ÜÇÜNCÜ NESİL KRİZ TEORİLERİ VE 1997/8 ASYA KRİZİ

Year 2010, Volume: 60 Issue: 2, 23 - 81, 09.06.2011

Cengiz Samur

Abstract

Kriz teorileri bakımından 1997/8 Asya krizi fenomeni bir dönüm
noktasıdır. Asya krizi hem gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde 1929 krizinden
bu yana tecrübe edilen en büyük kriz vakası ve hem de geleneksel kriz
teorilerince izah edilememektedir. Krizin vuku bulacağını arafesi yılda bile
kimse tahmin etmemiştir. Bu karakterleri sebebiyle Asya krizi kriz
literatüründe yeni perspektiflere ihtiyacı kuvvetlendirmiş ve bu yönde
arayışları tetiklemiştir. Üçüncü nesil kriz teorileri sözkonusu yeni yaklaşım
ihtiyaç ve arayışlarının ürünü olup kısaca Asya krizi akabinde ortaya çıkıp kuvvetlenen ve bu fenomeni izah etmeyi
hedefleyen teoriler olarak ifade edilebilir. Makalemizde üçüncü nesil
kriz teorileri üzerine odaklanılmaktadır. Birinci kısımda genel olarak üçüncü
nesil kriz teorilerinin çerçevesi üzerinde durulmuştur. İkinci kısımda 1997/8
Asya krizini 1. ve 2. nesil kriz teorilerinin niçin açıklayamamakta olduğu ele
alınmıştır. Üçüncü kısımda üçüncü nesil kriz teorileri tasnif edilmesine
çalışılmıştır. Dördüncü kısımda üçüncü nesil kriz teorilerinin ortak temel
özelliklerine yer verilmiştir. Beşinci kısım ise ulaşılan bazı sonuçları
içermektedir.

Keywords

Bankacılık paniği, Uluslararası illikidite, Üçüncü nesil kriz teorileri, Blanço kötüleşmesi, Ahlakî tehlike, Finansal kriz, Finansal kırılganlık, 1

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