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BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ

Year 2010, Volume: 60 Issue: 2, 83 - 133, 09.06.2011

Abstract

SS krizi net uluslar arası
sermaye girişinde ve eşanlı olarak cari açıkta ani, şiddetli bir düşme meydana
gelmesi, bunun da reel sektörde hammadde, enerji, aramal, sermaye malları
tedariki açısından ithalata bağımlılığı yüksek endüstrilerde arz (üretim)
şokları doğurarak ciddi bir ekonomik daralmaya götürmesidir. SS krizinin vuku
bulmasında kilit rolü “uluslar arası sermaye hareketleri” oynamaktadır. Bu kriz
türü hem önemli miktarda uluslar arası sermaye çeken hem de hammadde, enerji,
sermaye malları tedarikinde reel sektörünün ithalata bağımlılığı kuvvetli olan
ülkelerde meydana gelebilir. SS krizleri çoğunlukla bir para veya bankacılık
krizi eşliğinde tecrübe edilmektedir. Bu kriz türünü kavramak bakımından SS
fenomeni ile SS krizi kavramının farklı olduklarına dikkat edilmelidir. SS
fenomeni uluslar arası sermaye girişinde ve cari açıkta eşanlı olarak şiddetli
daralma meydana gelmesidir. SS krizi ise sözkonusu fenomenin ithalat
darboğazları üzerinden arz (üretim) şokları doğurup büyük bir ekonomik
daralmaya yol açarak bir krize dönüşmesidir. SS krizlerinin anahtar unsurları;
uluslararası sermaye girişinde ve eşanlı olarak cari açıkta şiddetli düşme,
reel sektörde arz (üretim) şoku ve büyük bir ekonomik daralma, aktif piyasası
fiyat çöküşü, reel döviz kurunda çöküş, ticaret dışı mal fiyatlarının ticarete
konu mal fiyatlarına oranında sert düşüş şeklinde sıralanabilir. Çalışmamızda
1980 sonrası Türkiye ekonomisinde SS kriz tecrübeleri üzerine odaklanılmıştır.
Sırasıyla genel olarak SS krizi, SS krizinin anahtar unsurları, SS krizinin
amprik olarak tanımlanması, Türkiye ekonomisinde SS krizi tecrübeleri, SS krizi
mahiyetinde olmayan bazı kriz tecrübeleri, SS fenomeni içermeyen bir finansal
istikrarsızlık tecrübesi ele alınmıştır. Sonuç kısmında ulaşılan bazı amprik
sonuçlara yer verilmiştir. Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde müşahede edilen kimi SS
krizi tecrübelerine dair grafikler Ek'e konulmuştur. Ülkemizde 1980 sonrasında
tecrübe edilen 1994, 2001 vakaları amprik olarak SS krizi şeklinde
tanımlanmıştır. 1994 krizi bir para krizi olmakla beraber aynı zamanda SS krizi
mahiyetindedir. 2001 krizi bir ikiz para ve bankacılık krizi tecrübesi olmakla
beraber aynı zamanda SS krizi mahiyetindedir. 1988, 1991 para krizleri SS
fenomenini içermemektedirler, dolayısıyla SS krizi mahiyetinde değildirler.
1984 finansal istikrarsızlık vakası hem krize dönüşmemiştir, hem de SS fenomeni
içermemektedir.

References

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  • Bordo, Michael D. and Schwartz, A. J. (2000), “Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared with and without Bailouts”, NBER, Wp no. 7701,
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (1998), “Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: the Simple Economics of Sudden Stops”, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. I, No: 1, (Nov. 1998), s. 35-54,
  • ________________ (2005), “Crises in Emerging Market Economies: a Global Perspective”, NBER, Wp no. 1305,
  • Calvo, Guillermo A., and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999), “When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options”, www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/faculty/reinhart/imfbook.pdf, (erişim: 2008),
  • Catão, Luis A. V. (2006), “Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: a Historical Look”, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/133,
  • Chang, Roberto and Velasco, Andres (1998a), “Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime”, NBER, Wp no. 6469,
  • _______________ (1998b), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: a Canonical Model”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Working Paper 98-10,
  • ________________(1998c), “the Asian Liquidity Crisis”, NBER, Wp no. 6796,
  • ________________(1999), “Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets Theory and Policy”, NBER, Wp no. 7272,
  • Dooley, Michael P., and Verma, Sujata (2001), “Rescue Packages and Output Losses Following Crises”, NBER, Wp no. 8315,
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1997), "The Mexian peso Crisis: How Much did We Know? When did We Know It?", NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 6334,
  • _______________(2004), “Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals”, NBER, Wp no. 10277, Ertürk, Emin (1994), “Döviz Ekonomisi”, Der Yay., İst.,
  • ______________ (1991), “Türkiye İktisadında Yeni Bir Boyut: Para İkamesi”, Uludağ Yay., Bursa,
  • Fischer, Irwing (1933), “the Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”, Econometrica, vol. 1. pp. 337-57,
  • Gertler, M (1988a), Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 20, Part 2: 269-88,
  • ______________ (1988b), Financial Capacity, Reliquification, and Production in an Economy with Long-Term Financial Arrangements, University of Wisconsin, mimeo,
  • Glick, Reuven, and Hutchison, Michael (1999), “Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?”, Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper No. PB99-07,
  • Goldstein, M. (1998), "Presumptive Indicators Early Warning Signals of Vulnerability to Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies", mimeo, Institute for International Economics,
  • ______________ (1998), "The Asian Financial Crisis", Institute for International Economics, mimeo, Washington, D.C., Hutchison, Michael, and
  • Neuberger, Ilan (2002), “How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises”, Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies Economic Research Deparment Federal Reserve Banks of San Fransisco, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series No. PB02-02,
  • Hutchison, Michael, and Noy, Ilan (2004), “Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets”, Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Paper 0413,
  • Kaminsky, G.L., and C.M. Reinhart (1996, 1999), "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems", Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, mimeo, February, home.gwu.edu/~graciela/HOME-PAGE/RESEARCH-WORK/WORKINGPAPERS/twin-crises.pdf,
  • www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1996/544/ifdp544.pdf, (erişim:2006), _______________ (2003) “Varieties of Currency Crises”, NBER, Working Paper no. 10193,
  • Krugman, Paul (1979), “a Model of Balance of Payments Crises”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11, 3 (August 1979), pp. 311-325,
  • _________________(1998b), “What Happened to Asia”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/ DISINTER.html, (erişim: 2006)
  • _________________(1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/FLOOD.pdf, (erişim: 2006) _________________(2000), “Crises: the Price of Globalization”, www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/SYMPOS/2000/krugman.pdf, (erişim: 2006), ________________ (2001), “Crises: the Next Generation?”, http://sapir.tau.ac.il/papers/ sapir_conferences/Krugman.pdf, (erişim: 2006) ________________ (tarihsiz) , “Currency Crises”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/crises.html, (erişim: 2006),
  • Mendoza, Enrique G. (2001), “Credit, Price, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stops”, NBER, Wp no. 8338,
  • ______________ (2006a), “Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops”, NBER, Wp no. 11966,
  • 2006b), “Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraint: a Fischerian Debt Deflation of Tobin‟s Q”, NBER, Wp no. 12564,
  • Mendoza, Enrique G., and Smith, Katherine A. (2002), “Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: the Financial Mechanics of the „Sudden Stop‟ Phenomenon”, NBER, Wp no. 9286,
  • Reinhart, Carmen M. (2002), “Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings”, NBER, Working Paper No. 8738, Rojas-Suarz, Liliana, and
  • Weisbrod, Steven R. (1994), "Financial Market Fragilities in Latin America: From Banking Crisis Resollution to Current Policy Challanges", IMF Working Paper WP/94/117, October,
  • Sachs, Jeffrey D. (1997), "The Wrong Medicine for Asia", IMF, the New York Times, 3 November 1997,
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB), Key Indicators 2006, www.adb.org/statistics, (erişim: 2007)
  • DPT, Temel Makroekonomik Büyüklüklerdeki Gelişmeler (1959-2006), www.dpt.gov.tr/Portal.aspx?PortalRef=3, (erişim: 2007),
  • _______________ , Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler (1950-2006),
  • www.dpt.gov.tr/PortalDesign/PortalControls/WebIcerikGosterim.aspx?IcerikRef=1678& WorkArea=ctl38, (erişim: 2007),
  • HM (2004), Hazine İstatistikleri (1980-2003), Aylık Ekonomik Göstergeler, Hazine Müsteşarlığı Ekonomik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara, http://www.treasury.gov.tr/ yayin/hazineistatistikleri/, (erişim: 2007),
  • _______________ (2007), Aylık Ekonomik Göstergeler, Hazine Müsteşarlığı Ekonomik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara,
  • IMF (2007), WEO database, http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28, (erişim: 2007),
  • ________________(2007), BOP‟s statistics, www.imfstatistics.org/bop/, (CD-ROOM),
  • ________________(2007), IFS, www.imfstatistics.org/imf, (erişim: 2007),
  • _______________ (1998), World Economic Outlook (WEO) (May 1998), http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/index.htm, (erişim: 2007),
  • MB (2008), EVDS, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, (erişim: 2008),
  • TÜİK (2007), İstatistik Göstergeler (1923-2006),. www.tuik.gov.tr, (erişim: 2008).
Year 2010, Volume: 60 Issue: 2, 83 - 133, 09.06.2011

Abstract

References

  • Bordo, Michaeld D. (2006), “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?”, NBER, Wp no. 12393,
  • Bordo, Michael D. and Schwartz, A. J. (2000), “Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared with and without Bailouts”, NBER, Wp no. 7701,
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (1998), “Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: the Simple Economics of Sudden Stops”, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. I, No: 1, (Nov. 1998), s. 35-54,
  • ________________ (2005), “Crises in Emerging Market Economies: a Global Perspective”, NBER, Wp no. 1305,
  • Calvo, Guillermo A., and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999), “When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options”, www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/faculty/reinhart/imfbook.pdf, (erişim: 2008),
  • Catão, Luis A. V. (2006), “Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: a Historical Look”, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/133,
  • Chang, Roberto and Velasco, Andres (1998a), “Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime”, NBER, Wp no. 6469,
  • _______________ (1998b), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: a Canonical Model”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Working Paper 98-10,
  • ________________(1998c), “the Asian Liquidity Crisis”, NBER, Wp no. 6796,
  • ________________(1999), “Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets Theory and Policy”, NBER, Wp no. 7272,
  • Dooley, Michael P., and Verma, Sujata (2001), “Rescue Packages and Output Losses Following Crises”, NBER, Wp no. 8315,
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1997), "The Mexian peso Crisis: How Much did We Know? When did We Know It?", NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 6334,
  • _______________(2004), “Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals”, NBER, Wp no. 10277, Ertürk, Emin (1994), “Döviz Ekonomisi”, Der Yay., İst.,
  • ______________ (1991), “Türkiye İktisadında Yeni Bir Boyut: Para İkamesi”, Uludağ Yay., Bursa,
  • Fischer, Irwing (1933), “the Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”, Econometrica, vol. 1. pp. 337-57,
  • Gertler, M (1988a), Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 20, Part 2: 269-88,
  • ______________ (1988b), Financial Capacity, Reliquification, and Production in an Economy with Long-Term Financial Arrangements, University of Wisconsin, mimeo,
  • Glick, Reuven, and Hutchison, Michael (1999), “Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?”, Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper No. PB99-07,
  • Goldstein, M. (1998), "Presumptive Indicators Early Warning Signals of Vulnerability to Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies", mimeo, Institute for International Economics,
  • ______________ (1998), "The Asian Financial Crisis", Institute for International Economics, mimeo, Washington, D.C., Hutchison, Michael, and
  • Neuberger, Ilan (2002), “How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises”, Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies Economic Research Deparment Federal Reserve Banks of San Fransisco, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series No. PB02-02,
  • Hutchison, Michael, and Noy, Ilan (2004), “Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets”, Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Paper 0413,
  • Kaminsky, G.L., and C.M. Reinhart (1996, 1999), "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems", Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, mimeo, February, home.gwu.edu/~graciela/HOME-PAGE/RESEARCH-WORK/WORKINGPAPERS/twin-crises.pdf,
  • www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1996/544/ifdp544.pdf, (erişim:2006), _______________ (2003) “Varieties of Currency Crises”, NBER, Working Paper no. 10193,
  • Krugman, Paul (1979), “a Model of Balance of Payments Crises”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11, 3 (August 1979), pp. 311-325,
  • _________________(1998b), “What Happened to Asia”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/ DISINTER.html, (erişim: 2006)
  • _________________(1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/FLOOD.pdf, (erişim: 2006) _________________(2000), “Crises: the Price of Globalization”, www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/SYMPOS/2000/krugman.pdf, (erişim: 2006), ________________ (2001), “Crises: the Next Generation?”, http://sapir.tau.ac.il/papers/ sapir_conferences/Krugman.pdf, (erişim: 2006) ________________ (tarihsiz) , “Currency Crises”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/crises.html, (erişim: 2006),
  • Mendoza, Enrique G. (2001), “Credit, Price, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stops”, NBER, Wp no. 8338,
  • ______________ (2006a), “Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops”, NBER, Wp no. 11966,
  • 2006b), “Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraint: a Fischerian Debt Deflation of Tobin‟s Q”, NBER, Wp no. 12564,
  • Mendoza, Enrique G., and Smith, Katherine A. (2002), “Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: the Financial Mechanics of the „Sudden Stop‟ Phenomenon”, NBER, Wp no. 9286,
  • Reinhart, Carmen M. (2002), “Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings”, NBER, Working Paper No. 8738, Rojas-Suarz, Liliana, and
  • Weisbrod, Steven R. (1994), "Financial Market Fragilities in Latin America: From Banking Crisis Resollution to Current Policy Challanges", IMF Working Paper WP/94/117, October,
  • Sachs, Jeffrey D. (1997), "The Wrong Medicine for Asia", IMF, the New York Times, 3 November 1997,
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB), Key Indicators 2006, www.adb.org/statistics, (erişim: 2007)
  • DPT, Temel Makroekonomik Büyüklüklerdeki Gelişmeler (1959-2006), www.dpt.gov.tr/Portal.aspx?PortalRef=3, (erişim: 2007),
  • _______________ , Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler (1950-2006),
  • www.dpt.gov.tr/PortalDesign/PortalControls/WebIcerikGosterim.aspx?IcerikRef=1678& WorkArea=ctl38, (erişim: 2007),
  • HM (2004), Hazine İstatistikleri (1980-2003), Aylık Ekonomik Göstergeler, Hazine Müsteşarlığı Ekonomik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara, http://www.treasury.gov.tr/ yayin/hazineistatistikleri/, (erişim: 2007),
  • _______________ (2007), Aylık Ekonomik Göstergeler, Hazine Müsteşarlığı Ekonomik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara,
  • IMF (2007), WEO database, http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28, (erişim: 2007),
  • ________________(2007), BOP‟s statistics, www.imfstatistics.org/bop/, (CD-ROOM),
  • ________________(2007), IFS, www.imfstatistics.org/imf, (erişim: 2007),
  • _______________ (1998), World Economic Outlook (WEO) (May 1998), http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/index.htm, (erişim: 2007),
  • MB (2008), EVDS, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, (erişim: 2008),
  • TÜİK (2007), İstatistik Göstergeler (1923-2006),. www.tuik.gov.tr, (erişim: 2008).
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Cengiz Samur

Publication Date June 9, 2011
Published in Issue Year 2010 Volume: 60 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Samur, C. (2011). BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 60(2), 83-133.
AMA Samur C. BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. June 2011;60(2):83-133.
Chicago Samur, Cengiz. “BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ”. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 60, no. 2 (June 2011): 83-133.
EndNote Samur C (June 1, 2011) BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 60 2 83–133.
IEEE C. Samur, “BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 83–133, 2011.
ISNAD Samur, Cengiz. “BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ”. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 60/2 (June 2011), 83-133.
JAMA Samur C. BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. 2011;60:83–133.
MLA Samur, Cengiz. “BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ”. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, vol. 60, no. 2, 2011, pp. 83-133.
Vancouver Samur C. BİR FİNANSAL KRİZ TÜRÜ OLARAK SS KRİZİ VE 1980 SONRASINDA SS KRİZİ TECRÜBELERİ. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. 2011;60(2):83-133.