A SMALL SCALED BUSINESS-CYCLE ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY: SOME COUNTER-CYCLICAL EVIDENCE USING NEW INCOME SERIES

Year 2010, Volume: 60 Issue: 1, 71 - 96, 31.01.2011

Levent Korap

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için küçük ölçekli bir iş-çevrimi çözümlemesi gerçekleştirilmeye çalışılmaktadır. Bu amaçla 1998: 100 temelli yeni gelir serisi verisini dikkate alan reel gelir ve fiyatlar/enflasyon arasındaki çevrimsel bağıntıların bilgisi açığa çıkartılmaya çalışılmakta ve sonra bu büyüklüklerin öncü- veya ters-çevrimsel tanımlayıcı özellikleri incelenmektedir. Tahmin bulgularımız hem deflatör temelli fiyat düzeyinin hem de enflasyonun arz-çekişli iş-çevrimi modellerinin öngörülerini destekleyecek şekilde reel çıktı ile ters-çevrimsel bir ilişkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Fiyat düzeyi/enflasyon ve reel gelirin çevrimsel bileşenleri arasındaki ilişkilerin yönünü inceleyebilmek için ayrıca genelleştirilmiş etki tepki çözümlemesine başvurulmuştur. Sonuçlar reel çıktı ve fiyat düzeyi/enflasyon arasında veri tutarlı güçlü negatif bir etkileşimin bulunduğunu onaylamaktadır. Bütün bu bulgular dikkate alınarak, duruma-bağlı takep-çekişli Keynesgil politikalara Türkiye ekonomisi tarafından tanıklık edilen iş çevrimlerinin etkilerinin istikrar amaçlı olarak denetlenebilmesi için bir günenilirlik bileşeni atfedilmemesi gerektiği ve çıktı ile fiyatlar arasında negatif bir etkileşime yol açacak arz şoklarına olanak sağlayan politikalara, daha ziyade, iktisadi birimler ve politika yapıcılar tarafından önem verilmesi gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

Enflasyon, Çıktı, İş Çevrimleri, Filtreleme/Ayrıştırma, Ters-Çevrimsel Fiyatlar/Enflasyon, Genelleştirilmiş Etki Tepki Çözümlemesi, Türkiye Ekonomisi

A SMALL SCALED BUSINESS-CYCLE ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY: SOME COUNTER-CYCLICAL EVIDENCE USING NEW INCOME SERIES

Abstract

In this paper, a small scaled business cycle analysis is tried to be conducted
for the Turkish economy. For this purpose we try to extract the knowledge of
cyclical correlations between real income and prices/inflation considering 1998:
100 based new income series data and then examine pro- or counter-cyclical characteristics of these aggregates. Our estimation results indicate that both
deflator based price level and inflation have a counter-cyclical relationship with
real output in a way supporting what the supply-driven business cycle models
bring out. To further examine the direction of the relationship between the
cyclical components of price level/inflation and real income, we apply to the
generalized impulse response analysis. The results verify that there exists a data
consistent strong negative interaction between real output and price
level/inflation. Considering all these findings, we conclude that no credibility
must be attributed to the discretionary demand-driven Keynesian policies to
stabilize the effects of the business cycles witnessed by the Turkish economy and
that the policies permitting to supply shocks which will lead to a negative
interaction between output and prices, rather, must have been of a special
importance in the eyes of economic agents and policy makers.

Keywords

Inflation, Output, Business Cycles, Filtering/Decomposing, Counter-Cyclical Prices/Inflation, Generalized Impulse Response Analysis, Turkish Economy

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