The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Food Prices: A Time-Varying Causality Analysis for Selected Countries

Abstract

Phenomena such as global warming and climate change have caused food prices to increase alongside the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many driving forces have led food prices to increase, such as energy costs, exchange rates, and supply and demand quantities. Economic policy uncertainty has recently been discussed as one of these possible driving forces. This study aims to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and food prices. For this purpose, it examines the causal relationships between food inflation and global economic policy uncertainty in China, England, Germany, Hungary, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States. Symmetric causality findings point to the existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and food inflation only in the United States. According to the time-varying causality analysis findings, time-varying causality relationships existgoing from global economic policy uncertainty to food inflation in all countries. According to the analysis findings, the causality relationship from economic policy uncertainty to food prices was observed to have intensified during the COVID-19. Although the potential effects of economic policy uncertainty on food prices require more evidence, policymakers are considered to be able to stabilize food prices by using effective economic policy interventions.

Keywords

• Food prices
• Economic policy uncertainty
• Climate change
• COVID-19 pandemic
• Time-varying causality

Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliğinin Gıda Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Küresel ısınma ve iklim değişikliği gibi olgular, son yıllarda yaşanan Covid-19 Pandemisi’nin de etkisiyle gıda fiyatlarının artmasına nedenolmuştur. Gıda fiyatlarının artmasına neden olan enerji fiyatları, döviz kuru, arz ve talep miktarları gibi birçok itici güç bulunmaktadır. Ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin de bu itici güçlerden biri olabileceği, yakın dönemde tartışılmaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ekonomik politika belirsizliği ile gıda fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada Çin, İngiltere, Almanya, Macaristan, Güney Afrika, Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin gıda enflasyonlarıyla küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Simetrik nedensellik ilişkisi bulguları, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği ile yalnızca Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin gıda enflasyonu arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Zamanla değişen nedensellik analizi bulgularına göre, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliğinden ülkelerin tamamındaki gıda enflasyonuna doğru zamanla değişen nedensellik ilişkileri mevcuttur. Analiz bulgularına göre ayrıca, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinden gıda fiyatlarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin Covid-19 Pandemisi döneminde yoğunlaştığı gözlenmiştir. Ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin gıda fiyatları üzerindeki potansiyel etkileri daha fazla kanıta muhtaç olsa da politika yapıcıların, etkili ekonomi politikası müdahaleleriyle gıda fiyatlarında istikrarı sağlayabilecekleri düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Gıda fiyatları
• Ekonomik politika belirsizliği
• İklim değişikliği
• Covid-19 pandemisi
• Zamanla değişen nedensellik

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