ERKEN UYARI SİSTEMLERİ YOLUYLA TÜRKİYE’DEKİ EKONOMİK KRİZLERİN ANALİZİ

Year 2005, Issue: 2, 39 - 62, 26.08.2011

Prof.dr. Cevat Gerni Doç.dr. Ö. Selçuk Emsen Yrd.doç.dr. M. Kemal Değer

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde finansal liberalizasyon süreci ile ortaya çıkan faiz oranı-döviz kuru
ilişkisinin kırılgan bir yapı oluşturduğu ve bu durumun ülkenin risk priminin yükselmesiyle
birlikte ekonomik krizleri tetiklediği gözlenmiştir. Bu çerçevede ekonomide faiz oranı-döviz
kuru makasının yarattığı suni refah artışlarının ortaya çıkardığı krizler ve yüksek faiz
oranıyla birlikte suni biçimde değerlenen ulusal paranın sürdürülemezliği dikkat
çekmektedir.

Keywords

Ekonomik krizler, Para-ödemeler bilançosu krizleri, Finansal-bankacılık krizleri, Erken uyarı sistemleri, Döviz kuru baskı indeksi, Türkiye ekonomisi, Logit model, Probit model

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