Petrol Tüketiminin Durağanlık Özelliklerinin Araştırılması: OECD Ülkeleri için Ampirik Bir Analiz

Year 2022, , 121 - 137, 27.01.2022

Fatma Kızılkaya

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1030877

Abstract

Değişen ve gelişen dünyada üretim faaliyetleri enerji kaynaklarına bağımlıdır. Dünyada enerji ihtiyacının önemli bir bölümü fosil yakıtlardan elde edilmektedir. Ulaşım, inşaat, sanayi, konut ve elektrik üretimi gibi çeşitli ekonomik faaliyetlerde sıklıkla kullanılan petrol, doğal gaz ve kömür ile beraber üç ana fosil yakıt türünden biridir. Geniş kullanım alanı olan petrolün rezervlerinin sınırlı olması önemli bir sorundur. Enerji tüketimi ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki yakın ilişki nedeniyle, enerji tüketiminin durağanlık özelliğinin araştırılması politika yapıcılar için oldukça önemlidir. Enerji tüketimi serisinin durağan olması durumunda, enerji tüketimine gelen bir şok geçici olacaktır. Ancak enerji tüketimi durağan değilse, şokların etkisi kalıcı olacaktır. Bu çalışmada OECD ülkeleri için petrol tüketiminin durağanlık özelliği gösterip göstermediği araştırılmaktadır. Analizlerde 1965-2019 dönemleri ele alınmış ve hem keskin hem de yumuşak ve pürüzsüz kırılmaları göz önünde bulunduran panel durağanlık testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan panel durağanlık testinde keskin kırılmalar, kırılma tarihlerinin içsel olarak belirlendiği kukla değişkenler ile dikkate alınırken, yumuşak kırılmalar ise Fourier yaklaşımı ile dikkate alınmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular panelin geneli için petrol tüketimi serisinin durağan olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Petrol tüketimi serisi birim kök içermediğinden petrol tüketimine yönelik şokların geçici olduğu ve zamanla eski haline geri döneceği anlaşılmaktadır. Bireysel durağanlık testi sonuçlarına göre 23 ülke için petrol tüketimi serisi durağan olarak elde edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre, OECD ülkelerinde sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri için uygulanacak politikaların her ülke üzerinde farklı etkileri olabileceğini söylemek mümkündür.

Keywords

Petrol tüketimi, Panel durağanlık testi, Fourier, Enerji, OECD ülkeleri

Investigating the Stationarity Properties of Oil Consumption: an Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries

Abstract

In a changing and developing world, production activities are dependent on energy resources. A significant part of the energy needed in the world is obtained from fossil fuels. Petroleum is one of the three main types of fossil fuels, along with natural gas and coal, widely used in various economic activities such as transportation, construction, industry, housing, and electricity generation. The limited reserves of petroleum, which have a wide usage area, is a significant problem. Due to the close relationship between energy consumption and macroeconomic variables, policymakers must investigate the stationarity properties of energy consumption. If energy consumption is stationary, a shock to energy consumption will be temporary. However, if the energy consumption is not stationary, the effect of the shocks will be permanent. This study investigates whether oil consumption is stationary for OECD countries. The analyses are carried out using a panel stationarity test with sharp and smooth breaks for 1965-2019. In this test procedure, dummy variables, in which the break dates are determined endogenously, are used for sharp breaks, while the Fourier approach captures smooth breaks. The findings reveal that the oil consumption series is stationary for the panel. Since the oil consumption series does not include a unit root, it is understood that the shocks to oil consumption are temporary and will return to their previous state in time. According to the individual stationarity test results, the oil consumption series for 23 countries is obtained as stationary. According to these results, it is possible to say that the policies to be implemented for sustainable development goals in OECD countries may have different effects on each country.

Keywords

Oil consumption, Panel stationarity test, Fourier, Energy, OECD countries

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