Küresel Finansal Şokların Makroekonomik Dalgalanmalar ve Kamu Borcu Üzerindeki Rolü: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Maliye politikalarını tasarlarken dikkate alınması gereken önemli unsurlardan birisi küresel finansal koşullardır. Küresel finansal koşullar dışa açık gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik sermaye akımlarını ve yatırımları etkiler. Küresel finansal koşulların iyi olduğu dönemlerde özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin varlıklarına yönelik yatırımlar artmaktadır. Dolayısıyla pozitif küresel finansal koşulların varlığı gelişmekte olan ülkelerin borçlanma miktarını, maliyetini ve borç yapısını etkilemektedir. Küresel finansal koşullardaki bozulma ise tıpkı 2008 küresel finansal krizi ve 2020 COVID-19 pandemisinde olduğu gibi ülke ekonomileri üzerinde bozucu etkilere neden olmaktadır. Küresel finansal koşullar, kamu maliyesinin önemli bir bileşenidir ve kamu borcu üzerinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bir vektör otoregresif (VAR) modeli kullanan bu çalışma, 2003:1'den 2020:12'ye kadar küresel finansal risk şoklarının makroekonomik dalgalanmalar ve kamu borcu üzerindeki rolünü Türkiye için incelemeye çalışmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, küresel finansal risklerdeki pozitif standart sapmalık bir şokun kamu borcunu artırdığını göstermiştir. Bulgular, kamu borcunun küresel risk şokuna duyarlı olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Küresel finansal koşullar, dönem sonunda (2 yıl) kamu borcundaki değişikliklerin yaklaşık %12'sini oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın bulguları küresel finansal risk şoklarının makroekonomik dalgalanmalar üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu da göstermiştir. Bu bulgular, Türkiye'nin dış şoklara karşı kırılganlığının azaltılmasının kamu borcunun sürdürülebilirliği için kilit bir politika önceliği olduğunu ima etmektedir. Çünkü ülkenin dış şoklara duyarlılığı, bir kamu borcu krizi olasılığını artırabilir. Borç sürdürülebilirliği konusundaki endişelerden kaçınmak için, kamu borcundaki yabancı para cinsinden yükümlülüklerin payı azaltılmalıdır.

Keywords

• Küresel finansal riskler
• Makroekonomik dalgalanmalar
• Kamu borcu
• Türkiye
• VAR

The Role of Global Financial Risk Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Government Debt: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

Global financial conditions are one of the key elements that should be considered while formulating fiscal policy. Investments and capital inflows to small open emerging economies are impacted by global financial conditions. Investments in the assets of emerging economies rise during times of favorable global financial circumstances. Thus, the amount of borrowing, the cost of borrowing, and the debt structure of emerging economies are all impacted by the existence of favorable global financial conditions. In contrast, similar to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the 2008 global financial crisis, the worsening in global financial conditions has a negative impact on emerging economies. Global financial conditions are an important component of public finance and play a significant role in government debt. This study attempts to investigate the impact of global financial shock risks on macroeconomic fluctuations and government debt in Türkiye from 2003:1 to 2020:12 using a vector autoregressive model. The results of the analysis showed that a positive shock in global financial risks increases government debt. The findings pointed out that the government debt is sensitive to global shock risk. Global financial conditions account for approximately 12% of changes in government debt at the end of two years. The findings of this study also indicated that global financial shock risks have a significant impact on macroeconomic fluctuations. These findings imply that reducing vulnerability of Türkiye to external shocks is a key policy priority for the sustainability of government debt. Because the country's sensitivity to external shocks may enhance the likelihood of a government debt crisis. To avoid concerns about debt sustainability, the share of foreign currency liabilities in government debt should be reduced.

Keywords

• Global financial risks
• Macroeconomic fluctuations
• Government debt
• Türkiye
• VAR

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