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PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME

Year 2012, Volume: 62 Issue: 2, 99 - 151, 06.09.2013

Abstract

Orijinal olarak, A.W.H. Phillips tarafından, 1958 yılında yapılan ampirik
bir çalışmanın ürünü olan Phillips eğrisi’nin gösterdiği enflasyon-işsizlik
değiş-tokuşu (trade-off), iktisadın en temel ilkeleri arasında kabul edilmektedir.
Günümüzde, iktisatçılar arasında, enflasyon ve işsizlik arasında
uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin bulunmadığı; fakat kısa dönemli bir ilişkinin var
olduğu konusunda geniş bir uzlaşma mevcuttur. Enflasyon ve işsizlik arasında
kısa-dönemli bir değiş-tokuşun varlığı kabul edilmedikçe, iş çevrimlerini ve
özellikle, para politikasının kısa-dönemli etkilerini anlayabilmek olanaklı
değildir. Çünkü enflasyon-işsizlik değiş-tokuşu, özünde, para politikasının
etkilerine ilişkin bir açıklamadır; para politikasındaki değişikliklerin, bu
iki değişkeni zıt yönlere ittiğine dair bir iddiadır. Böyle bir değiş-tokuşun
varlığı ve sadece kısa-dönemde geçerli olduğu, çok uzun bir geleneğe
dayanmaktadır. David Hume, 1752 yılında yazdığı “Of Money” başlıklı
makalesinde, parasal bir genişlemenin önce üretim ve istihdamı, daha
sonra da fiyat düzeyini artırdığını yazmaktadır. Böylece, enflasyon-işsizlik
arasındaki ilişkinin, iş çevrimi teorisinin temel bir unsuru olduğu gerçeği
yüzyıllar önce anlaşılmıştır. Günümüzde, Hume’un haklılığı konusunda
geniş bir uzlaşma mevcuttur: Para politikası, hem enflasyon gibi nominal
değişkenleri hem de işsizlik gibi reel değişkenleri etkilemektedir; yani kısa
dönemde para yansız (neutral) değildir. Diğer taraftan, henüz iktisatçılar,
bu ilişkiyi açıklayan tatmin edici bir teori üretemediği için söz konusu
değiş-tokuş “gizem” ini korumaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Phillips eğrisi ile
enflasyon-işsizlik değiş-tokuşunu açıklayan teoriler ele alınmaktadır. Bu
amaçla, Phillips eğrisi, enflasyon-işsizlik değiş-tokuşu ve doğal oran hipotezi
konusundaki temel makaleler ve oluşturulan modeller analiz edilmektedir. Bu
bağlamda, orijinal Phillips eğrisi; Friedman ve Phelps’in adaptif beklentiler
ilave edilmiş Phillips eğrisi modelleri; Lucas’ın, rasyonel beklentiler ilave
edilmiş, eksik bilgi varsayımına dayanan modelleri ile yeni Keynesyenlerin,
nominal rijitliklere dayanan yaklaşımları incelenmektedir

References

  • Akerlof, George A. ve Janet L. Yellen (1985) : “A Near-Rational Mo- del of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, Supplement, s. 823-838.
  • Ball, Laurence ve N.Gregory Mankiw (2002) : “The NAIRU in Theory and Practice”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16, No : 4, Au- tumn, s. 115-136.
  • Ball, Laurence, N.Gregory Mankiw ve David Romer (1988) : “The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-Off ”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 19, No: 1, s. 1-65.
  • Ball, Laurence ve David Romer (1990) : “Real Rigidities and the Nonne- utrality of Money”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 57, April, s. 183-203.
  • Blanchard, Olivier Jean ve Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (1987) : “Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand”, American Economic Review, Vol. 77, September, s. 647-666.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H. (1987) : “Hysteresis in Unemploy- ment” in New Keynesian Economics , Vol. 2, Ed. by G. Mankiw ve D. Romer, Cambridge, MIT Press, 1991, s. 235-247.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H. (1988) : “Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No: 2, May, s. 182-187.
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (1983). “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, September, s. 383-98.
  • Caplin, Andrew S. ve Daniel F. Spulber (1987) : “Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 102, No: 4, November, s. 703-726.
  • Fischer, Stanley (1977) : “Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No : 1, February, s. 191-205.
  • Friedman, M. (1968) : “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Eco- nomic Review, Vol.58, No: 1, March, s. 1-17.
  • Friedman, M. (1977) : “Nobel Lecture : Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No : 3, June, s. 451-472.
  • Galbraith, J. (1997) : “Time to Ditch the NAIRU”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No : 1, Winter, s. 93-108.
  • Gordon, R.J. (1990) : “What is New-Keynesian Economics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28, September, s. 1115-1171.
  • Hargreaves-Heap, S.P. (1992) : The New Keynesian Economics : Time, Belief and Social Interdependence, Aldershot, Edward Elgar.
  • Hume, David (1752) : “Of Money”, http://www.csus.edu/indiv/c/ chalmersk/ECON%20101/HumeOfMoney.pdf
  • Keynes, J.M. (1936) : The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London, Macmillan.
  • Leeson, R. (1994) : “A. W. H. Phillips, Inflationary Expectations and the Operating Characteristics of the Macroeconomy”, Economic Journal, November, s. 1420-1421.
  • Leeson, R. (1997a) : “The Trade-off Interpretation of Phillips’s Dynamic Stabilisation Exercise”, Economica, 64, February, s. 155-171.
  • Leeson, R. (1997b) : “The Political Economy of the Inflation–Unemploy- ment Trade-off ”, History of Political Economy 29:1, Spring, s. 117-156.
  • Lipsey, R.G. (1960) : “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957 : A Further Analysis”, Economica, Vol. 27, No : 105, February, s. 1-31.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972a) : “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No : 2, April, s. 103-124.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972b) : “Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, in The New Classical Macroeconomics (1992), Vol. I, Ed. by K.D. Hoover, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, s. 123-132.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1973) : “Some International Evidence on Output-Infla- tion Tradeoffs”, American Economic Review, Vol. LXIII, No : 3, June, s. 326-334.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1976) : “Econometric Policy Evaluation : A Critique”, in The New Classical Macroeconomics (1992), Vol. II, Ed. by K.D. Hoover, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, s. 3-30.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr (1996) : “Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 104, No : 4, August, s. 661-682.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. ve Rapping L.A. (1969) : “Real Wages, Employment and Inflation”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, No : 5, October, s. 721-754.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. ve Sargent, T.J. (1979) : “After Keynesian Economics”, in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (1981), Ed. by R.E. Lucas ve T.J. Sargent, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, s. 295-319.
  • Mankiw, N. Gregory (1985) : “Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles : A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, May, s. 529-539.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (1990) : “A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28, December, s. 1645-1660.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (2001) : “The Inexorable and Mysterious Trade-off Bet- ween Inflation and Unemployment”, Economic Journal, Vol. 111, No : 471, May, s. 45-61.
  • Modigliani, F. ve Papademos, L.D. (1975) : “Targets for Monetary Policy”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1975, No : 1, s. 141-165.
  • Muth, J. F. (1961) : “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Mo- vements”, Econometrica, Vol. 29, No : 3, July, s. 315-335.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1967) : “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time”, Economica, Vol. 34, No : 3, August, s. 254-281.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1972) : Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory: The Cost-Benefit Approach to Monetary Planning, New York, W.W. Norton.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1979) : “The ‘Natural Rate’ Controversy and Economic Theory” in Studies in Macroeconomic Theory : Employment and Inf- lation, Vol. 1, New York, Academic Press, s. 97-107.
  • Phelps, E.S. ve Taylor, J.B. (1977) : “Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy Under Rational Expectations”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No:1, February, s. 163-190.
  • Phillips, A.W. (1958) : “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, Economica, Vol. 25, No : 2, November, s. 283-299.
  • Rotemberg, Julio (1982). “Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output”, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 44, s. 517-31.
  • Samuelson, P.A. ve Solow, R.M. (1960) : “Analytical Aspects of Anti- Inflation Policy”, American Economic Review, Vol. 50, No : 2, May, s. 177-194.
  • Santomero, A.M. ve Seater, J.J. (1978), “The Inflation–Unemployment Trade-Off: A Critique of the Literature”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XVI. June, s. 499-544.
  • Snowdon, B. ve Vane, H.R. (2005) : Modern Macroeconomics, Its Origins, Development and Current State, Edward Elgar.
  • Taylor, John B. (1979) : “Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model”, American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No: 2, May, s. 108-113.
  • Taylor, John B. (1980). ‘Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts’, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 88, s. 1-22.
  • Tobin, J. (1972), “Inflation and Unemployment”, American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No:1, March, s.1-18.
  • Tobin, J. (1980) : “Stabilisation Policy Ten Years After”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1980, No : 1, s. 19-89.
Year 2012, Volume: 62 Issue: 2, 99 - 151, 06.09.2013

Abstract

References

  • Akerlof, George A. ve Janet L. Yellen (1985) : “A Near-Rational Mo- del of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, Supplement, s. 823-838.
  • Ball, Laurence ve N.Gregory Mankiw (2002) : “The NAIRU in Theory and Practice”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16, No : 4, Au- tumn, s. 115-136.
  • Ball, Laurence, N.Gregory Mankiw ve David Romer (1988) : “The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-Off ”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 19, No: 1, s. 1-65.
  • Ball, Laurence ve David Romer (1990) : “Real Rigidities and the Nonne- utrality of Money”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 57, April, s. 183-203.
  • Blanchard, Olivier Jean ve Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (1987) : “Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand”, American Economic Review, Vol. 77, September, s. 647-666.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H. (1987) : “Hysteresis in Unemploy- ment” in New Keynesian Economics , Vol. 2, Ed. by G. Mankiw ve D. Romer, Cambridge, MIT Press, 1991, s. 235-247.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H. (1988) : “Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No: 2, May, s. 182-187.
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (1983). “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, September, s. 383-98.
  • Caplin, Andrew S. ve Daniel F. Spulber (1987) : “Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 102, No: 4, November, s. 703-726.
  • Fischer, Stanley (1977) : “Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No : 1, February, s. 191-205.
  • Friedman, M. (1968) : “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Eco- nomic Review, Vol.58, No: 1, March, s. 1-17.
  • Friedman, M. (1977) : “Nobel Lecture : Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No : 3, June, s. 451-472.
  • Galbraith, J. (1997) : “Time to Ditch the NAIRU”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No : 1, Winter, s. 93-108.
  • Gordon, R.J. (1990) : “What is New-Keynesian Economics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28, September, s. 1115-1171.
  • Hargreaves-Heap, S.P. (1992) : The New Keynesian Economics : Time, Belief and Social Interdependence, Aldershot, Edward Elgar.
  • Hume, David (1752) : “Of Money”, http://www.csus.edu/indiv/c/ chalmersk/ECON%20101/HumeOfMoney.pdf
  • Keynes, J.M. (1936) : The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London, Macmillan.
  • Leeson, R. (1994) : “A. W. H. Phillips, Inflationary Expectations and the Operating Characteristics of the Macroeconomy”, Economic Journal, November, s. 1420-1421.
  • Leeson, R. (1997a) : “The Trade-off Interpretation of Phillips’s Dynamic Stabilisation Exercise”, Economica, 64, February, s. 155-171.
  • Leeson, R. (1997b) : “The Political Economy of the Inflation–Unemploy- ment Trade-off ”, History of Political Economy 29:1, Spring, s. 117-156.
  • Lipsey, R.G. (1960) : “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957 : A Further Analysis”, Economica, Vol. 27, No : 105, February, s. 1-31.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972a) : “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No : 2, April, s. 103-124.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972b) : “Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, in The New Classical Macroeconomics (1992), Vol. I, Ed. by K.D. Hoover, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, s. 123-132.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1973) : “Some International Evidence on Output-Infla- tion Tradeoffs”, American Economic Review, Vol. LXIII, No : 3, June, s. 326-334.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1976) : “Econometric Policy Evaluation : A Critique”, in The New Classical Macroeconomics (1992), Vol. II, Ed. by K.D. Hoover, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, s. 3-30.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr (1996) : “Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 104, No : 4, August, s. 661-682.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. ve Rapping L.A. (1969) : “Real Wages, Employment and Inflation”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, No : 5, October, s. 721-754.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. ve Sargent, T.J. (1979) : “After Keynesian Economics”, in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (1981), Ed. by R.E. Lucas ve T.J. Sargent, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, s. 295-319.
  • Mankiw, N. Gregory (1985) : “Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles : A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, May, s. 529-539.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (1990) : “A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28, December, s. 1645-1660.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (2001) : “The Inexorable and Mysterious Trade-off Bet- ween Inflation and Unemployment”, Economic Journal, Vol. 111, No : 471, May, s. 45-61.
  • Modigliani, F. ve Papademos, L.D. (1975) : “Targets for Monetary Policy”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1975, No : 1, s. 141-165.
  • Muth, J. F. (1961) : “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Mo- vements”, Econometrica, Vol. 29, No : 3, July, s. 315-335.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1967) : “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time”, Economica, Vol. 34, No : 3, August, s. 254-281.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1972) : Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory: The Cost-Benefit Approach to Monetary Planning, New York, W.W. Norton.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1979) : “The ‘Natural Rate’ Controversy and Economic Theory” in Studies in Macroeconomic Theory : Employment and Inf- lation, Vol. 1, New York, Academic Press, s. 97-107.
  • Phelps, E.S. ve Taylor, J.B. (1977) : “Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy Under Rational Expectations”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No:1, February, s. 163-190.
  • Phillips, A.W. (1958) : “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, Economica, Vol. 25, No : 2, November, s. 283-299.
  • Rotemberg, Julio (1982). “Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output”, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 44, s. 517-31.
  • Samuelson, P.A. ve Solow, R.M. (1960) : “Analytical Aspects of Anti- Inflation Policy”, American Economic Review, Vol. 50, No : 2, May, s. 177-194.
  • Santomero, A.M. ve Seater, J.J. (1978), “The Inflation–Unemployment Trade-Off: A Critique of the Literature”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XVI. June, s. 499-544.
  • Snowdon, B. ve Vane, H.R. (2005) : Modern Macroeconomics, Its Origins, Development and Current State, Edward Elgar.
  • Taylor, John B. (1979) : “Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model”, American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No: 2, May, s. 108-113.
  • Taylor, John B. (1980). ‘Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts’, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 88, s. 1-22.
  • Tobin, J. (1972), “Inflation and Unemployment”, American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No:1, March, s.1-18.
  • Tobin, J. (1980) : “Stabilisation Policy Ten Years After”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1980, No : 1, s. 19-89.
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

G. Emel Akkuş This is me

Publication Date September 6, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2012 Volume: 62 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Akkuş, G. E. (2013). PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 62(2), 99-151.
AMA Akkuş GE. PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. September 2013;62(2):99-151.
Chicago Akkuş, G. Emel. “PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME”. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 62, no. 2 (September 2013): 99-151.
EndNote Akkuş GE (September 1, 2013) PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 62 2 99–151.
IEEE G. E. Akkuş, “PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 99–151, 2013.
ISNAD Akkuş, G. Emel. “PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME”. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 62/2 (September 2013), 99-151.
JAMA Akkuş GE. PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. 2013;62:99–151.
MLA Akkuş, G. Emel. “PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME”. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, vol. 62, no. 2, 2013, pp. 99-151.
Vancouver Akkuş GE. PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ: ENFLASYON-İŞSİZLİK DEĞİŞ-TOKUŞU TEORİK BİR İNCELEME. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. 2013;62(2):99-151.