Mevcut çeşitli problemlere rağmen, zengin enerji kaynakları; ortak tarihi, dini, etnik miras; ve ekonomik bağlanırlık projeleri Orta Asya için çok değişik fırsatlar sunmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, çalışmada, Orta Asya’nın jeo-politik/jeo-stratejik ve jeo-ekonomik önemi göz önünde bulundurularak bölgedeki zorluklar ve fırsatlar araştırılmaktadır. Çalışma giriş ve sonuç bölümleri hariç olmak üzere dört ana bölümden oluşmaktadır. Girişten sonraki ikinci bölümde bölgenin jeopolitik, jeostratejik ve jeoekonomik önemi tarihi ve rakamsal verilerle desteklenerek ortaya konulmuştur. Üçüncü bölümde, küresel ve bölgesel oyuncuların çıkarları örtüşen ve ayrışan çıkarları tespit etmek amacı doğrultusunda analiz edilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde bölgenin karşılaştığı zorluklar ve muhtemel fırsatlar belirlenmiştir. Beşinci bölüm çalışmanın bulgularının özetlendiği ve bölgenin geleceği ile ilgili çeşitli öngörülerin yapıldığı bölümdür. Çalışma beş ana tespitin yapıldığı sonuç bölümüyle nihayetlendirilmektedir. Belirlenen beş temel tespit şunlardır: Mevcut zorluklara ragmen bölgede barış ve refahın sağlanması için çok sayıda fırsat bulunmaktadır; Afganistan’da barış sağlanması bölge için hayati önemdedir; Orta Asya devletleri arasındaki işbirliğini kolaylaştıracak çok sayıda faktör bulunmaktadır; Yol ve Kuşak Projesi bölge için oyun değiştirici niteliktedir.

References

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  • KHETRAN, Mir Sherbaz. “Economic Connectivity: Pakistan, China, West Asia and Central Asia.” Strategic Studies 36, no.4 (Winter 2016): 61-76.
  • KORT, Michael. Nations in Transition: Central Asian Republics. New York: Facts On File, Inc, 2004.
  • KOZHOKIN, Evgeny. “Geopolitical Importance of Central Asia: Russian View”, Strategic Analysis 33, no.4 (July 2009): 478-482.
  • MUNIR, Muhammad and SHAFIQ, Muhammad. “Geostrategic Significance of Wakhan Corridor for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan”, Margalla Papers. (2018): 203-215.
  • PILLALAMARRI, Akhilesh. “The United States Just Closed Its Last Base in Central Asia”, The Diplomat, 10 June 2014. https://thediplomat.com/2014/06/the-united-states-just-closed-its-last-base-in-central-asia/.
  • PEIMANI, Hooman. Conflict and Security in Central Asia and the Caucasus. California: ABC-CLIO, LLC, 2009.
  • RAUF, Servet. “Changing Geopolitical Dynamics in Central Asia: Causes and Effects.” Strategic Studies 37, no.4 (Winter 2017): 149-165.
  • SNYDER, Jed C. After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia. Washington, DC: NDU Press, eds 1995.
  • THE ECONOMIST Online Page. “At the periphery: India in Central Asia”, The Economist, 04 January 2019. http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=747505258&Country=India&topic=Politics &subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=International+relations&oid=1437529527&aid=1.
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Contemporary Rivalry in Central Asia: Challenges and Opportunities

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 75 - 94, 30.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/jes.2020.005

Abstract

Due to its unique geographic position, Central Asia has been at the center of power struggles for centuries. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union the region once again became the focal point of strategic assessments. Although the region had been endowed with rich energy resources, young Central Asian Republics (CARs) had faced multiple challenges ranging from poor infrastructure and lack of human resources to weak governance. Since their independence international environment has also undergone unforeseen changes as it moves from unipolarity towards multipolarity. Global powers, such as the USA, China, Russia, the EU; and regional powers such as Turkey, India, Iran, and Pakistan have been involved in the region, adding to the complexity of the equation. Despite numerous problems, Central Asia’s rich energy resources, common historical, religious, ethnic heritage and economic connectivity projects provide variety of opportunities for the region. In this context, with a view on the geopolitic/geo-strategic and geo-economic significance of Central Asia, the study investigates challenges and opportunities for the region. The structure of study has been based on four main chapters. After the introduction, in the second chapter, geo-political, geo-strategic and geoeconomic importance of the region has been explained with supporting historical and numerical data. In the third chapter, interests of global and regional players have been analyzed in order to identify converging and diverging interests of the respective players. The fourth chapter is allocated to describing challenges the region is facing, and exploring opportunities the CARs may have. In the fifth chapter, the findings of study have been summarized, and some projections have been put forward regarding future of the region. The study is finalized with the conclusion section, which identifies the five main outcomes out of the study: the presence of multiple opportunities for peace and prosperity of the region, the importance of Central Asia, the importance of the peace efforts in Afghanistan, the availability of multiple factors for cooperation among CARs, and the significance of BRI for the region.

References

  • ANWAR, Zahid. “Development of Infrastructural Linkages between Pakistan and Central Asia”, A Research Journal of South Asian Studies, 26, no.1 (January-June 2011): 103-115.
  • BEEHNER, Lionel. “U.S. Military Bases in Central Asia”, Council on Foreign Relations, 26 July 2005. https:// www.cfr.org/backgrounder/asia-us-military-bases-central-asia.
  • BRADSHER, Keith. “Chinese Company to Buy Kazakh Oil Interests for $4 Billion”, The New York Times, 22 August 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/22/business/worldbusiness/chinese-company-to-buykazakh-oil-interests-for-4.html.
  • BRZEZINSKI, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard. New York: Basic Books, 1997.
  • BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY, 21 November 2019. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/ bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019full-report.pdf. Encyclopedia Britannica. Heartland, 21 November 2019. https://www.britannica.com/place/heartland.
  • FARCHY, Jack and KYNGE, James. “Map: Connecting central Asia”, Financial Times, 10 May 2016. https:// www.ft.com/content/ee5cf40a-15e5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.
  • GORDEYEVA, Mariyya. “China buys into giant Kazakh oilfield for $5 billion”, Reuters, 07 September 2013. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-kashagan-china/china-buys-into-giant-kazakh-oilfield-for-5-billionidUSBRE98606620130907.
  • HABERTURK HOME PAGE. “Baku-Tiflis-Kars Demiryolu Hattinda İki Yılda 275 Bin Ton Yük Taşındı, HaberTürk, 27 Ekim 2019. https://www.haberturk.com/baku-tiflis-kars-demiryolu-hatti-nda-iki-yilda275-bin-ton-yuk-tasindi-2534819-ekonomi.
  • HUNTINGTON, Samuel P. “The Clash of Civilizations?”, Foreign Affairs 72, no.3 (Summer 1993): 22-49. JHA, Martand. “India’s Connect Central Asia Policy”, The Diplomat, 02 December 2016. https://thediplomat. com/2016/12/indias-connect-central-asia-policy-2/
  • KHETRAN, Mir Sherbaz. “Economic Connectivity: Pakistan, China, West Asia and Central Asia.” Strategic Studies 36, no.4 (Winter 2016): 61-76.
  • KORT, Michael. Nations in Transition: Central Asian Republics. New York: Facts On File, Inc, 2004.
  • KOZHOKIN, Evgeny. “Geopolitical Importance of Central Asia: Russian View”, Strategic Analysis 33, no.4 (July 2009): 478-482.
  • MUNIR, Muhammad and SHAFIQ, Muhammad. “Geostrategic Significance of Wakhan Corridor for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan”, Margalla Papers. (2018): 203-215.
  • PILLALAMARRI, Akhilesh. “The United States Just Closed Its Last Base in Central Asia”, The Diplomat, 10 June 2014. https://thediplomat.com/2014/06/the-united-states-just-closed-its-last-base-in-central-asia/.
  • PEIMANI, Hooman. Conflict and Security in Central Asia and the Caucasus. California: ABC-CLIO, LLC, 2009.
  • RAUF, Servet. “Changing Geopolitical Dynamics in Central Asia: Causes and Effects.” Strategic Studies 37, no.4 (Winter 2017): 149-165.
  • SNYDER, Jed C. After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia. Washington, DC: NDU Press, eds 1995.
  • THE ECONOMIST Online Page. “At the periphery: India in Central Asia”, The Economist, 04 January 2019. http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=747505258&Country=India&topic=Politics &subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=International+relations&oid=1437529527&aid=1.
  • US DEPARTMENT OF STATE Web Page. C5+1 Fact Sheet, 22 September 2017. https://www.state.gov/ c51-fact-sheet/.
There are 19 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Political Science, Sociology, International Relations, History of The Social Sciences
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Adem Çakır This is me 0000-0002-8099-8880

Publication Date March 30, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 9 Issue: 1

Cite

Chicago Çakır, Adem. “Contemporary Rivalry in Central Asia: Challenges and Opportunities”. Avrasya İncelemeleri Dergisi 9, no. 1 (March 2020): 75-94. https://doi.org/10.26650/jes.2020.005.